Monday, September 2, 2013

My 'Have Nots'

As I do mock drafts and real drafts for fantasy football, I notice certain players I never get. I call them my Have Nots.
*I'll be using language from a normal espn ten team league.*


Alfred Morris - Morris usually goes in the first round, around the 9th pick. Here is why I have avoided him so far. His coach, Mike Shanahan, has always used multiple running backs. Running backs on a Shanahan team never have elite fantasy points. Starting running backs are always changing with Shanahan. Morris did very well last year, but I am scared Shanahan could find some other talent on the bench, and steal touches from Morris.

Also, Morris was a rookie last year. He could very well fall into that "sophomore slump." There are just too many risks to make Morris a round 1 pick. I would take him with maybe the 15th pick overall, mid second round. But in the 1st round, I want someone with less risks.

Players I am taking ahead of Morris - (in order) The top 8 projects RB's, Trent Richardson, LeSean McCoy (very underrated this year), Aaron Rodgers, and Calvin Johnson.

Stevan Ridley - Ridley usually goes in the early to mid second round. I don't hate Ridley, but a lot of people are too high on him. Ridley's coach Bill Belichick has always seen running backs as a dime a dozen. Who was the last Patriots running back to have 2 good fantasy years in a row?

Also, the Patriots have a QB named Tom Brady. He throws it a lot.

Also, the Patriots have an on-coming young stud named Shane Vereen that could steal touches from Ridley. They also got a monster LaMarcus Blount this off season that could steal touches from Ridley, particularly goal line touches thus taking away touchdowns.

Players I am taking ahead of Ridley - Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning.

Dez Bryant - He is going as the 2nd or 3rd WR, usually in round 2. I think he's good, but not that good. One problem I have with him is he always goes too high as a WR. I'm still looking for a 2nd RB or a QB. My other problem with Dez is I think Miles Austin is back and will take some targets away from Bryant. (I actually have Miles Austin on a lot of teams!)

Players I am taking ahead of Bryant - Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Chris Johnson, and Frank Gore.

All 3 Bronco Receivers - There are 3 receivers from Denver going ahead of many number 1 receivers. Peyton Manning only has one football. His two receivers did good last year, but now you add Welker to the mix, there's only one way to go, and that's less targets per receiver.

Demaryius Thomas is good but he's going as the 5th or 6th WR in the late 2nd round.

Players I am taking ahead of Thomas - Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Tom Brady,and Jimmy Graham.

Wes Welker. Who knows how he will fit in. He's going to take some targets away from Thomas and Decker, but how much? Also, Welker was nothing before Tom Brady. Now that he doesn't have Brady anymore, maybe we'll see his true colors again and he won't be very good.

Players I am taking ahead of Welker - Vincent Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, McFadden, Cruz, Amendola, Lacy, Murray, Colston, Kaepernick, RGIII, and Reggie Bush.

Eric Decker - He's projected to be the number 3 receiver for Denver, yet he's going ahead number 1 receivers. Peyton Manning is good, but he only has one football. He only has so much time in one game.

Players I am taking ahead of Decker - Reggie Bush, Rob Gronkowski, Matt Ryan, Lamar Miller, Reggie Wayne, Mike Wallace, Hakeem Nicks, Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Jordy Nelson, Russell Wilson, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Matt Stafford. 

All tight ends - All tight ends that aren't named Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski are too overrated. They all go too early. Graham and Gronk often go too early as well. Jason Witten and Vernon Davis are the 3rd and 4th TE being drafted. I believe they're risk/reward isn't much better than a Zach Sudfeld or a Jordan Cameron that you can get in the last 4 rounds. I like to keep my eye on Antonio Gates. I personally like him. I think he has pretty high potential. I try to get him in the 10th round if he is still there. Maybe late 9th.

Players I am taking ahead of Antonio Gates and other TE's
Greg Jennings, Andrew Luck, Michael Vick, Anquan Boldin, Miles Austin, T.Y. Hilton, Seattle Defence, San Francisco Defence,Steve Johnson
Players I am taking ahead of other TE's besides Gates
Bears Defence, Ben Tate, Kenbrell Thompkins, Kenny Britt, Emmanuel Sanders, Ben Roethlisberger, and the Steelers Defence.

*Keep in mind positions you've already drafted. EI: If you have 3 Rb's and 1 WR, you should probably draft Victor Cruz over Reggie bush, and vise-versa if you have 2 Rb's and 2 or 3 WR's.*

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