Sunday, August 18, 2013

My Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

The NFL is just a few weeks away and that means it's time for Fantasy Football. My draft was last week. In this article i will talk about the draft. I'll tell all my strategies before the draft, give insights for all my picks, and give a conclusion at the end.

Our league is H2H. A team consists of QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, FLEX, DEF, K and six bench spots (typical ESPN settings). Our league has 12 teams this year (we only had 10 last year). Here was my pre-draft strategy by position:

RB - Two years ago, I picked Adrian Peterson with my first pick, and he got hurt. I spent the rest of the season struggling to find a good #2 running back. Last year I waited too long to draft good running backs, so I again spent the season with a bad #2 RB. Since it was hard to find a good RB on waivers with 10 teams, it is going be even harder with 12 teams. I decided this year to in order to avoid that I was to get 3 good running backs in the first 4 or 5 rounds. Also I would like 1 or 2 starting RBs with high potential on my bench.

QB - I reached both of the last two years on QB and it did not serve me well. (Philip Rivers 2 years ago and Matthew Stafford last year.) This year QB is really deep. I was determined to let other people reach for QB's. I would wait and get someone like Colin Kaepernick and a high risk/reward back up like Michael Vick.

WR - Usually i find WR is a lot deeper than RB. If you think about it, usually an NFL team will have one RB that gets a lot of fantasy points, and the 2nd string RB doesn't do hardly anything. WR, however, can help you even at the 2nd or 3rd string (ei: White/Jones, Decker/Welker/Thomas, Nelson/Cobb/Jones...). I would like to have a solid WR, maybe with my 2nd or 3rd pick, but I don't want to reach for a WR. I believe you could find a serviceable WR later on in the draft and even on the waivers. Serviceable RB's, however, are usually gone a lot sooner and much harder to find on waivers.

TE - Whoever has Jimmy Graham has a big advantage over everyone else. He is much better than the rest of the TE's. However - I don't want to use a high pick for him when I could get a solid RB2 or a good WR1 instead. If I don't get Graham, then I am going to wait and wait and wait on TE. The next batch after Graham are all overrated. Tony Gonzalez, Vernon Davis, and Jason Witten will surely go too early. Rudolph, Olson, and Daniels as well. If Gronk or Antonio Gates slip, I would take them. The is however high risk for both.

DEF - The Seahawks and the 49ers are the two best. I like the Bears too. For those three I would start looking for them around rounds 7 or 8. If they're all gone then I'm waiting a bit longer. Hopefully I can get the Steelers in a later round.

K - I am not touching a kicker until the last or second to last round.

Actual Draft

I got the 8th pick out of twelve. I would rather be close to the end like the 10th or 11th. But It's ok. I will still dominate.

(PS) - One guy picked 49ers players almost the whole time, so this was almost like an 11 team league instead of 12..

Round (Overall)
1st (8th) - Jamaal Charles. I knew I wanted a top running back with my 1st pick and i got it.
2nd (17th) - Drew Brees. I was going to wait on QB's, but the RB's and WR's I would have picked were all gone. I hoped that someone like Trent Richardson or Calvin Johnson would fall to me, but they didn't. Aaron Rodgers was also gone, or I would have picked him over Brees.
        I could have picked Stevan Ridley. However I feel he's a big risk. As a patriots fan, I know Bill Belichick sees RB's as a dime a dozen. When was the last time the Patriots had the same, good fantasy RB 2 years in a row? With Tom Brady at the helm, you know they're going to throw a lot. 24 year old Shane Vereen and newly acquired LeGarrette Blount could significantly cut into Ridley's goal line touches, and maybe even take the starting job from him. So I will pass on any RB for the New England Patriots.
        I also could have pick Matt Forte but i didn't want to reach on anyone and that would have been a big reach. Hopefully he will fall to me in the 3rd round?
        I feel that Brees was no steal at 17 but neither was he a reach. It will be nice to have a great QB for a change instead of Rivers or Stafford throwing interceptions all season.
3rd (32nd) - Chris Johnson. Well Forte didn't make it out of the 2nd round. Staying true to my RB strategy, I picked who i felt was the best RB at the time. Plus, there wasn't a WR there worth a 3rd round pick. (Gone were Marshall, Jones, White, Cruz, Green, Bryant, and Thomas.)
4th (41st) - Darren McFadden. In between my last pick and this, Jones-Drew, Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson were all picked. Once again, I would have to reach for a WR, so I took who i felt was the best RB available. Plus I feel that after McFadden, there is a huge drop off at RB. (Sproles was the next best RB. No thanks!)
5th (56th) - Danny Amendola. I have 3 RB and a QB. I have the talent and depth at RB i wanted. Now it's time to draft 2 or 3 WR's in a row. Welker almost fell to me but went 50th. Reggie Wayne went 53rd. I really like Amendola's talent. I like even more that he is Tom Brady's number one target. He has high reward potential. (Tom Brady hooking up with Amendola in the pre-season --> http://nfl.univision.com/videos/video/2013-08-16/danny-amendola-anoto-su-primer-td-como-patriot)
6th (65th) - Mike Wallace. Antonio Brown went 64th. I liked Wallace more last week when i drafted him than today, but I still think he has high potential. He used to be a top receiver a few years ago. If he can develop some chemistry with his new QB, he could be a solid WR2 for me. (33 yard gain -->  http://www.miamidolphins.com/multimedia/videos/Highlight_Tannehill_To_Wallace_For_33Yard_Gain/54bda4a8-f89b-4641-9858-0568f162eea8)
7th (80th) - DeSean Jackson. With Amendola's risk injury and Wallace's risk of sucking, I wanted to use my next pick for a 3rd WR. Jackson is someone who has the talent to be great. Maybe with a new coach and with Maclin out, he will be worth it. He can be my WR2 if something bad happens to someone else.
8th (89th) - Chris Ivory. I've been keeping my eye on TE, DEF, and backup QB, but they're all going too early. The good DEFs (including Seattle, San Fran, Chicago, Denver and Houston) are all gone. The top 9 TE's are all gone. Big Ben, Eli, and Romo all went last round. Picking Flaco or Vick would be too much a reach. So i picked a starting RB with some good potential.
9th (104th) - Rashard Mendenhall. All the starting RB's are almost all gone. I took one of the last ones. Mendenhall has talent potential. I don't expect to start Mendenhall very often (if ever), but having him on the bench just in case of injuries or bye weeks will be nice.
10th (113th) - Kenny Britt. TE, DEF, and QB are still being reached on too much. Flaco and Vick are gone. Britt has high potential if he can stay healthy. With my WR's being risks, It's good to have some depth just incase there is more risk that reward.
11th (128th) - Pittsburgh DEF - I have 5 RB's and 4 WR's. I'm probably not going to pick anymore RB or WR. I only have two bench spots left anyway. It's time to pick something else. I like the steelers as much as anyone after Seattle, San Fran, and Chicago. They have a pretty soft schedule their first few games, and they are the Steelers. The steel curtain. They have a defensive tradition in Pittsburgh. I trust them just as much as I trust the Patriots, Broncos, or Bengals who all went several rounds earlier.
12th (137th) - Martellus Bennett. I'm a Bears fan. Hopefully Marc Trestman will turn the bears into a more offensive team, and Bennett can be a big part of it. Plus I don't think he's any worse than other TE's drafted several rounds before him (Daniels, Gresham and Fleener).
13th (152nd) - Dustin Keller. He's had some good chemistry with Tannehill. Maybe he'll be a top 10 or 12 TE? Update 8/18/2013 - Dustin Keller is out for the year after his knee injury yesterday. I picked up Zach Sudfeld to replace him. Sudfeld is Aaron Hernandez'  replacement on the Patriots and should be a good backup. At least until Gronkowski is back.
14th (161st) - Alex Smith. Best QB left. New team, new coach... maybe he'll be good? Hopefully it won't matter since I have Drew Brees anyway.
15h (176th) - Robbie Gould. Last pick, I needed a kicker... Kickers are pretty much a 'crap shoot' anyway. Besides being a bears fan, I picked Gould because of his opportunity. The Bears have a history of being unable to move the chains and get into the endzone. There should be plenty of opportunity for Gould to kick field goals. And he has plenty of job security. He is the bears kicker now and has been for a while.

In conclusion, I am happy with my team this year. I think I did the best with the position I had. I got a lot of people I like without having to reach too much. Barring an injury to Charles or Brees, I have no doubt i'll get into the playoffs this year.