Saturday, October 25, 2014

3 Myths About LeBron James' Shooting and Scoring abilities

While discussing sports with colleagues and acquaintances, I've heard some very silly things said about LeBron James that just are not true. Mostly about his scoring and his shooting. Whether or not LeBron James is a pass first / defense first type player or not, his scoring and shooting ability is among the best if not the best in the league.



Myth 1: LeBron is not an elite scorer.

FACT: In the past decade, no other player has been as good of a scorer as LeBron James when it comes to total points. In the last 10 years, LeBron James is the only one to finish in the top FOUR in points per game every single year:


(Green-underline is LeBron, black is Kobe Bryant)

That's amazing scoring talent combine with incredible consistency.

FACT: The only player that's even close to him is Kobe Bryant, who's finished in the the top four for eight of those ten years (finished 5th three years ago and didn't play last year). So over the last decade, LeBron and Kobe have pretty much been in a scoring league all of their own.

FACT: For a "pass first player" to finish top 4 in PPG for 10 straight years, that's insane. Finishing ahead of or right behind the other best scorers in the league every year, most notably Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, and Kevin Durant. And he's the only one to do it every single year for the last decade. If LeBron were to take more shots, he would obviously score even more points. If LeBron were a shoot first player like those other guys, he would likely win the scoring title every single year.

FACT: LeBron's FG% is much higher than all those guys as well. That means he's finished in the top 4 in scoring every year for 10 years and he's done it by taking less shots than all those guys every year!

Career FG%
LeBron James      - .497
Kevin Durant       - .479
Carmelo Anthony - .455
Kobe Bryant        - .454
Allen Iverson        - .425

and LeBron is just getting better and better. Last year he shot .565. That was behind only 4 players that just dunk the ball all the time (DeAndre Jordan, Dwight Howard, JaVale McGee, and Serge Ibaka). Durant was 27th overall at Carmelo was 71 overall.



Myth 2: LeBron is not a SHOOTER like Kobe is or those other guys are. When it comes to Jump Shots, LeBron is not good.

FACT: LeBron is a great jump shooter. Here is a website where you can measure a players FG% counting ONLY jump shots: (here)

As always, let me do the grunt work for you so you don't have to:




(That's hard to see but you can use that link and look it up yourselves if you can't see it and don't believe me.)

Interpretation:  I took the "jump shot % only" stat from 2012-2013 season for the following players:

LeBron James - 39.8%
Ray Allen - 39.7%
Kevin Durant - 37.8%
Carmelo A. - 37.3%
Stephen Curry - 33.5%
Kobe Bryant - 31.4%

That's LeBron James leading all those guys in JUMP SHOTS. Does he lead all of them in jump shots every year? Probably not. But he's always right up there with the best of the best. LeBron James is one of the best jump shooters in the game.

Just for fun, here is Derrick Rose in his MVP season jump shots:


31.9% ....that's right around Kobe range but not quite up to LeBron / Melo / Durant level.




Myth 3: LeBron can't shoot 3 pointers like MJ, Kobe, and the rest of them. He is a bad three-point shooter.

FACT: Here is a list of the top 20 all time scorers (who shot a lot of threes) and their 3P% (with LeBron added to prove a point).


Reggie Miller             -   39.47 %
Dirk Nowitzki            -  38.18 %
LeBron James           -   34.10 %
Kobe Bryant             -   33.50 %
Michael Jordan          -   32.68 %
Dominique Wilkins     -  31.87 %
Allen Iverson             -   31.30 %


LeBron is surely no Reggie Miller or Steph Curry when it comes to three point shooters, but to say he's a bad three point shooter is like saying MJ or Kobe are bad three point shooters. His percentages are better than Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, Dominique Wilkins and Allen Iverson at 3 pointers. Say what you will about LeBron's three point shooting abilities, but whatever you say the same goes for Kobe's and MJ's three pointers. Like I said, he's not going to lead the league in threes. 34% isn't "great." However, it does put him right up there with (in fact just ahead of) great shooters like Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan.

(PS. He has improved at his 3 pointers. His last 3 seasons he averaged .362 .406 .379 respectively)


Bottom Line: 

scoring: LeBron James has finished in the top 4 in points per game for 10 years straight (for some perspective - Carmelo Anthony, who some believe to be the best scorer in the NBA, has only SIX finishes in the top FIVE in those last ten years). LeBron has also won a scoring title and has been shooting 56.6% for the last 2 years. LeBron James IS a top scorer and arguably the best scorer in the NBA.

jump shots: LeBron is a great jump shooter.

three pointers: LeBron's 3 point shooting is on par with, in fact just ahead of, Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant.



Update: 12/9/2014 - Can't believe I didn't share this stat when I first wrote this post. LeBron James is 3rd all time in career PPG right behind the two best scorers of all time: Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain. LeBron is one of the best scorer's this league has ever seen. To think otherwise is just ignorance.





Update:  12/17/2016 - LeBron's is on a monster streak of scoring at least 10 points in a game. Right now he's at 739 straight games. That's 3rd best streak behind only Kareem and MJ. Well ahead of everyone else.





Saturday, October 11, 2014

The new Brady vs Manning debate

The classic Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning. Two legends nearing the end of their careers. But two players have been set up to take their place. These two players are so similar to the two legends they are taking over for.

Wilson vs Luck.
Brady vs Peyton.

Here's how the debate goes:

Player A - Peyton Manning = Andrew Luck
Player B - Tom Brady = Russell Wilson

Player A was the 1st overall draft pick. Player A had been hyped up since high school as the next big deal. Player A was picked to be the future of the franchise. Player A has great offensive weapons. Player A puts up stats like crazy and always makes the playoffs every year. Player A totals up yards and passing TD's like it's nobody's business.

Players B was drafted late in the draft, well after the first round, in the same draft as Player A. Player B was drafted to be a back-up QB. Player B also has great numbers, but Player A's overall yards and TD's overshadow Player B's overall stats. Player B also makes the playoffs every year. However, Player B always has more playoff success. He has been to and won more superbowls than Player A.

Player A has overall better stats, but can be negated by having had better offensive weapons than Player B. Also, perhaps playing in a Indianapolis dome with perfect controlled weather conditions has helped when throwing the ball vs Player B other playing consistently in cold, snow, rain, and/or just play out bad outdoor weather in (Boston/Seattle).

Player B has more superbowl rings and a much better playoff record (Player A actually has a losing record in the playoffs), but Player B has also had a much better defense. ("Defense wins championships.")

Player A has throw for much more yards. Player B has thrown much less interceptions.

Player A has had good coaches, but Player B always had an all-time great coach in (Belichick/Carroll).

So who's better? They guy who played with the better offense, worse defense, played in perfect dome weather, and accumulating much more overall stats? Or the guy with a better defense, worse offensive weapons, much less total stats but amazing ratios and great stats none-the-less, and much more playoff success?



What do you think?
















update 1/18/2015 - With Russell Wilson and Tom Brady both getting to the superbowl, and with Luck and Manning both with another early exit, my doppelganger theory is growing stronger. Here are the 3-year side-by-side stats (in picture form) -