The Utah Jazz Potential 3 Point Problem

Here is the potential starting 5 I heard for the Utah Jazz this season and their perspective 3P% over the last two season:

• Walker Kessler (non 3P shooter)
• John Collins (32.2 3PT)
• Lauri Markkanen (37.7 3PT)
• Jordan Clarkson (32.7 3PT)
• Collin Sexton (35.3 3PT)

That is three players shooting under 33% from 3 over the last two season, and at 35%, and one just under 38%.

That might be the worst 3-point shooting starting 5 in the entire NBA!

Last season, the Utah Jazz were starting Kelly Olynyk (shot 39.4 3PT) and Mike Conley (39.7% 3PT) along with Lauri Markkanen. So this season would a huge downgrade in spacing for the Utah Jazz is that is truly their starting lineup.

For reference, here are the two #1 seeds from last season:

Denver Nuggets

• Nikola Jokic (38.3% 3PT)
• Aaron Gordon (34.7% 3PT)
• Michael Porter Jr. (41.4% 3PT)
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (42.3% 3PT)
• Jamal Murray (39.8% 3PT)

Not a single player under 34% 3PT. After Aaron Gordon, not a single player under 38% 3PT. NONE of the projected starting 5 for the Utah Jazz shot over 38% over the last two season.

Milwaukee Bucks.

• Brook Lopez (37.4% 39T)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (27.5% 3PT)
• Jevon Carter (42.1% 3PT)
• Grayson Allen (39.9% 3PT)
• Jrue Holiday (38.4% 3PT)

Four of the five players shot over 37% from three.

In today's NBA, I think the Utah Jazz will struggle to win games if they starting lineup consists of 4 players that shoot under 35% from three.

Solution?

Lets take a look at the starting lineup for the Utah Jazz at the beginning of last season when they were surprising a lot of people and winning more games than they were supposed to; before they made that big trade to send away Mike Conley, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley.

• Jarred Vanderbilt (33.3% 3PT. Started more games than Walker Kessler despite getting traded at the deadline.)
• Kelly Olynyk (39.4% 3PT. Started the most games of any Jazz player last season.)
• Lauri Markkanen (same)
• Jordan Clarkson (same)
• Mike Conley (40.2% 3PT over the last 3 season)

In this roster, instead of a none shooter in Kessler, they had Jarred Vanderbilt who wasn't great but could knock down an open corner 3. Instead of John Collins shooting 32% 3PT, they had Kelly Olynyk shooting almost 40% 3PT. And instead of Sexton (or THT or Dunn), they had Mike Conley shooting 40% from three.

The Utah Jazz don't have Mike Conley anymore, but they still have Kelly Olynyk that started 68 games last season knocking down nearly 40% of his three.

If the Jazz started John Collins in the Jarred Vanderbilt spot with Lauri & Olynyk, bringing Walker Kessler off the bench, that would immediately make their spacing infinitely better.

Plus, another huge weakness in the original projected starting lineup is passing. Kelly Olynyk is the best passer on this Utah Jazz roster by a large margin. Putting him into the starting lineup immediately helps that huge problem too.

A third (and much smaller) reason to start Kelly Olynyk is that is spacing and passing helps other players play better on the court. So if the Utah Jazz are planning on being active at the trade deadline, starting Kelly Olynyk would help increase the value of their tradable contracts (Jordan Clarkson, John Collins, Collin Sexton...).

Grading Utah Jazz 2023 Off-season Moves

Spencer Keele 7/21/23

Taylor Hendricks, Brice Sensabaugh, & others watch Keytonte George in the Summer League

Drafting Taylor Hendricks #9: A+

Passing on the "obvious choice" in previous drafts always seems to backfire on the Utah Jazz. For example, the Jazz drafted Udoka Azubuike in 2020 when everybody expected them to pick Jaden McDaniels or Desmond Bane. The Utah Jazz had two "obvious choices" here, but they overthought it and took the wrong guy. (Honestly, drafting Azubuike might be the biggest reason former GM Dennis Lindsey is no longer with the Jazz and is now in the Dallas Mavericks' front office.)

I feel like Danny Ainge deserves a lot of credit for drafting Taylor Hendricks. Reaching for someone like Keyonte George or Nick Smith Jr at 9 is totally something the old Utah Jazz front office would have done.

I absolutely love that the Jazz picked the best player available at 9: the "obvious choice." Taylor Hendricks is a great defender and shooter, with awesome size, a high motor, and high character.

Drafting Keyonte George #16: A-

Tony Jones (covers the Utah Jazz and the NBA for The Athletic) says that Keyonte George was a serious contender for the Jazz at 9. I love that the Jazz still got Keyonte at 16 when they almost took him at 9!

Personally I had Cam Whitmore as my pick for the Utah Jazz at 16 but Keyonte George already seems to be proving me wrong! Keyonte looked awesome in both the SLC Summer League and the Las Vegas Summer League (before rolling his ankle). His decision making and control of the offense was amazing for a 19-year-old. He was getting teammates involved early and then was able to score when the team needed him to. He seemed to make the perfect decision with the ball everytime - whether it was to pass or shoot. He could get to the free-throw line and make his free throws. He had a great assist-to-turnover ratio. Keyonte was also noticeably improving from game to game as he diligently watched film. Many sports media members even say he looked like the BEST player in the Summer League! (To be fair it was Cam Whitmore that ended up winning the Las Vegas Summer League MVP, but who knows what would have happened in Keyonte didn't roll his ankle...)

Drafting Brice Sensabaugh #28: A+

Huge boom-or-bust potential. Brice could easily be the steal of the draft. Honestly this was the player I would have picked at #28. To me, Brice looked like a mix of "scrappy James Harden" & "3-point shooting DeMar DeRozan" in college. He has an amazing ability to score and can do it in so many ways. He can get his shot off against anybody. Amazing jump shot that is just un-guardable. Can get to the rim with ease. He shot over 40% from 3. He looks effortless when getting to his spots like James Harden. And he was able to do that on an Ohio State team that had very bad spacing. He could really explode on a team with great spacing like the Utah Jazz.

Brice was seen as the 3rd best shooter in the entire draft and he is an underrated passer. Brice was a lot higher than #28 on many draft boards. In fact, the Utah Jazz say that as Brice began to fall down the draft, a lot of teams started calling the Utah Jazz trying to move up.

If his scoring and shooting can translate to the NBA level, Brice Sensabaugh could be a superstar in my opinion.

Trading for John Collins: A

The Jazz were in the perfect position to take a gamble on a large contract that a team wanted to get off of, like John Collins, and try to build value.

If the Utah Jazz are able to build John Collins' value, he could end up being a nice trade piece or even better, John Collins could end up being a long term piece on this Utah Jazz roster. At still only 25-years-old, the 6'9" Collins has seen his numbers drop consistently over the last four seasons. And coming off a nasty finger injury, John Collins is hoping to show that he can get back to his 2020 numbers when he averaged nearly 22 PPG on 40% 3PT (as opposed to the 13 PPG on 29% 3PT last season). The cost of trading for John Collins besides taking on the contract? Rudy Gay & a 2nd. So practically free. The Jazz might have been willing to give a 2nd round pick to get off of Rudy Gay's contract honestly. (The Hawks ended up re-trading Rudy Gay and now Gay has been waived by the Thunder and has yet to sign with another team.)

Extending Jordan Clarkson: B

The Clarkson’s extension feels... anticlimactic. The Utah Jazz traded Mike Conley, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and 2 second round picks at the trade deadline for 1 protected first round pick and the opportunity to buy out Russell Westbrook so they can have a lot of cap space this offseason. And how do they use a huge chunk of the freed-up cap space? To restructure Jordan Clarkson's contract to give him a lot more money next year and then extend him beyond next season.

This feels like the Jazz stuck out in free agency and had nothing to do with all that cap space they traded Mike Conley for so they ended up overpaying Jordan Clarkson as plan B (or more like plan Z).

To be fair, I actually love how the contract is structured: with almost 50% of the three year deal frontloaded into the 1st year. It is a good value contract! Especially as time goes on.

The problem is that Jordan Clarkson is just not a good fit for this current Jazz roster: he is a bad 3pt shooter / bad defense who’s best skill by far is getting his own bucket in isolation. The Jazz need their younger point guards / combo guards (Collin Sexton, Keyonte George, Brice Sensabaugh, Talen Horton-Tucker, etc.) to get reps - not watch Jordan Clarkson in isolation. The Jazz need veterans who can space the floor for their younger players, play defense, and/or pass the ball. A veteran bucket-getter is the last thing this young roster needs.

On the positive side, the Utah Jazz are in "asset accumulation mode" right now. They aren't looking for perfect roster fits since they aren't quite contenders yet - so getting Jordan Clarkson on a good value contract is a good move; even if he's not a good fit with the rest of the roster.

Jordan Clarkson is also well liked in Utah by the Jazz front office and is a fan favorite, so keeping him around goes beyond his fit with the roster or overall talent. A lot of people in Utah are very happy that Jordan Clarkson will be returning to the Utah Jazz next season.

As potential long-term fit with this Jazz roster: Jordan Clarkson actually showed signs of being a good facilitator at the start of last season. While the Utah Jazz don't need a veteran bucket-getting SG, they really missed Mike Conley's veteran presence as a facilitating PG after he was traded at last season's trade deadline. If Clarkson can find a way to become more of a combo guard that efficiently runs an offense that doesn't turn the ball over too much (like he was at the beginning of last season), instead of being a bucket-seeking, turnover prone SG (like he reverted back to after the first 15-20 games last season), perhaps he actually could be a good fit with this new look young Jazz roster after all.

If not, at least JC's contract should be enticing at the Trade Deadline and is overall good value for any team.