Wednesday, August 16, 2023

The Utah Jazz Potential 3 Point Problem

Here is the potential starting 5 I heard for the Utah Jazz this season and their perspective 3P% over the last two season:

  • Walker Kessler (non 3P shooter)
  • John Collins (32.2 3PT)
  • Lauri Markkanen (37.7 3PT)
  • Jordan Clarkson (32.7 3PT)
  • Collin Sexton (35.3 3PT)

That is three players shooting under 33% from 3 over the last two season, and at 35%, and one just under 38%.

That might be the worst 3-point shooting starting 5 in the entire NBA!

Last season, the Utah Jazz were starting Kelly Olynyk (shot 39.4 3PT) and Mike Conley (39.7% 3PT) along with Lauri Markkanen. So this season would a huge downgrade in spacing for the Utah Jazz is that is truly their starting lineup.

For reference, here are the two #1 seeds from last season:

Denver Nuggets

  • Nikola Jokic (38.3% 3PT)
  • Aaron Gordon (34.7% 3PT)
  • Michael Porter Jr. (41.4% 3PT)
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (42.3% 3PT)
  • Jamal Murray (39.8% 3PT)
Not a single player under 34% 3PT. After Aaron Gordon, not a single player under 38% 3PT. NONE of the projected starting 5 for the Utah Jazz shot over 38% over the last two season.

Milwaukee Bucks.

  • Brook Lopez (37.4% 39T)
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (27.5% 3PT)
  • Jevon Carter (42.1% 3PT)
  • Grayson Allen (39.9% 3PT)
  • Jrue Holiday (38.4% 3PT)

Four of the five players shot over 37% from three.



In today's NBA, I think the Utah Jazz will struggle to win games if they starting lineup consists of 4 players that shoot under 35% from three.


Solution?


Lets take a look at the starting lineup for the Utah Jazz at the beginning of last season when they were surprising a lot of people and winning more games than they were supposed to; before they made that big trade to send away Mike Conley, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley.
  • Jarred Vanderbilt (33.3% 3PT. Started more games than Walker Kessler despite getting traded at the deadline.)
  • Kelly Olynyk (39.4% 3PT. Started the most games of any Jazz player last season.)
  • Lauri Markkanen (same)
  • Jordan Clarkson (same)
  • Mike Conley (40.2% 3PT over the last 3 season)

In this roster, instead of a none shooter in Kessler, they had Jarred Vanderbilt who wasn't great but could knock down an open corner 3. Instead of John Collins shooting 32% 3PT, they had Kelly Olynyk shooting almost 40% 3PT. And instead of Sexton (or THT or Dunn), they had Mike Conley shooting 40% from three.

The Utah Jazz don't have Mike Conley anymore, but they still have Kelly Olynyk that started 68 games last season knocking down nearly 40% of his three.

If the Jazz started John Collins in the Jarred Vanderbilt spot with Lauri & Olynyk, bringing Walker Kessler off the bench, that would immediately make their spacing infinitely better.

Plus, another huge weakness in the original projected starting lineup is passing. Kelly Olynyk is the best passer on this Utah Jazz roster by a large margin. Putting him into the starting lineup immediately helps that huge problem too.

A third (and much smaller) reason to start Kelly Olynyk is that is spacing and passing helps other players play better on the court. So if the Utah Jazz are planning on being active at the trade deadline, starting Kelly Olynyk would help increase the value of their tradable contracts (Jordan Clarkson, John Collins, Collin Sexton...).