Saturday, October 2, 2021

Playing Around with Ben Simmons Trades

Today I saw a tweet from 76ers beat writer Keith Pompey saying "A league source said the Timberwolves, Pacers, Cavaliers, Pistons, Raptors and Spurs are still inquiring about Ben Simmons’ availability."

There are two main things I do not like about this tweet for the 76ers.

The first thing I don't like for the 76ers is that is it sounds too reactive on Philly's part. Why are teams calling them instead of the other way around? The 76ers need to be proactive in trading Ben Simmons. The Sixers should be calling teams that have the players they want, not waiting around for teams to call them. There needs to be some urgency here. Preseason is important if you're trying to win a championship. The Sixers would be much better off making a trade sooner than later. Joel Embiid is the reining MVP runner up; despite playing only 51 regular season games last year. He turns 28 in March. Philly can't afford to waste this season. Embiid probably only has a 2-4 years left in his prime; and bigs with injury histories tend to decline fast. The Sixers should be trying to trade Simmons ASAP so they can focus on trying to win a championship with Embiid while they still can.

The second thing I don't like about this tweet for the 76ers is that none of those six teams have an elite player that is ready to win a ring now with Embiid. Embiid needs someone that can initiate the offense and bring the ball up. Philly already has good shooters and good wing players (Seth Curry, Danny Green, Tobias Harris...). If I were the 76ers, I would be looking for an established, proven All Star floor general that compliments Joel Embiid. I don't want picks. I don't want 20 year olds with potential that need to develop over the next 3+ years. The Sixers don't have 3 years to develop a rookie in place of Ben Simmons. Like I said, they have maybe a 2-4 year window with prime Joel Embiid. They need a floor general that's also in his prime. None of the six teams in the tweet have a player that fits that description.

That said, which players do fit that description?

If I am the 76ers, my "wish list" would probably look something like this:
  1. Luka
  2. Steph
  3. Harden
  4. Dame
  5. CP3
  6. Butler
  7. Kyrie
  8. Beal
  9. Westbrook
  10. Conley

Most of those players are probably untouchable. But, part of being "Proactive" is doing your due diligence. Call the Mavs. Ask them about Luka. "Would you trade Luka for Ben Simmons and 3 first round picks? If not, what if we get a third team involved? Is there any player in the NBA you would trade Luka for? If yes, we'll call them right now and see if we can work something out."

If not, start going down the list. Luka, Steph, and Harden are probably untouchable. But call those teams anyway and see if there's anything you can work out.

Dame Lillard is an interesting one to me.

Portland barely made the playoffs last year. Portland then lost in the first round to a Nuggets team that was missing Jamal Murray.

It's time for Portland face reality: their current team is not a title contender. If they can trade Dame Lillard for an Godfather package of young players and picks, they should do it and get a huge headstart on a rebuild. It's a good business move; but they could spin it as "we owe it to Dame to trade him to a contender."

Portland probably isn't interested in Ben Simmons. So now we look back at the initial tweet. I don't know what those six teams are willing to trade for Ben Simmons, but I'm sure they all include young talent and/or several 1st round draft picks. Let Portland pick which package they like better. Maybe the Timberwolves are willing to trade Anthony Edwards and a first round pick in order to pair Ben Simmons with KAT and D-Lo. Philly would add more first round picks as well. Maybe something like this:




The Timberwolves get Ben Simmons like they wanted. The 76ers get what they were looking for - an elite point that has the same window of prime window as Joel Embiid. Dame and Embiid can try to win a championship in the next 2-4 years. Portland gets a young player with potential and 4-5 first round draft pick - a huge head start in a rebuild.

If Portland says no, keep going down the list.

CP3 and Jimmy Butler are probably untouchable.

Kyrie for Ben Simmons makes a lot of sense, but I doubt Kevin Durant will let the Nets do that.

Maybe the Wizards are willing to do a trade Beal for Simmons?

If none of those work, I would look into a Ben Simmons for Russell Westbrook trade. Westbrook isn't at the top of my wish list if I'm the Sixers, but he IS on the list. Pairing Westbrook with Embiid would be a great duo, and surrounded by Seth Curry, Danny Green, and Tobias Harris filling out the starting 5, they would be serious title contenders for the rest of Embiid's prime.

LeBron James has always been vocal about how much he likes Ben Simmons. At this point in their careers, Simmons probably has a lot more valuable than Westbrook, so I think the Lakers are willing to do a trade like this.. Maybe something like:




(It wouldn't be the first time LeBron has traded Ben Simmons for Russell Westbrook.)





If the Lakers say no, keep going down the list. 

If nobody else is interested dealing with the 76ers, the Utah Jazz should be willing to work something out. Mike Conley was an All Star last year. Conley was 2nd in league in plus/minus last season at +548 and was a huge reason way the Jazz got the #1 overall seed.

Mike Conley fits everything Philly needs to be title contenders for rest of Embiid's prime. He is a proven elite floor general that has made deep playoff runs with Marc Gasol and Rudy Gobert. He is deadly from 3 if you go under on screens. Imagine what he and Embiid could do together.

The other thing Philly could really use is a player that can create his own shot and get a bucket. Coincidentally, 6th man of the year Jordan Clarkson's contract plus Mike Conley's contract adds up perfectly to match Ben Simmon's contract. A line up for Embiid, Tobias, Green, Curry, and Conley with Clarkson coming off the bench would be legit title contenders for the rest of Embiid's prime.

But why would the Utah Jazz do this?

Building around 25 year old Donovan Mitchell is a tricky situation. He is only 6'1 and needs the ball in his hands. 33 year old, 6'1 Mike Conley has worked ok playing next to Mitchell, but is not an ideal backcourt with Donovan. First of all, it is almost impossible to play two short players under 6'2 at the same time in today's NBA. You can hide one short player, but not two. Secondly, Mitchell just turned 25. In 2-4 years, Conley will be out of his prime right when Mitchell is entering his. If Conley retires when Donovan Mitchell is 29, that is obviously not ideal. And thirdly, Conley is also best with the ball in his hands, so he doesn't compliment Mitchell's game as well as another guard could.

Honestly, it is extremely difficult to win the NBA championship if your best player is a short guard. The only team that has done that in the last 30 years is the 2015 Warriors with Steph Curry. His backcourt partner was 6'6, Mr. never-needs-to-dribble Klay Thompson. The Jazz should probably be looking for a Klay Thompson type player to put in the backcourt with Donovan Mitchell.

I do not believe the Jazz would be interested in Ben Simmons. With Rudy Gobert already on the team, having two players that won't shoot from long distance makes it very hard to win in today's NBA. Plus, Utah is probably the 2nd-to-last team Ben Simmons wants to play for besides Philadelphia (Simmons has thrown shade towards both Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert in the past). So we look at those six teams in the original tweet that wants Ben Simmons as a 3rd team in a trade.

The player that's jumping out the most to me for the Utah Jazz is Malcolm Brogdon. What are the Pacers wanting to trade for Ben Simmons? If Brogdon is on the table, he would be that taller, lengthy guard next to Donovan Mitchell in the backcourt. He shoots the three well. Add either Jeremy Lamb or T.J. Warren maybe a pick or two, and that might be enough for all three teams involved. Maybe something like this:




The 76ers get both of their needs filled with All Star floor general Mike Conley and the deadly create-his-own-shot 6MOY Jordan Clarkson. This puts the Sixers as legit title contenders for the rest of Embiid's prime. The Pacers get Ben Simmons like they wanted. And the Jazz get younger and build around Donovan Mitchell better. 

Looking at the other teams in the initial tweet... I have no idea what the Pistons are trying to offer for Ben Simmons, but if Jerami Grant (a perfect PF next to Rudy Gobert) and 6'8 guard Cade Cunningham (maybe the perfect guard next to Donovan Mitchell) are on the table, that should be a huge yes from the Jazz.


(Personally I don't think the Pistons would do this, but then again, I would have never thought the Pistons would be interested in Ben Simmons so what do I know?)

In summary, the 76ers should not be nonchalant about trading Ben Simmons. They need to be proactive. Just fielding calls isn't good enough. Joel Embiid is an MVP caliber player that is in his prime right now for a few more years. Now is the time to go for it all for the 76ers. They should be calling teams that have on of those 10-15 elite guards in the league that compliment Embiid. A player that is in their prime now, fill that floor-general role, and is an all-star level talent. Philly should be trying to get a deal done sooner rather than later, as preseason is a very important part when it comes to winning it all; especially if you are trying to integrate a new All Star player(s) and implement a new system.

In short: Don't waste these next 2-4 years! Embiid finished 2nd in MVP voting last year despite playing only 51 games - probably would have won it if they had played 10 more regular season games. He's turning 28 in March. Now is the Sixers window to win a ring. Holding onto Ben Simmons and being reactive instead or proactive in trading Simmons will only hurt their chances at winning a ring.



PS - I'd love to hear your Ben Simmons trade scenarios if you've got any! Comment here or tag me on Twitter @SpencerKeele