Gronk

Yesterday the New England Patriots cut their team down to the required 53 man roster. On the list was Rob Gronkowski - their stud Tight End coming into his 4th year. This is news not because of we question his talent, but his injuries. The Patriots have been watching Gronkowski as he recovers from his surgeries. They could have put Gronk on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list.  This would have allowed the patriots to have another person on their 53 man roster, because Gronk wouldn't count. The con would be Gronkowski wouldn't be able to play the first six games of the season.

MEANING: The Patriots have reason to believe Gronk will be back sooner than 6 weeks.

Today, Gronkowski was at practice in "full pads" for the first time. (http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/9624968/rob-gronkowski-full-pads-new-england-patriots-practice)

As I am watching fantasy football drafts, I see Gronk being passed on. Other TE's are often picked ahead of him (including Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Vernon Davis, and others). I have Gronk as my number 2 TE after Jimmy Graham and you should too. I would take Gronk 2 or 3 rounds before any other tight end.

The Talent: Lets look back quickly at how good Gronk really is. He set the record for most touchdowns by a TE in their first two seasons, and tied Randy Moss' record of 28 offensive touchdowns by any position in their first two seasons. In 2011 he scored 18 touchdowns in 2011 (TE record) and 17 of them were by reception (also TE record) and had 1,327 yards (TE record). He was also the first TE ever to lead the NFL in reception touchdowns.

The Opportunity: The Patriots lost Welker, Hernandez and Lloyd this year. Brady will be looking to target Gronk all the time. Gronk is set up to have more targets per game than ever before. This could easily lead to his best stats per game in any season.

Missing Games: Missing the first couple games won't even hurt you as bad  as you think. Two reasons.

             1) You just need to get into the playoffs, which is usually six or eight teams that make the playoffs. If you can get Gronk at such a discounted price and have him in the playoffs, you will win your league.

             2) The TE position is weak everywhere this year. You won't be too far behind with a temporary waiver pick. The "best" TE's after gronk (Vernon Davis, Witten, Tony Gonzalez...) are not the much better than TE's on the waivers (Jordan Cameron, Coby Fleener, Zach Sudfeld...). I can always get a serviceable TE in the last couple rounds of a draft instead of using a high pick for a high risk, mediocre reward player like Vernon Davis. I will be just fine.

Bottom Line: In a 10-team league, I am looking to draft Gronkowski in the 6th round. Unless there is a player I feel 'slipped' down to round six, I take Gronk. He has 1st round potential. You may have a SLIGHT disadvantage in the first few games, but he will give you a HUGE advantage once he comes back.

Think about it. If you get him in round 6, you already have 5 good players. You can only start 6 players anyway (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, FLEX). If Gronk falls to round 7, he should be a 'no-brainer.'  If you take anyone else in the 7th round, you're either picking a bench player, or reaching way too soon and far on a different TE or a DEF.

Conclusion: Gronk is a medium risk, super high reward pick in round 6. We know he has the talent to be a round one pick. He should make a full recovery. There are serviceable TE's you can get at the end of your draft or off waivers that are not much worse that TE's you waist round 7 and 8 picks on. They will get you through the first fews weeks. Then Gronk will come back. You will dominate the 2nd half of your season. You will fly through the playoffs. Then you will win the championship.