The new Brady vs Manning debate

The classic Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning. Two legends nearing the end of their careers. But two players have been set up to take their place. These two players are so similar to the two legends they are taking over for.

Wilson vs Luck.
Brady vs Peyton.

Here's how the debate goes:

Player A - Peyton Manning = Andrew Luck
Player B - Tom Brady = Russell Wilson

Player A was the 1st overall draft pick. Player A had been hyped up since high school as the next big deal. Player A was picked to be the future of the franchise. Player A has great offensive weapons. Player A puts up stats like crazy and always makes the playoffs every year. Player A totals up yards and passing TD's like it's nobody's business.

Players B was drafted late in the draft, well after the first round, in the same draft as Player A. Player B was drafted to be a back-up QB. Player B also has great numbers, but Player A's overall yards and TD's overshadow Player B's overall stats. Player B also makes the playoffs every year. However, Player B always has more playoff success. He has been to and won more superbowls than Player A.

Player A has overall better stats, but can be negated by having had better offensive weapons than Player B. Also, perhaps playing in a Indianapolis dome with perfect controlled weather conditions has helped when throwing the ball vs Player B other playing consistently in cold, snow, rain, and/or just play out bad outdoor weather in (Boston/Seattle).

Player B has more superbowl rings and a much better playoff record (Player A actually has a losing record in the playoffs), but Player B has also had a much better defense. ("Defense wins championships.")

Player A has throw for much more yards. Player B has thrown much less interceptions.

Player A has had good coaches, but Player B always had an all-time great coach in (Belichick/Carroll).

So who's better? They guy who played with the better offense, worse defense, played in perfect dome weather, and accumulating much more overall stats? Or the guy with a better defense, worse offensive weapons, much less total stats but amazing ratios and great stats none-the-less, and much more playoff success?

What do you think?

update 1/18/2015 - With Russell Wilson and Tom Brady both getting to the superbowl, and with Luck and Manning both with another early exit, my doppelganger theory is growing stronger. Here are the 3-year side-by-side stats (in picture form) -

The Perfect NBA Mount Rushmore

Many a people have thrown out names for an NBA Mount Rushmore. But there is a perfect 4 people that, if there really was a Mount Rushmore for the NBA, would have to on there. They are: Bill Russell (Washington), Wilt Chamberlain (Jefferson), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (Lincoln), and Michael Jordan (Roosevelt).

Russell and Wilt were the pioneers of the NBA. The first greats. They still hold records today.

Bill Russell won like nobody else will be able to win again. 13 season, 12 finals, 11 rings. The finals MVP is named after this man. He is the first person that has to be an NBA Mount Rushmore

Wilt Chamberlain scored like nobody else will be able to score again and. The 100 point games. More 60+ point games than everyone else combine that's ever played in the NBA. Bill and Wilt, like George Washington and Jefferson, have to be on an NBA mount Rushmore.

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar holds two records that force me to put him on. He is the all time leader in points scored and the all time leader in MVPs. He's 3rd all time in rebounds and in blocks. He has 6 rings. He was so good for so long. You can't have a Mount Rushmore without the leading scorer / leading mvp's.

And in a Mount Rushmore, how can you leave out Jordan?

I've thought about all of this a lot and discussed it with a lot of different people. This is the perfect NBA Mount Rushmore and you cannot make a better one than this.

Stats:

Bill Russell: 11 championships (12 final appearances in 13 seasons), 5 MVPs, Finals MVP named after him, 2nd all time rebounding...

Wilt Chamberlain:100 point game, more 60+ points games than everyone else combine, 4 MVP's, 1st all time rebounding...

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: Most MVPs all time (6), 6 rings, Most points all time, 3rd most blocks all time, 3 most rebounds all time...

Michael Jordan: Most famous and most advertised player of all time. Face of the NBA (and everything else). 6 finals MVPs, 5 season MVPs. Probably more recognized American sports player in the world.

PS - Two people that were right there but not. 1) Oscar Robertson. He was Jordan before Jordan was Jordan. He was a big, fast, strong guard. He averaged 30+ points AND a triple double for several seasons. No one else has ever averaged a triple double. Oscar is one of the best players of all time. 2) Magic Johnson. Also one of the best players of all time, plus one of the most recognizable. Magic really changed the NBA for the better. Many say he and Larry Bird "saved" the NBA. Had I have a 5th or 6th spot, Magic and/or Oscar would be up there.

There are 7 contenders for NBA's greatest player of all time. Then there's everyone else.

In the history of the NBA, we have seen some great basketball and some great basketball players. When talking greatest of all time, there are so many factors that to into that. How good was their competition at the time? How many points did they score? What were some of their best games? Were they good under pressure? Were they well rounded? Did they play defence and offence? What's their averages look like? What's their career totals? Did they dominate games? Could they take over games? What if this? What if that?

After much research and much debating, I've found there to be what I call the "Tier 1" of basketball players. This is made up of 7 players who can be argued as the greatest player of all time. They are:

TIER 1:  (MVPs)

Bill Russell (5)

Oscar Robertson (1)

Wilt Chamberlain (4)

 Kareem Abdul-Jabbarr (6)

Ervin "Magic" Johnson (3)

Michael Jordan (5)

LeBron James (4)

These are players who dominated the game. (I personally like to leave LeBron out of the conversation because he's not done yet.) These are players that have stats that will blow your mind. These are players that have 4 MVPs or more (besides Oscar Robertson smushed in between Wilt and Bill). These are players with multiple championships. These are players that are well rounded. These players play good defence and offense. These players make their teammates better (except maybe Wilt...). These players can pass, rebound, shoot well, steal, block... they do it all. They all have great leadership and are all winners. I've heard great arguments for each of those players as the greatest of all time. If you want to argue one of seven, that is respectable and you might be right.

After tier 1, we have:

TIER 2:  (MVPs)

Bob Pettit (2)

Elgin Baylor (0)

Moses Malone (1)

Jerry West (0)

Julius Erving (1)

Larry Bird (3)

Isiah Thomas (0)

Charles Barkley (1)

Patrick Ewing (0)

Hakeem "the dream" Olajuwon (1)

John Stockton (0)

Scottie Pippin (0)

Shaquille O'neal (1)

Allen Iverson (1)

Kobe Bryant (1)

Tim Duncan (2)

(etc.)........

These guys are great players. However, they simply didn't dominate as did the tier 1 players.

Some of these guys are specialists who dominate some things (Iverson at scoring, Stockton at passing/stealing...). These guys have around 1 MVP. Some of these guys were victims of circumstance (Stockton played against Jordan, Iverson had bad teams, Pippin was always number 2...) Others were benefited by circumstance (Kobe drafted by the Lakers, played with Shaq and for Phil Jackson) (Hakeem won his only 2 championships the 2 years Jordan didn't play). Some of these guys lacked leadership or had problems with attitude. Some of these guys hid weaknesses by playing their role perfectly. Some of them never won a single ring or MVP.

Do you think Magic Johnson or LeBron James would have complained about having Shaq as a teammate and forced him out as Kobe did? No. Instead, they would have lead that team to win 8 championships with Shaq and Phil Jackson.

People who argue tier 2 players as "greatest of all time" are usually baseless and without facts. They maybe top 10 all time, or perhaps make your team of top 13, but you cannot convince me that any one of these players is the G.O.A.T. All the facts, the stats, the eye test, and everything else point to one of the seven players in tier one being the best of all time.

For more stats on the tier 1 guys and on a few tier 2 guys, check out my top 10 I did a while ago: http://keelesports.blogspot.com/2014/03/top-10-nba-players-all-time-keeping-in.html

4 Reasons the Cavs Should Not trade for Kevin Love

The Cavs are very desperate to get Kevin Love right now. They are willing to trade their top pick this year Andrew Wiggins plus other assets. They are also willing to take on bad contracts like JJ Barea and Kevin Martin. Here are 4 reasons why they shouldn't do it:

1. LeBron didn't make any demands when he came to Cleveland. He said he wanted to help the young talent get better, and he wanted to help the city of Cleveland. He said he wanted Cleveland to become a place where young stars want to come and play. Cleveland can still contend without trading for Love. By keeping Wiggins, this makes them contenders now and contenders in the future. If they trade Wiggins, they will be better now, but much worse in the future. LeBron said wants to help Cleveland be better for the long term. Keeping Wiggins will help you stay contenders for a long, long time.

2. They have a lot of cap space right now. Adding Kevin Love and resigning him would take most of their cap space. Then they'd be stuck with the team they have right now and wont have the cap space next year.


3. It'd be better to wait for next year to pull the trigger. Again, LeBron came to Cleveland with zero demands. He said himself he doesn't expect to win a championship right away. Next year there will be a lot of great free agents (starting with Kevin Love and LaMarcus Aldridge). If you wait one year, you can keep Wiggins and still get a Love or an Aldridge next year with all your money you still have from not trading Wiggins.

4. There's a great fit out there they could sign right now and still keep Wiggins: Greg Monroe. If they Cavs have to make a move now, they should go with Monroe, not Love. They could sign Greg Monroe with all that cap space AND keep Wiggins. Monroe is a great rebounder, he's a good defender, and he's 6'11" with a good wing span. Monroe is a perfect fit when it comes playing with LeBron James. I love Anderson Varejao, but Monroe plays bigger and stronger. With Monroe and Varejao playing big, LeBron and Wiggins on the wings and Kyrie at 1, there's a real good looking starting lineup! (Or go small with James at the 4 and stick Waiters and Wiggins on the wings.) Monroe would also (probably) be cheaper than Love. I think I'd rather have Monroe+Wiggins (and whoever else you keep) than just Love+two bad contracts.

Conclusion. The Cavs have some great options right now and most of them include keeping Wiggins. Wiggins is the number one pick in what's being called "the best draft since LeBron's 2003 draft." He is super athletic and has such high potential. There's no reason to trade him and take on bad contracts to get Kevin Love right now. The Cavs could go get Greg Monroe right now and keep Wiggins. Or wait till next year when there's a plethora of unrestricted big men (Love, Aldridge, Tyson Chandler, Roy Hibbert, DeAndre Jordan, Marc Gasol, Omer Asik........) and sign one of them, and still keep Wiggins!

My sports friend Mo said it well: "LeBron went to Cleveland supposedly to rebuild a franchise. Kevin Love makes them mortgage their future for now."

What do you think?

LeBron's two best (and worst) options

As a LeBron fan, I am glad he opted out of his contract. Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade make way too much money than they're worth, and therefore Miami can't afford any more help. So where should LeBron go?

LeBron has two amazing options, but would have to work a little 'forcing of hand' to make one of them happen.

1. Take Blake Griffin's spot in Los Angeles

Make a sign and trade deal for Blake Griffin. One thing LeBron James has never had to is really good, experienced coach. LeBron, unlike many other super stars, wants to listen to his coach and play team basketball. LeBron would do very well playing for a great coach like Doc Rivers.

LeBron already has a great friendship with Chris Paul. And having a good defensive center in DeAndre Jordan is something the Heat never had and desperately needed in the finals this year.

2. Join Carmelo Anthony in Houston

I've been saying this for a long time and I'll say it again. Carmelo Anthony is a thousand-times a better player when he plays with LeBron. When Carmelo plays with the King, he lets LeBron handle the ball and drive to the hoop. When they play together, Melo becomes an off-the-ball jump shooter. When this happens, Melo breaks Olympic records, all star records, and other records for 3 pointers made. If LeBron and Melo could team up, Carmelo would win the scoring title for sure and LeBron would probably average 10 assists a game.

For this to work, the Rockets have to get rid of James Harden. He's a ball hog. He's not as good a driver as LeBron and he's not as good a shooter as Melo. The only all star in the NBA that plays worse defense than Melo is Harden. Harden+Melo+LeBron would be horrible. Howard+Melo+LeBron would be magic.


          Really though, wherever LeBron ends up, I will be rooting for him. I love LeBron's approach basketball on and off the court. There are, however, two spots where I really hope he DOESN'T end up.

1. Los Angeles Lakers

Going to the Lakers would be horrible for LeBron. The fans that hate him the most are the Laker and Kobe fans. They are also the fans that are hardest to win over. If LeBron goes the LA and doesn't win 2 championships right away, he'll get booed out of the building. Also, LeBron would lose a lot of fans like me that love him and hate the Lakers. I will still hope he does well statistically, but I cannot cheer the Buss family, Kobe Bryant, or that franchise to win any more championships. I just can't. Bottom line, LeBron would lose a lot of fans, respect, and won't get that back from the Laker fans.

2. "Home Sweet Home" Cleveland Cavaliers

Lastly, I would advise LeBron not to go back to Cleveland. The Owner was so bitter when LeBron left that he wrote that awful letter to him. The front office sucks. The team sucks. Going back to Cleveland could be the biggest mistake of his career.



Be smart LeBron!

Johnny Football and Tebow Mania

I've been saying this for many months now, but this morning I heard Colin Cowherd say it, so I'm bring it back and saying it again... Whoever drafts Johnny "Football" Manziel should get Tim Tebow as their back-up QB.

Reason 1 - If you draft Manziel, you get a guy who is real good at running the ball. You will make a playbook designed to his strengths. If he gets hurt, you will want a QB to step in that can play the same style of football. This way, the offense doesn't have to learn a completely new playbook while Manziel is out.

Although Tim Tebow isn't the exact same QB as Manziel, he is surely as close to Manziel that you can find as a back-up. You can use the same playbook with Tebow as with Manziel. Just use a few more running plays and a few less passing plays.

Reason 2 - Manziel is a QB that can extend plays and pick up long runs. He's going to get hit a lot and he's going to get hit hard. Add to that he is a smaller guy (compared to other NFL players), Manziel could get hurt easily. You're going to want a QB that can keep you in the playoff picture (if that's where you are) and that you won't have to change your entire offensive scheme.

Reason 3 - How about actually playing Tebow for a fourth of the game or a third of the game. This way, not only is Tim Tebow your "fire insurance" if Maziel misses any time, but he can also be a  "fire prevention." You can keep Maziel's snap count down. Keep his hits down. This will keep Manziel from being hurt in the first place.

If you drafted Maziel, you probably will want him to be your franchise QB. That means he needs to play more than a few years. Keeping a small, running quarterback healthy for a long time is near impossible (ask RGII or Vick). Inserting Tebow for a chunk of minutes each game could help keep Manziel not only stay healthy, but fresher too. Many NFL players, especially rookies, tend to run out of gas in the end of the year.

Whether you think Tebow is a "good quarterback" or not, we do know that he went 9-3 with the Broncos starter including a playoff win in a system set up for him. Tebow, at the least, can be a productive back-up QB in a system that is conducive to his style of play.

NBA Playoff Kryptonite

With the playoffs almost here, there are some top teams that don't match up well with some lower seeds. Here are the match-ups that those top teams don't want to see. (But we want to see them, because we love the upsets!)

San Antonio Spurs - The team the Spurs don't want to see first round is the Golden State Warriors. The Spurs had their hands full last year in the playoffs with the Warriors. The first game was a 129-127 thriller that the Spurs barely won. The Warriors still pushed them to game 6. The Warriors are better this year than last. Iguodala is playing very well in his new role, Klay Thompson is shooting really well, and Curry is not only shooting lights out but is also passing better than ever. The Spurs do not want to draw the Warriors in the first round. The chances are slimming down that this could happen, but the Warriors still could slid down from 6th to 7th or 8th, and perhaps the Thunder catch up to the Spurs and take 1st place.




Los Angeles Clippers - The Clippers are just 2 games behind the Thunder for second place, with a game against them coming up. They could catch the Thunder pretty easily. However, if they do, their worst case scenario could line up in the first round. The team the Clippers want to avoid is the Memphis Grizzlies.

Last year, the Grizzlies beat them in the first round (lost the first two game then won four straight). The Clippers can run with anybody and love to play fast place, high-flying basketball. However, The Grizzlies play physical and hard really get in the Chippers players heads. They play slow and dirty. They have two big, strong, mean bigs in Gasol and Randolph. They are a bad matchup for the Clippers. This year, they've played 3 times, and the Grizzlies have won two of the three.

Miami Heat - I'm going to go two rounds deep with the Heat.

1st round - Of any team that could mathematically end up in the 7th or 8th spot, the New York Knicks are the team the Heat would rather avoid. I think the Heat could handle the Knicks fairly easily, but the Knicks have the best chance to beat them over any other team in that position (Bobcats, Wizards, Hawks, or Knicks). The Knicks live by the jump shot. With Carmelo and JR shooting 3's, and Tyson Chandler and Stoudemire down low, the Knicks can really spread out the Heat and get the shots they want. When their shots fall, they're a very difficult matchup for the Heat. Last year, the Knicks beat the Heat 3 of the 4 times they played. This year, they only got them once, but they've been playing by far their best basketball these last two months.

2nd round - Worst case scenario - The Bulls and Nets play each other in the first round and the Heat have to play the winner of them.

• Chicago Bulls - LeBron shuts down Derrick Rose. But when Rose doesn't play, the Bulls do better against the Heat. A few years ago, Derrick Rose was playing in a game against the Heat, and the Heat were winning the whole game. Derrick Rose left (fouled out?) in the 4th quarter, and the Bulls caught up, forced overtime, and won. The past two years in the regular season, the heat are 1-0 against the bulls with Rose, and 3-4 against them without. Remember last year they Bulls broke their 27 game winning streak? The Bulls play really, really physical and mean when they play the Heat. The Heat would rather play anyone else in the 2nd round. Except for maybe the Brooklyn Nets.
• Brooklyn Nets - The Heat have lost all 3 meetings this year against the Nets. This team has been really good in the second half of the season. The Heat's only answer to guarding Kevin Garnett is LeBron James, and that is physically exhausting task since LBJ is so much smaller than him and KG plays so hard in the post. Pierce and KG really put in an extra something when they play the Heat. And with Joe Johnson and Deron Williams, this is a very talented team that's getting it together at the right time. They're a scary team and a bad matchup for the Heat.