Scott and I love to play fantasy football and we have been doing it for quite a few years now. Scott and I usually do well in our leagues.
To get started early this year, on July 13th, We decided to join a standard, 10-team ESPN league with 8 random other guys. As we drafted, we kept a live chat going on between us discussing our strategies and what-not. I then compiled our live chat, and edited up a bit, and, well - here is who we picked and why:
PRE-DRAFT
Me – I had 3 overall ideas of strategy I wanted to follow going into the draft:- Get some good running backs early. I think there a lot of depth at all the other positions, but running back seems very shallow to me this year.
- Stay away from "trends" (reaching for a position just because other guys are taking those positions). I wanted to get the best available talent, and not worry about what positions other owners were picking.
- Draft guys with high potential, particularly after round 6 or 7. I don't want someone like Golden Tate or Chris Ivory that we know will be "ok". I want guys that will either really suck so I can drop them, or be really good and actually contribute to my team. “High risk high reward.” Standard 10-team leagues are too shallow to waste time with the "ok" players IMO.
First, is the rule changes. It used to be that Running Backs were so valued because all of your yards and touchdowns came from them. In short yardage situations, it was a no-brainer to punch it in and give your RB six fantasy points, you know, unless you’re Pete Carroll. But the league has moved towards passing first, and that’s why I look to fill out my WRs and QBs with value before my RB positions.
The second point is closely linked to the first. I always want to use my picks on someone who is vastly ahead of the next tier of players. You’ll see with my first round pick that I go for someone who I think is going to probably not slip to my second pick and who is also probably going to post substantially more points at his position than, say, the guy who is in fifth or tenth place at the position. I want the guy who is a tier above everyone else left at his position.
The third is that I want to pick guys that are under the Radar. Maybe it’s because I’m a fan of perennial losers like Oakland and Sacramento. Maybe it’s because I’ve seen my San Jose Sharks be loaded and still choke at the end. Whatever it is, I want to pick someone who people are forgetting about. I’ll take a lower profile, younger, healthier, hungrier player before I take someone who gives me pause based on injury history, contract situation or other surrounding factors but whose name pops off the screen.
THE DRAFT
Rounds 1&2:
Me- I think there are 10 great options at running back this year then a big fall off. They are Lacy, Bell, Peterson, Charles, Lynch, Foster, Murray, Anderson, McCoy, and Forte. Because I'm at the end of the draft, I can probably get two of my top 10 RBs. Which is great. I had no doubt in my mind I was going to take two RBs if 2 of my top 10 fell to me.
Scott - My first pick was Andrew Luck, rated on ESPN’s board as the 20th best prospect. Some may consider that a huge reach, but consider this. The difference in projected points the highest RB or WR and the 10th rated RB/WR is just 38 and 42 points respectively. The difference between Luck (whose projection I feel is low) and the QB 10 spots below him is 63 points. Everyone hopes they’re going to hit the homerun like DeMarco Murray did last year where there’s nearly a 100 point gap, but you’re banking on picking a player to have a career year over reliaing on standard deviation. I almost always want a top flight QB with one of my first two picks.
My second pick was probably my riskiest proposition given everything you’ve read about me to this point. I picked WR Julio Jones (causing an avalanche of WRs) over more proven names like D. Thomas, Jordy Nelson, Calvin Johnson and AJ green as well as high upside guys Alshon Jeffrey, Mike Evans and OBJ who were all gone by my next pick. I picked Jones because last year was an incredible down year for him, he seems to be back at full strength and his combination of potential and a better system and QB than most of those other guys really made me want to take the leap. Granted, I also thought I’d get one more of those guys that were drafted between, so I may end up being a complete idiot.
Rounds 3&4
Me - I wish a better receiver like Jeffrey or Cobb had fallen to me, or the tight end Jimmy Graham.
Of who was available, Justin Forsett was an easy choice for me. He could have a big year this year with the Ravens, and with RB position being so thin (in my eyes), picking up a RB as solid as Forsett here was great.
For my other pick, I went back and forth between WRs Brandin Cooks and Kelvin Benjamin. Both young, promising receivers from last years draft class. I think both will be great this year.
Scott - I again went for the big differential with my 3rd pick, Jimmy Graham. Jimmy is leagues better than the other TEs available and should only be better on a team with a running game, (you know, supposing they use it) and with a solid defense that will give him more time on the field. Plus, he’s not the injury risk a guy like Gronk is.
My fourth pick is a guy I felt was sneaky good in Melvin Gordon. I really did need a RB at some point, and Gordon has the potential to bust loose in a team with a good passing offense. Rookie RBs tend to do surprisingly well, due to their young legs, and their hunger to prove themselves. While Gordon isn’t going to be a top 5 RB he’s certainly someone I’m happy with at this spot.
Rounds 5&6
Me - I like Andre Johnson this year. A great receiver who has put up good numbers with sub-par QB's, now pairing up with Andrew Luck in Indiana. Johnson could have a great year.
I don't love my Brandon Marshall pick here, but everyone I would have taken over him was gone. Sammy Watkins, Latavius Murray, Andre Ellington, and Drew Brees are players I would have gladly taken over Marshall had they made it to the end of the round. But since they didn't. Marshall was who I elected to choose. He was thought of as a top 5 receiver last year. Coming off a disappointing season and switching over to the Jets, he has fallen from a top WR choice to a high-risk, high-reward type player.
Scott - If I had a time machine that would do nothing to alter the course of human history, I would go back in time and change this pick due to two players I really like going in between. I was banking that one or both of Amari Cooper and Latavius Murray would be available in round six and possibly one slipping to round seven. No such luck. I still like D-Jax as a high potential guy, particularly if RGIII can get his crap together, or if he goes down and Kirk Cousins gets to take another crack at the job.
My sixth round Pick was Todd gurley, who this late is a steal. Yes, Tre Mason is on the team so he’s not a true number 1, but Todd Gurley got snubbed as the first RB taken in the NFL draft this year, and I think he’s going to have a big year. Especially when you look at who fell between my sixth and seventh round picks, there was no one else I had as highly valued.
Rounds 7&8
Me – All the really good guys are gone, and I am now looking for big-rewards. Also, I am keeping in mind I have 3 RBs and 3 WRs and nothing else. Julius Thomas (TE) was really great the last few years, but that might have had something to do with Peyton Manning being his QB. Thomas has switched teams and now plays in Jacksonville. #HighRiskHighReward
Scott - If I had a time machine that would do nothing to alter the course of human history, I would go back in time and change this pick due to two players I really like going in between. I was banking that one or both of Amari Cooper and Latavius Murray would be available in round six and possibly one slipping to round seven. No such luck. I still like D-Jax as a high potential guy, particularly if RGIII can get his crap together, or if he goes down and Kirk Cousins gets to take another crack at the job.
My sixth round Pick was Todd gurley, who this late is a steal. Yes, Tre Mason is on the team so he’s not a true number 1, but Todd Gurley got snubbed as the first RB taken in the NFL draft this year, and I think he’s going to have a big year. Especially when you look at who fell between my sixth and seventh round picks, there was no one else I had as highly valued.
Rounds 7&8
Me – All the really good guys are gone, and I am now looking for big-rewards. Also, I am keeping in mind I have 3 RBs and 3 WRs and nothing else. Julius Thomas (TE) was really great the last few years, but that might have had something to do with Peyton Manning being his QB. Thomas has switched teams and now plays in Jacksonville. #HighRiskHighReward
Jeremy Maclin also went from being great in Philly with that high-flying offense to a boring Kansas City team and a boring QB Alex Smith. Who knows if Maclin can still be great after the switch. #HighRiskHighReward
Scott - There’s always that guy that takes a defense a little too soon. That was me this year. I wanted the safest Defense pick, and I went with the team that should have beaten the Colts in the Super Bowl #deflategate. These guys are one of the only groups I’ve seen in a while who may lose a super bowl and come back with enough punch and hunger to try and do it again. I actually think the Rams and Bills may have better defenses, but those picks are more boom or bust to me, and the Texans can’t possibly put up 6 TDs on defense again.
Round 8 was another where I anticipated a couple guys might fall (Both of Spencer’s picks actually) and they didn’t. With Marshall gone, Someone’s gotta fill those WR2 shoes behind Jeffrey, and White has really high potential this year. His erratic route running may actually be a plus for Cutler’s erratic passing.
Rounds 9&10
Me - There are so many guys left that I want and too little bench space, I decided to take the Texans defense here. With JJ Watt leading the way, and (maybe) #1 pick Jadeveon Clooney coming back, this team can score a lot of fantasy points (PS - they also have an easy schedule including playing the Jaguars and Titans twice each).
Scott - There’s always that guy that takes a defense a little too soon. That was me this year. I wanted the safest Defense pick, and I went with the team that should have beaten the Colts in the Super Bowl #deflategate. These guys are one of the only groups I’ve seen in a while who may lose a super bowl and come back with enough punch and hunger to try and do it again. I actually think the Rams and Bills may have better defenses, but those picks are more boom or bust to me, and the Texans can’t possibly put up 6 TDs on defense again.
Round 8 was another where I anticipated a couple guys might fall (Both of Spencer’s picks actually) and they didn’t. With Marshall gone, Someone’s gotta fill those WR2 shoes behind Jeffrey, and White has really high potential this year. His erratic route running may actually be a plus for Cutler’s erratic passing.
Rounds 9&10
Me - There are so many guys left that I want and too little bench space, I decided to take the Texans defense here. With JJ Watt leading the way, and (maybe) #1 pick Jadeveon Clooney coming back, this team can score a lot of fantasy points (PS - they also have an easy schedule including playing the Jaguars and Titans twice each).
Doug Martin is a high potential guy. He was amazing a few years ago, and hasn't been very good since. They say he looks in better shape this year. Maybe he remembers how to be great again. Martin, his competition Carles Sims, and Devonta Freeman are the only RBs left that I think have a chance to be really good, and I think Martin has the best chance out of the three.
Scott - Can someone say Injury Insurance? Remember the time the Cowboys knew they wouldn’t be resigning their star RB so they ran him into the ground? Remember the time their division rivals who thought signing Tim Tebow was a good idea also gave a massive contract to that guy because they lost out on Frank Gore? Ryan Matthews, an injury prone man himself, is someone who is either going to play a major role from injury, or a still significant one for fear of injury.
I knew I needed another WR at this point only having 3 and so I went with who I figured may be the best of Old Timers that were still on the board. Marques Colston is going to be getting a lot of attention from Drew Brees. Stills is gone. Graham is gone. That’s over 200 targets to be divided amongst Colston, Cooks and Nick Toon? Maybe Josh Hill? Maybe? Even if he gets just ¼ of those, he’s going to be looking at 150 targets which could mean almost 90 receptions. That’s a lot of potential TDs in the New Orleans dumpster fire.
Rounds 11&12
Me - Because my TE Julius Thomas is "high risk high reward," I took another high potential TE in Zach Ertz. He's got great skills and could break out this season as the #1 guy in that high-flying Eagles offense.There are only a few spot left on my team, and there are still a lot of guys I like left. So I figured I would take the best kicker since he's still here. Stephen Gostowski has consistently been the best kicker in fantasy football for years.
Scott - Need a reliable backup TE? Jason Witten. Just like dinner left overs, he’s always better than you think he’s going to be when you’ve got nothing else. Pick #12 has Spencer Keele written all over it, so I nabbed him. Victor Cruz #highriskhighreward That’s a man looking to get more money.
Rounds 13&14
Me – All the really good quarterbacks are gone now. There is no use of me taking a quarterback now. Any QB I want now will still be there for my last pick. So I took Josh Hill (Jimmy Graham's replacement on the Saints). He's got all the raw talent to perhaps become a great TE this year, and a good QB in Brees looking to throw the ball to him. Between Hill, Julius Thomas, and Zach Ertz, I think I have a really good chance of having one or more of them being an elite tight end for me this year. FYI - If Hill had been gone, I would have taken Owen Daniels.
The Rams defense should be a good 2nd defense to use when the Texans have a bad match up like the Colts or the Patriots or are on their bye week.
(PS – I would have taken the Dolphins defense instead had they been here.)
(PPS - I knew everyone was going to start picking defenses these last three rounds, so I stayed ahead of the trend and got first dibs.)
Scott - I can honestly tell you before today I’d never even heard of Devante Adams, but he’s a Packer. Packers are like Spurs. You just want them on your team. No particular reason, but if he has a monster year, you heard it here first. Possibly because you haven’t heard it anywhere else.
I think the Eagles are going to be good. All the crap I said about Murray going down? If that doesn’t happen, the Eagles could really be in business (or, you know, not given Sam Bradford’s knees). Either way, to have a prayer they’re going to need to score a lot of points, and that kicker was pretty solid last year. It also pains me to not have Sebastian Janokowski as an automatic Kicker pick for me any more.
Final Rounds (15&16)
Scott - In retrospect I should have just grabbed a second defense. Prove me wrong Eddie Royal. Here’s hoping that the bears stay crazy and trade Alshon Jeffries. At least I’ve got someone to drop week 1 when someone much better comes out of the rubble.
And given everything you’ve read about me is it a shock that Derek Carr is my last pick? Potential to be better an many second QBs (Huge upgrades at all his skill positions this year, plus a top flight center to keep him safe), he’s a younger guy so I think I’m safe not losing sleep over taking Kaep, a rookie, a Raiders Washout with worse knees than Bradford, and only maybe Flacco or Dalton are better. I also think that Spencer is going to see quickly how much of a QBs league this is. Oh, and I’m a giant Raiders homer so not having one on my team would be a travesty. I think that is the same reason Spencer picked Gostkowski. Brady was too rich for his blood as a round 8 pick, he never had a shot at Gronk without massively over spending, so he goes for Gostkowski. Never forget, sports is about fandom and not about winning. It’s just a nice coincidence when those things combine.
Me – You CAN win fantasy football leagues by "streaming quarterbacks" (pick up and start one of the best QBs on waivers that has a good match-up that week). Or maybe I'll find a QB that breaks out and has a great year. There are actually a lot of good choices at QB left.
Sam Bradford will get the first crack at being my starting QB. The Eagles traded their starting QB (Foles) PLUS better draft picks to get Bradford. So there must be something to like about him.... right? Plus the Eagles play so fast. More plays = more quarterback points.
Scott - In retrospect I should have just grabbed a second defense. Prove me wrong Eddie Royal. Here’s hoping that the bears stay crazy and trade Alshon Jeffries. At least I’ve got someone to drop week 1 when someone much better comes out of the rubble.
And given everything you’ve read about me is it a shock that Derek Carr is my last pick? Potential to be better an many second QBs (Huge upgrades at all his skill positions this year, plus a top flight center to keep him safe), he’s a younger guy so I think I’m safe not losing sleep over taking Kaep, a rookie, a Raiders Washout with worse knees than Bradford, and only maybe Flacco or Dalton are better. I also think that Spencer is going to see quickly how much of a QBs league this is. Oh, and I’m a giant Raiders homer so not having one on my team would be a travesty. I think that is the same reason Spencer picked Gostkowski. Brady was too rich for his blood as a round 8 pick, he never had a shot at Gronk without massively over spending, so he goes for Gostkowski. Never forget, sports is about fandom and not about winning. It’s just a nice coincidence when those things combine.
Me – You CAN win fantasy football leagues by "streaming quarterbacks" (pick up and start one of the best QBs on waivers that has a good match-up that week). Or maybe I'll find a QB that breaks out and has a great year. There are actually a lot of good choices at QB left.
Sam Bradford will get the first crack at being my starting QB. The Eagles traded their starting QB (Foles) PLUS better draft picks to get Bradford. So there must be something to like about him.... right? Plus the Eagles play so fast. More plays = more quarterback points.
If Bradford isn't good, Look at all the potential QBs I could pick up on waivers: Kaepernick, Mariota, Winston, Bridgewater, Flacco, Palmer, Cutler, Dalton, Foles, Bortles, and Johnny Manziel.
Last pick matters very little. I like Robert Griffin and I hope he has a good year. Honestly, I'll probably drop him quickly. Maybe before the season even starts. There will be some good players to pick up on waivers as we get closer to opening day.
Me – Looking at my team, I like it. I have 3 really solid running backs and 2 maybe 3 solid receivers. My fourth RB and my fourth WR have high potential. I have 3 high-risk TEs that could all be really good. Texans and Rams are great defenses and I have the best kicker. I just need to figure out the quarterback situation as the season goes on. This could be a championship team.
Last pick matters very little. I like Robert Griffin and I hope he has a good year. Honestly, I'll probably drop him quickly. Maybe before the season even starts. There will be some good players to pick up on waivers as we get closer to opening day.
Final Teams
Scott - Drafting is always funny because you think you've done so well getting steals in alter rounds always to go, "Why don't I have amazing players at every position? I got steals! Steals I tell you!"
I am content with what I have because barring a serious injury to Andrew Luck there's no one on my team who I'm so tied to that I think I'm unable to replace them. A couple last thoughts are these: Just because you value someone doesn't mean everyone does. If you're undecided on a player, consider drafting whoever may have more value in a trade, or who could light it up the first few weeks. Victor Cruz and Kevin White are those guys for me. I'd also add that you need to have a strategy for picking early, for picking mid and picking late. Spencer did a great job finding serviceable players back to back without reaching very often (I'm looking at you Sam Bradford). I had to consider who may still be available at my next pick. With my 3 and 6th picks I got burned. Rounds 2 4 and 10 were just what I was hoping would happen.
I am content with what I have because barring a serious injury to Andrew Luck there's no one on my team who I'm so tied to that I think I'm unable to replace them. A couple last thoughts are these: Just because you value someone doesn't mean everyone does. If you're undecided on a player, consider drafting whoever may have more value in a trade, or who could light it up the first few weeks. Victor Cruz and Kevin White are those guys for me. I'd also add that you need to have a strategy for picking early, for picking mid and picking late. Spencer did a great job finding serviceable players back to back without reaching very often (I'm looking at you Sam Bradford). I had to consider who may still be available at my next pick. With my 3 and 6th picks I got burned. Rounds 2 4 and 10 were just what I was hoping would happen.
