Your Guide to Beating the Denver Broncos

The Broncos are not only the best team in the NFL right now, but are ridiculously better than everyone else. The Broncos right now are as good as any other team in the history of the NFL during the first four weeks. If any team is going to beat them, here are four things that team must do:

1. Dare the Broncos to RUN the football - Don't waste your time trying to stop the run. Let them run free. Focus all energy on stopping the pass. Peyton doesn't want to run the ball. He doesn't trust any of this 3 running backs (Ball, Moreno, and Hillman) as he shouldn't (they kind of suck). Peyton loves throwing the ball. Peyton wants to throw the ball every time. He doesn't want to go a whole game just handing the ball off.

And If  their running backs are picking up two or three yards every time they carry the ball? Who cares? You shouldn't. Two yard gains are a million times better than Peyton Manning having open looks to his four dangerous receivers (D. Thomas, J. Thomas, Decker, and Welker). As long as you're effectively guarding the pass, let them pick up small gains on the ground all day.

Throw away your run-stopping defenses. Have as much man power as possible focused on defending the pass. When Payton hands the ball off and the running back picks up three yards, that is a win for you!

The only time I even think about run defences is on 3rd and short. And I still am expecting a fake hand off and have my defence ready for a big play.

2. Have a confusing defence - Peyton is maybe the smartest quarterback of all time. If he knows what defence you are playing, he's going to absolutely murder you. Your defence must be one-hundred percent in the game. They must show and sell one thing, then do the other. Show a zone defence, and then play man. Show blitz, then don't, then do. Do everything and nothing.

If I am in the AFC, I start making a defencive playbook today that I will only use when I play the Broncos. Even if I don't play then until week 17.

3. Have an effective pass rush - This one you can't just plan. If your teams can't pressure a quarterback without blitzing all the time, then you're going to lose to the broncos. Peyton is a double-edged sword. If you blitz him too much, he will burn you. If you give him all day in the pocket, he will burn you. You must be able to pressure him without having to blitz often. If you have a good pass rush, and only give him so much time, you can keep Peyton in check.

4 - You still need to score - The Broncos also have a pretty good defence. Plus, even if you do all the right things on defence, Peyton will not be held to zero points. If you hold the Broncos under twenty points, then you did a great job. That means you have to be able to score at least twenty points if you want to win.

Conclusion - The broncos will not lose to any bad team this year. They are too good and too disciplined. The only teams that have a chance to beat them must have an effective pass rush, a good offence, and confusing defence, and protect well against the pass (forget the run).

The only four teams on the Broncos schedule that are good enough to even have a chance are the Colts, Patriots, Chiefs, and Texans. And probably not even the Texans. If I were one of them, I start today to make an elusive defencive strategy to use against the Broncos.

And even all that might not be enough. The Broncos have a real chance to go undefeated this year. They are historically good right now and, barring an injury to Peyton Manning, will continue to dominate all year.

Why Rafael Nadal is better than Roger Federer

Did you see Nadal destroy everyone in his win at the US Open again? He went almost the entire tornament without dropping a game where he served. He beat number one Djokovic comfortably in 4 sets for the championship.

Rafael Nadal is the best player in our generation. Perhaps the best of all time. Nadal is better than Roger Federer ever was. A lot better. Federer was good, but not the best ever. Not by a long shot.

Federer does have the record of grand slam titles with 17. But who did he beat? No one. Federer's wins were in a time period when there were no great tennis players. Nadal was still a teenager and Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi were almost retired. Federer is a good player that got to play against a bunch of nobodies.


When Federer was in his prime and young Nadal stepped onto the scene, Federer stopped winning almost immediatly. Nadal has a career 21-10 record against Fed, and is 8-2 in grand slam matches. One of those two wins over Nadal was the Wimbledon final where Nadal was playing with a messed up knee, and Fed still only won just by the thinnest of margins (7-6 4-6 7-6 2-6 6-2). This was in Federer's prime, and Nadal was still up and coming.

Since then, Nadal has dominated Federer. Djokovic has dominated Federer. Federer's "prime" was when he was twenty four because when he turned twenty seven, Nadal was already kicking his butt. Nadal is now twenty seven and he is still dominating.

So Federer has 17 grand slam title compared to Nadal's 13. But like I said earlier, Federer didn't have to beat anyone good. Nadal has to fight for every single championship. He has always had to go up against Federer and Djokovic - two of the greats. Even Andy Murry is probably better than anyone Federer had to play when he was winning his grand slams. On top of that, Nadal has missed quiet a few grand slam opportunities because of injury.

Nadal is the best player I've been alive to watch. Maybe the best ever. Federer is great, but not legendary.


EDIT 6/9/2014 - With his 14th grand slam title, Nadal is now the only player to win at least one Grand Slam for 10 years straight. He also has 4 Davis Cups (Federer has 0) and Nadal has an Olympic gold in singles and Federer does not.

Nadal is also now 9-2 in Grand Slams against Federer. The only 2 losses were on Federer's best court (Wimbledon) in the Final. Also, Nadal was only 19 and 20 years old then. Since Nadal was 20 years old, he's never lost to Federer in a grand slam tournament.

EDIT 10/25/2014 - In a nut shell, Fed dominated until actual competition arrived. He feasted on sub-par players. He won 12 of his 17 grand slams in his early 20's before players like Nadal and Djokovic were even 20 years old yet. When Federer hit 26 (his "prime") he should have been more dominate that ever. Instead, he started losing because actual competition like Nadal and Djokovic stepped into the scene. He was 26 in 2008, and since the beginning of 2008, he has only won five grand slams. Nadal has more than double that since 2008 with ELEVEN. Even Djokovic has more with seven. And this was all right under Federer's prime years (starting at age 26).

Bottom line: Rodger Federer was the best tennis player compared to his competition for only three years. Ranging from 2004-2007. During those three years with poor competition, Federer took advantage and won 12 grand slams! When the competition got better (Nadal turned 20 years old, Djokovic turned 20 years old, etc.), Federer, who was in the middle of his prime at age 26, stopped winning.

From 2008, Nadal, injuries and all, won 11 slams to Federer's five. That's more than double.

And since 2008, Nadal is never lost to Federer in a grand slam tournament (9-0)

Tom Brady's Greatest Weakness

Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback in this generation. Maybe the best all time. 3 super bowl rings and

great stats. Today he became the second quarterback ever to throw a touchdown in fifty consecutive games. I have him tied at 1 and 1A with John Elway for top quarterback ever. Brady can fit a football through any window. He sends the football flying like a missile through two or three defenders and hits his target perfectly. Brady is a great leader, a great passer, and a great play caller. However there is one big, nasty flaw in his game.

I don't know if it is a result of bad play calling, or a loss of confidence, or something else. Every time the Patriots lose a playoff game, it is because of this same flaw in Brady. When he leaves at half time with a small lead, he come back onto the field a different person. He looks scared. He has no confidence. He looks like he wants to just run out the clock and cling onto his three point lead.

Tom Brady will kill you if you give him a big lead early. If you need a comeback win, there is no one I'd rather have than him. But if you go into halftime with small lead, please give me someone else.

Today was a fine example. He went into the half winning 13-3 with all the momentum in the world. He had thrown for 136 yards and a touchdown. In the second half, the Patriots did not even score once. They were bailed out by their defence. Brady threw for 49 yards and 0 touchdowns. He let the Jets back into the game and almost lost.

Lets look back at the years at some of the most important losses in Brady's career.

2013 The Patriots were at home against the Ravens. One game away from the Super Bowl. The first half ended 13-7 in favor of the Patriots. But, Tom Brady stopped passing with confidence. The failed to score the entire second half. He let the Ravens come back, take the lead, and knock him out of the playoffs. Final score 28-13.

2012 Super Bowl. Tom Brady had a one point lead going into the half, and only scored once in the second half. He did not score in the fourth quarter. He stopped attacking. He played way too conservative. The Giants were able to come back, score 6 points in the fourth quarter, and win the game 21-17.

2009 Undefeated season. They killed everyone they played. There were accused of running up the score in some games. Brady and Randy Moss were breaking all kinds of records. They got to the Super Bowl. They went into the half with a 7-3 lead. Brady tried to run out the time. He didn't Attack. He became passive. He looked scared to throw the ball. He reacted instead of acted. As a result, the Giants came back and won the game 17-14.

Conclusion - If Tom Brady would keep attacking for a whole game instead of trying to run out the clock out with a small lead, he would probably have at least three more super bowl rings to show for it. This is his greatest weakness.

The Right, The Wrong, and the Sort Of

Week one is almost over. What a Sunday that was. So many games ending within just one possession. It made for some very exciting games.

Those of you that heard me out on who to avoid and who get grab should be thanking me... for the most part. Here are my predictions at the beginning of the season and how they look after week 1.

The Right

Stevan Ridley - I told everyone to stay away from Stevan Ridley in my "Have Not's" blog. And what happened? Exactly what I said was going to happen! Ridley has a fumble and less caries than another running back on his own team (Vereen). He only 2 more than the third string running back (Blount). I predict Vereen and Blount will continue to take playing time away from Ridley. He should not be trusted as a number 1 fantasy running back.

Dez Bryant - Stay away from him, I said. Round 2 is way too early to draft him, I said. Miles Austin will cut into his playing time, I said. I hope you listened to me. Bryant had 4 receptions for 22 yards and no touchdowns. That is good for 4th on his team in receptions and 5th in receiving yards. Miles Austin, however, had 10 receptions for 72 yards. Anyone who drafted Dez Bryant before AJ Green or Matt Forte are regretting it now, and will continue to do so throughout the season.

Danny Amendola - I've been grabbing Amendola usually 5th or 6th round. Way too many people let Amendola slide far down the draft. He is so talented and is Brady's number one receiver. That means he is at worse an average WR1 or a great WR2 in any fantasy league. Today he had 10 receptions for 104 yards. Brady will continue to throw the ball to him often.


The Wrong

Zach Sudfelt - I encouraged drafting Zach Sudfeld. I believe this isn't too bad because I suggested drafting him no earlier than round 11, so he's not a huge loss. However,  I was wrong about him being a starting TE in 10 team leagues. He failed to score any fantasy points today. I personally am keeping him for a few more weeks to see if he will turn around. He will be on the bench however. I will be starting someone else next week.


The Sort Of

The Denver Receivers - I stayed away from Denver's receivers because I knew they would either all be mediocre, or someone would get left out. And low and behold, Eric Decker was left out. Even on a night Peyton Manning threw for 465 yards and 7 touchdown, Decker only have 2 receptions for 32 yards. So those of you who drafted Decker... you should have listened to me. I expect Peyton to continue to leave him out of the loop, and look first for other targets.

Demaryius Thomas and Welker, on the other hand, were fantastic. I expect them to continue to do well. Thomas is a great WR1 and Welker will be a great WR2 or even a WR1. Those of you who drafted Thomas or Welker... Good thing you didn't listen to me!

4 Things I Learned from Opening Day

The first game of the season was really fun to watch... for the first half of the game. Denver ran Baltimore out the door in the second half. That passing game for the Broncos looked amazing. Here are four things I learned from the opening game.

1. Hello Wes Welker, Goodbye Eric Decker - Peyton Manning and Wes Welker quickly found chemistry. Welker caught 9 of his 11 targets. (The second most catches by a Bronco receiver was 5. Welker almost caught double more than any other Bronco!) Welker has got Manning's respect and Manning will look for him often the rest of the season.

Eric Decker has lost his spot as an every down receiver. He only caught two of his seven targets, and some of this drops were very costly. He dropped an easy touchdown pass. Then, to put the game away, the Broncos needed a first down. It was second down, and Peyton put the ball right in Deckers hands for a first down, and he dropped it again. Luckily for the Broncos, different receivers stepped up the next play both times and saved the drives. Manning obviously cannot trust Decker. And now the Welker is here, he doesn't have too. I expect Decker to have a very low season in terms of stats. Oh yeah, and here's another reason Decker isn't going to have a lot of targets. Meet Julius Thomas.

2. Julius Thomas - Hello Julius Thomas! 5 catches (tied for second most on the team) and two touchdowns. He is talented and very physical gifted. Peyton has new toy, and he has big plans for him. I expect DeMaryius Thomas and Wes Welker to have better overall season, but Julius Thomas will have a good season as well.

3. Peyton Manning - Peyton looked better than he has since 2007, maybe even better than ever. What a historic night for Peyton Manning. If anyone still thinks Peyton is slowing down because of age or injury, you're wrong. Simple as that. He is playing at 100%.

Peyton's best talent was never his physical talent. You do not see Peyton fitting the ball into tiny windows like Tom Brady or scrambling like Brett Favre. Peyton's biggest strength is his mind. He knows exactly where the ball should go. He coaches his receivers to where they should be. Peyton could play quarterback until he is sixty years old. Tom Brady can fit a football threw the tiniest window, but Peyton Manning never needs to. He creates giant windows for himself. His superpower was, is, and always will be his brain. And if anything he's getting better, not worse, over time. He's getting smarter and more experienced.

4. Fast-paced offence - This game was the first of many games this season that will feature such a fast paced offence. Offences statistics will be through the roof this year. Since football began, teams have focused on  having a high 'time of possession.' Over the last few years, teams have been getting more and more away from this. In 2011, three QB's threw over 5,000 yards (Brady, Brees, and Matthew Stafford). Prior to that, only two QB's had ever thrown for that many. In 2012, more QB's threw for over 4000 yards than ever before (11. Previous record was 10 set in 2009 and 2011). Offensive stats over the last 5 years have been skyrocketing.

Chip Kelly said it before the season even started. "Time of possession is overrated." Peyton Manning was the first QB to throw 7 touchdowns in a single game since 1969. I wouldn't be surprised to see him or another QB do that again this season. This season is going to be high scoring all year.

On a fantasy football note: I want players that play for or against fast offences. I am starting DeSean Jackson over Mike Wallace this week. If Chip Kelly's offence as fast as the Broncos were, then I expect Jackson to have numbers similar to DeMaryius Thomas last night. Faster offence means more opportunity to score for both sides.

And if you thought yesterday was fun, that was just one game!

Ravens/Broncos box score - http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=330905007

3 QB's over 5000 yards 2011 - http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/01/drew-brees-tom-brady-matthew-stafford-all-top-5000-yards/

11 QB's over 4000 yards 2012 - http://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/more-quarterbacks-threw-for-4000-yards-in-2012-than-any-other-season/

Time of possession overrated - http://sportsusamedia.com/nfl-football-news/eagles-coach-chip-kelly-time-of-possession-overrated/

Patriot Receivers on Clearance

Tom Brady is one of the best quarterbacks to ever play in the NFL. I think he's the best or second best next to Elway. Yet all his receivers going so late in the fantasy football drafts.

Tom Brady is going to get a lot of yards thrown and a lot of touchdowns. He always has. He always will. This year, people are saying he has no one to throw to. When has it been any different? His number one receiver for the last six years was Wes Welker, a guy who got cut from the Dolphins because he wasn't good enough. Tom Brady turned him into a possible hall of famer.

This year, no one is drafting his receivers again. In a 10 team action draft, ESPN ranks the three top bronco receivers at a combine $60! (Thomas $28, Welker $19, and Decker $13.) As opposed to the Patriots top four receivers who total just $29. ($14 Amendola, $12 Gronkowski, $2 Thompkins, $1 Sudfeld.) I believe Peyton Manning and Tom Brady will finish with similar stats. At least one receiver on the patriots will get a lot more fantasy points than they are projected.

Let's look at the options.

Danny Amendola is the most talented wide receiver Tom Brady has ever played with (next to Randy Moss of course). Unlike Welker in Miami, he was actually making a name for himself as a 'pre-patriot' with the Rams. However, he is still going very late in the fantasy drafts. People take Tom Brady's #1 wide receiver after players like Wes Welker, Reggie Wayne, Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, and Hakeem Nicks.... Yikes!

Amendola has a much higher floor and a MUCH higher ceiling than those duds. Amendola could easily be a top 10 receiver this year. He's on track right now to be Tom Brady's #1 wide receiver. If he stays that way all year, he will easily put up Wes Welker type numbers or better. And getting him in the same round as Mike Wallace and Dwayne Bowe is a steal. I take Amendola in round 5. Even when I don't take him in five, he'll sometimes slip to me in round six. People avoid him, and you should not.

I've already done a whole post on Gronk (http://keelesports.blogspot.com/2013/09/gronk.html), so I'll keep this real short. I like Rob Gronkowski a lot. I like him in round six or seven, but often people will take him earlier than that. I don't want to use a top 3 pick on such a risk, even a risk with a reward like Gronk. If he's there round 6, I'll usually grab him. If he slips to 7, I take him laughing.

Kenbrell Thompkins has impressed in training camp. If you do well on the patriots, Tom Brady knows it and keeps feeding you. Thompkins is set up to be the #2 receiver this year, taking Brandon Lloyds spot. Last year, Lloyd was going in round 4 or 5 in 10 team drafts. This year, Thompkins is going in round 13 or 14. I usually take him round 12 or even 11 just to be sure I get him.

Around round 12, people are starting to waste picks on players like Michael Floyd, Fred Jackson, Knowshon Moreno, Jermichael Finley, Matt Schaub, Isaiah Pead, and Justin Blackmon. Probably all of these players will never play on your starting roster and you'll end up dropping them. Thompkins has way more potential than anyone you'll find this late in drafts. (And think about this: If Amendola gets hurts again and Gronk comes back later instead of sooner, Thompkins could be Brady's #1 receiver. That's a strong #2 WR at worst!)

Lastly is Zach Sudfeld.  Even if he loses all this touches when Gronkowski gets back, he is still worth the round 14 pick. You can get him in the last few rounds. Sudfeld often goes undrafted. If you already drafted, check your waivers for Sudfeld. Here is a guy that is taking Aaron Hernandez spot, and temporarily filling in for Gronkowski. In round 14 or 15, he's a high reward no risk guy. Rounds 14 and 15 are usually a crap shoot anyway, and getting  a 6'8 TE on the Patriots that's going to start week one? Count me in! As long as he doesn't have another fumble like pre-season, Brady will throw to him a lot.

Now I'm not encouraging you to go out and pick Tompkins and Sudfeld in rounds 5 and 6. They do have uncertainty and risk with them. But what a deal they are at the price they have. Go get all four Patriots receivers if others shy away from them and win your fantasy football league.

My 'Have Nots'

As I do mock drafts and real drafts for fantasy football, I notice certain players I never get. I call them my Have Nots.
*I'll be using language from a normal espn ten team league.*


Alfred Morris - Morris usually goes in the first round, around the 9th pick. Here is why I have avoided him so far. His coach, Mike Shanahan, has always used multiple running backs. Running backs on a Shanahan team never have elite fantasy points. Starting running backs are always changing with Shanahan. Morris did very well last year, but I am scared Shanahan could find some other talent on the bench, and steal touches from Morris.

Also, Morris was a rookie last year. He could very well fall into that "sophomore slump." There are just too many risks to make Morris a round 1 pick. I would take him with maybe the 15th pick overall, mid second round. But in the 1st round, I want someone with less risks.

Players I am taking ahead of Morris - (in order) The top 8 projects RB's, Trent Richardson, LeSean McCoy (very underrated this year), Aaron Rodgers, and Calvin Johnson.

Stevan Ridley - Ridley usually goes in the early to mid second round. I don't hate Ridley, but a lot of people are too high on him. Ridley's coach Bill Belichick has always seen running backs as a dime a dozen. Who was the last Patriots running back to have 2 good fantasy years in a row?

Also, the Patriots have a QB named Tom Brady. He throws it a lot.

Also, the Patriots have an on-coming young stud named Shane Vereen that could steal touches from Ridley. They also got a monster LaMarcus Blount this off season that could steal touches from Ridley, particularly goal line touches thus taking away touchdowns.

Players I am taking ahead of Ridley - Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning.

Dez Bryant - He is going as the 2nd or 3rd WR, usually in round 2. I think he's good, but not that good. One problem I have with him is he always goes too high as a WR. I'm still looking for a 2nd RB or a QB. My other problem with Dez is I think Miles Austin is back and will take some targets away from Bryant. (I actually have Miles Austin on a lot of teams!)

Players I am taking ahead of Bryant - Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Chris Johnson, and Frank Gore.

All 3 Bronco Receivers - There are 3 receivers from Denver going ahead of many number 1 receivers. Peyton Manning only has one football. His two receivers did good last year, but now you add Welker to the mix, there's only one way to go, and that's less targets per receiver.

Demaryius Thomas is good but he's going as the 5th or 6th WR in the late 2nd round.

Players I am taking ahead of Thomas - Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Tom Brady,and Jimmy Graham.

Wes Welker. Who knows how he will fit in. He's going to take some targets away from Thomas and Decker, but how much? Also, Welker was nothing before Tom Brady. Now that he doesn't have Brady anymore, maybe we'll see his true colors again and he won't be very good.

Players I am taking ahead of Welker - Vincent Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, McFadden, Cruz, Amendola, Lacy, Murray, Colston, Kaepernick, RGIII, and Reggie Bush.

Eric Decker - He's projected to be the number 3 receiver for Denver, yet he's going ahead number 1 receivers. Peyton Manning is good, but he only has one football. He only has so much time in one game.

Players I am taking ahead of Decker - Reggie Bush, Rob Gronkowski, Matt Ryan, Lamar Miller, Reggie Wayne, Mike Wallace, Hakeem Nicks, Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Jordy Nelson, Russell Wilson, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Matt Stafford. 

All tight ends - All tight ends that aren't named Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski are too overrated. They all go too early. Graham and Gronk often go too early as well. Jason Witten and Vernon Davis are the 3rd and 4th TE being drafted. I believe they're risk/reward isn't much better than a Zach Sudfeld or a Jordan Cameron that you can get in the last 4 rounds. I like to keep my eye on Antonio Gates. I personally like him. I think he has pretty high potential. I try to get him in the 10th round if he is still there. Maybe late 9th.

Players I am taking ahead of Antonio Gates and other TE's

Greg Jennings, Andrew Luck, Michael Vick, Anquan Boldin, Miles Austin, T.Y. Hilton, Seattle Defence, San Francisco Defence,Steve Johnson

Players I am taking ahead of other TE's besides Gates

Bears Defence, Ben Tate, Kenbrell Thompkins, Kenny Britt, Emmanuel Sanders, Ben Roethlisberger, and the Steelers Defence.

*Keep in mind positions you've already drafted. EI: If you have 3 Rb's and 1 WR, you should probably draft Victor Cruz over Reggie bush, and vise-versa if you have 2 Rb's and 2 or 3 WR's.*

Gronk

Yesterday the New England Patriots cut their team down to the required 53 man roster. On the list was Rob Gronkowski - their stud Tight End coming into his 4th year. This is news not because of we question his talent, but his injuries. The Patriots have been watching Gronkowski as he recovers from his surgeries. They could have put Gronk on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list.  This would have allowed the patriots to have another person on their 53 man roster, because Gronk wouldn't count. The con would be Gronkowski wouldn't be able to play the first six games of the season.

MEANING: The Patriots have reason to believe Gronk will be back sooner than 6 weeks.

Today, Gronkowski was at practice in "full pads" for the first time. (http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/9624968/rob-gronkowski-full-pads-new-england-patriots-practice)

As I am watching fantasy football drafts, I see Gronk being passed on. Other TE's are often picked ahead of him (including Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Vernon Davis, and others). I have Gronk as my number 2 TE after Jimmy Graham and you should too. I would take Gronk 2 or 3 rounds before any other tight end.

The Talent: Lets look back quickly at how good Gronk really is. He set the record for most touchdowns by a TE in their first two seasons, and tied Randy Moss' record of 28 offensive touchdowns by any position in their first two seasons. In 2011 he scored 18 touchdowns in 2011 (TE record) and 17 of them were by reception (also TE record) and had 1,327 yards (TE record). He was also the first TE ever to lead the NFL in reception touchdowns.

The Opportunity: The Patriots lost Welker, Hernandez and Lloyd this year. Brady will be looking to target Gronk all the time. Gronk is set up to have more targets per game than ever before. This could easily lead to his best stats per game in any season.

Missing Games: Missing the first couple games won't even hurt you as bad  as you think. Two reasons.

             1) You just need to get into the playoffs, which is usually six or eight teams that make the playoffs. If you can get Gronk at such a discounted price and have him in the playoffs, you will win your league.

             2) The TE position is weak everywhere this year. You won't be too far behind with a temporary waiver pick. The "best" TE's after gronk (Vernon Davis, Witten, Tony Gonzalez...) are not the much better than TE's on the waivers (Jordan Cameron, Coby Fleener, Zach Sudfeld...). I can always get a serviceable TE in the last couple rounds of a draft instead of using a high pick for a high risk, mediocre reward player like Vernon Davis. I will be just fine.

Bottom Line: In a 10-team league, I am looking to draft Gronkowski in the 6th round. Unless there is a player I feel 'slipped' down to round six, I take Gronk. He has 1st round potential. You may have a SLIGHT disadvantage in the first few games, but he will give you a HUGE advantage once he comes back.

Think about it. If you get him in round 6, you already have 5 good players. You can only start 6 players anyway (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, FLEX). If Gronk falls to round 7, he should be a 'no-brainer.'  If you take anyone else in the 7th round, you're either picking a bench player, or reaching way too soon and far on a different TE or a DEF.

Conclusion: Gronk is a medium risk, super high reward pick in round 6. We know he has the talent to be a round one pick. He should make a full recovery. There are serviceable TE's you can get at the end of your draft or off waivers that are not much worse that TE's you waist round 7 and 8 picks on. They will get you through the first fews weeks. Then Gronk will come back. You will dominate the 2nd half of your season. You will fly through the playoffs. Then you will win the championship.