LeBron James and his "3-point shooting weakness."

LeBron James is the most complete player to ever play the game. He passes like I've only seen Magic Johnson pass. He shuts down the other teams best player with his stellar defense (just ask Paul George or Derrick Rose). He recently passed Larry Bird and Gary Peyton on the all time scoring list and is 29th overall. He sees the floor so well. He's a scorer, team player, clutch shooter, passer, rebounder, defender... 

Haters are dying to find a fault in his game. So they say he is bad at shooting three point shoots. I've looked up the best three point shooters in the top 20 all time scoring list (plus LeBron) and here is what I found - 

Reggie Miller             -   39.47 %

Dirk Nowitzki            -  38.18 %

LeBron James           -   33.91 %

Kobe Bryant             -   33.50 %

Michael Jordan          -   32.68 %

Dominique Wilkins     -  31.87 %

Allen Iverson             -   31.30 %

LeBron James through his career is a better three point shooter then Michael Jordan or Kobe were. Uh-oh, there goes that argument. I guess we have to go back to THIS argument since it's the only one left.

Sources - 

http://www.landofbasketball.com/all_time_leaders/points_total_career_season.htm

The only argument against Peyton Manning for MVP

Peyton Manning is going to get his fifth MVP trophy this year. And he probably deserves it. He has already broken the record for most touchdowns thrown in a season, and he still has one more game to go. If he wins next week, the Broncos get a first round bye. Here is the argument only against him:

MVP stands for the "most valuable player." The player that is most valuable to his team should get the MVP award.

Right now the Seahawks have all but clinched the first seed. The NFC is a much more difficult conference than the AFC. And the NFC west is by far the best division in the NFL. What would the Seahawks be without Russel Wilson? Probably not even a playoff team.

Same goes for the Panthers. If the Panthers win tomorrow, they clinch the 2 seed. Without Cam Newton, this team also would miss the playoffs.

And the Patriots. Before the season even started, many ESPN writers and analysts were saying Tom Brady will have the least amount of talent he's ever had. Expectations for the Patriots were at an all time low. They had a bad defense, Gronkowski was hurt, and all of Brady's other receivers had go to other teams (or gone to prison).

Then the season started. Brady's new number one target Amendola got hurt for a while. Brady started throwing the ball to Aaron Dobson a lot, then he got hurt. Gronk came back for a few games, then they lost him for the rest of the season.

Their four best defensive players all sustained season ending injuries early in the season (Wilfork, Mayo, Kelly and Vollmer).

Yet here the Patriots are. One game out of 1st place in the AFC. Against the Broncos, Tom Brady overcame 3 fumbles in the first 3 drives when they played Peyton Manning and won.  (HIGHLIGHTS)

Also, the season could have been even better. All 4 of the Patriot loses have come down to the last play. (INT on the 3 yard line against the Bengals; rare, weird 'push in the back of your own teammate' call against the Jets; the bear hug on Gronkowski against the Panthers that was a pass interference but then it wasn't but it actually was; and Edelman's dropped pass in the endzone with 12 seconds left against the Dolphins)

What if we replaced these players?

Let's hypothetically replace all these players with a quarterback. Let's pick a quarterback that is so bad, no NFL team even wants him as even their back up. Let's pick Tim Tebow.

Put Tebow on the Seahawks or the Panthers, that team goes misses the playoffs. Probably goes 6-10 or 7-9.

Put Tebow on this Patriot team. They'd be lucky to go 4-12.

Put Tebow on this Broncos team. Oh wait. He WAS on the Broncos. He was on this Bronco team before they got even better with additions like Wes Welker, Julius Thomas, and others.

Replace Peyton Manning with Tim Tebow. With Tebow, this team went 7-4 (he didn't start until week 5), made the playoffs, and beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in his first Playoff game. Last year, with Peyton Manning instead of Tim Tebow, the Broncos lost their first playoff game. In wins/loses, Peyton hasn't been very valuable replacing the "horrible" Tim Tebow.

So is Peyton Manning  more valuable then Wilson, Newton, or Tom? No. However, he is setting records and he is Peyton Manning. We should have just saved time and given Peyton the MVP award when he threw 7 touchdowns in his first game against the Ravens because that's when he already had it won.

PS - Shout out to Jimmy Graham. I think he is the most left out player when discussing MVP candidates. He is such a game changer for Saints. Second on touchdowns behind Jamaal Charles and a good blocker too.

Why Kobe Bryant is Overrated

Kobe Bryant is one of the great basketball players to play in the NBA. But when people actually try to make an argument he's the "best ever?" Kobe tricked us into believing he was better than he really was.

The Lakers

When you play for the Lakers, you play for the greatest sports franchise in United States history (or second behind the Yankees). Wilt played for the Lakers. Karl Malone and Gary Peyton went to the Lakers to end their career. Magic Johnson, Kareem, Shaq, Etc. Probably a third of a fourth of the great players all time put on a Laker jersey at one time or another.

When you play for the best franchise with the biggest fan base in Los Angeles, you can often appear better than are. Above-average players become stars and star become superstars.

Few players have played their entire career with the Lakers. Kobe was the chosen one. And ever since Shaq left town, Kobe's been the best player on the team. In the minds of Laker fans (by far the biggest NBA fan base), the best player on the Lakers is also the best player in the world.

Without a great team, he's had bad seasons. 

 "He has 5 championship rings." .... OK? Kobe had a ton of help those 7 years he got to the finals.

What did he do in the middle of his prime the three years in between Shaq and Pau Gasol? Missed the playoffs (finished 11th in the West), knocked out of the first round playoffs (finished 7th in the west) and knocked out of the first round of the playoffs again (finished 7th in the west). No other all-time great player ever did so poorly for 3 straight years in the middle of their primes.

He always had the best coach in basketball - Phil Jackson.

He wasn't the best player on his own team for the first 3 rings out of 5. Shaq won all three finals MVP awards. He wasn't even the "clutch" player on the team. "Big Shot" Robert Horry was making the game winners.

After Shaq won 3 rings for the Lakers, he was traded to Miami for Lamar Odom, Butler, Grant, and a first round pick. How did Kobe do without Shaq that first year? Missed the Playoffs. (Let me point out that a young LeBron James carried a worse team in 07 to the NBA finals.)

After missing the playoffs, they got Andrew Bynum in the draft. The Lakers has a great team. Still, Kobe could not have success. They lost in the first round of the playoff the next two years in a row.

Now a Question. What happens when an already good team trades Kwame Brown for all-star Pau Gasol? Exactly. Despite Kobe, the Lakers went on to win two more championships.


3 - Kobe gets to (and chooses to) shoot the ball ALL THE TIME.

Kobe has a lot of career points. He has a lot of game winning shots.

Kobe also has missed a ton of shots. He has also missed tons of game winning shots. Of the top 10 scorers all time, he has the lowest FG%.  And of all the Finals MVP's (he has two), he set the record for lowest FG% (both times). It took Kobe five extra seasons to catch Michael Jordan in the alltime scoring list (19 seasons to catch what Michael Jordan accomplished in 14 seasons).

In conclusion - Kobe is a great player. Take out Kobe and insert a different great player like Dwayne Wade or Russell Westbrook into the same situation. I truly believe that player would be considered just as good or better than Kobe. Had Kobe been drafted by a different team, he would be in the same group with Isaiah Thomas, Tracy McGrady, and Allen Iverson. Just "great."

If you take any great shooting guard (Wade, Iverson, Thomas, Westbrook, etc.) and insert him into Kobe's situation; If you give him an entire career with the Lakers, give him Phil Jackson, Shaq, Jerry Buss, and everyone else, and let him shoot as much as Kobe has - Then that shooting guard would have been seen as just as good if not better than Kobe. (Insert shooting guard here) would have 5 championships at least and an easy 32,000 career points.

Links: Kobe is NOT clutch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_y5jwt0brqk

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2015/1/3/7485611/kobe-bryant-clutch-lakers-data

The Underrated 4-0 Patriots

On my way to UVU today at about 11:30 am, I heard a sports radio talk show talk about the “four” undefeated teams - the Broncos, Seahawks, Saints, and Chiefs. The radio hosts talked about how great the Broncos and Seahawks are looking. They also talked about the Saints and Chiefs who are doing so good. Then they had a guest over the phone and they asked him “Besides the Broncos and the Seahawks, which undefeated team to you like more? The Chiefs or the Saints?” Last time I checked, there were five undefeated teams.

What about the only other undefeated team? Not even a mention?

How is a team with Tom Brady at quarterback being so overlooked? How is a team coached by Bill Belichick being so forgotten about? How are the New England Patriots being so left out of the conversation?

It can't be because the Chiefs' or Saint's have had a harder schedule. The best team the Saints have beaten are the Falcons and that game was played in New Orleans. The Patriots beat that same Falcon team in Atlanta. And the Chiefs? They have had the easiest schedule so far. The Jaguars, Giants, Eagles and Cowboys have a combined 3 wins.

I can't be because of the Chief's or Saint's have upside over the Patriots. The Saints and the Chiefs right now are as good as they're going to get. The Patriots are undefeated and have been without their two best receivers. Danny Amendola got hurt in the first game, and Rob Gronkowski (SUPERSTAR) hasn't even played a snap yet. Both will be back soon.

And It doesn't matter if Gronk or Danny come back next week or in week twelve. The Patriots are going to win their division and make the playoffs regardless. Then Amendola and Gronk will be healthy and the Patriots will be at their best.

It also can’t be because of the the Chief's or Saint's past success over the Patriots'. If the past tells us anything, it tells us the Patriots are always a great team. The Saints have only been in one Super Bowl before, and the Chiefs zero. The Patriots have been to five since 2002 and have won three of them.

Who made it the furthest last year of the five undefeated teams? The Patriots. (AFC championship game.)

Who was last team of the five undefeated go to the super bowl? The Patriots. (The year before last.)

So why is it? Why, of the five undefeated teams, are the Patriots being left out? The team that is going to get even better when Danny and Gronk come back. The team that has had the hardest schedule of them. The team that has had the most success.

Here is my prediction about those Saints and Chiefs that some of you love so much. First the Saints will make the playoffs and lose their first game to the 49ers or the Packers. Second The Chiefs will make the playoffs and lose their first game to the Colts or their second game the Broncos.

And here is my prediction for the Patriots that are being shrugged off and forgotten. They will win their division (again). Then they play the Broncos in the AFC championship game. It will be in Denver. It will be in January. It will be cold. Maybe windy. Chance of snow. We all know Brady is great in any weather, and Peyton can only play in "great conditions" (0-4 in playoff games that dip under 40 degrees F.). Patriots will win 21-16 and make it to the Super Bowl. Again.

Your Guide to Beating the Denver Broncos

The Broncos are not only the best team in the NFL right now, but are ridiculously better than everyone else. The Broncos right now are as good as any other team in the history of the NFL during the first four weeks. If any team is going to beat them, here are four things that team must do:

1. Dare the Broncos to RUN the football - Don't waste your time trying to stop the run. Let them run free. Focus all energy on stopping the pass. Peyton doesn't want to run the ball. He doesn't trust any of this 3 running backs (Ball, Moreno, and Hillman) as he shouldn't (they kind of suck). Peyton loves throwing the ball. Peyton wants to throw the ball every time. He doesn't want to go a whole game just handing the ball off.

And If  their running backs are picking up two or three yards every time they carry the ball? Who cares? You shouldn't. Two yard gains are a million times better than Peyton Manning having open looks to his four dangerous receivers (D. Thomas, J. Thomas, Decker, and Welker). As long as you're effectively guarding the pass, let them pick up small gains on the ground all day.

Throw away your run-stopping defenses. Have as much man power as possible focused on defending the pass. When Payton hands the ball off and the running back picks up three yards, that is a win for you!

The only time I even think about run defences is on 3rd and short. And I still am expecting a fake hand off and have my defence ready for a big play.

2. Have a confusing defence - Peyton is maybe the smartest quarterback of all time. If he knows what defence you are playing, he's going to absolutely murder you. Your defence must be one-hundred percent in the game. They must show and sell one thing, then do the other. Show a zone defence, and then play man. Show blitz, then don't, then do. Do everything and nothing.

If I am in the AFC, I start making a defencive playbook today that I will only use when I play the Broncos. Even if I don't play then until week 17.

3. Have an effective pass rush - This one you can't just plan. If your teams can't pressure a quarterback without blitzing all the time, then you're going to lose to the broncos. Peyton is a double-edged sword. If you blitz him too much, he will burn you. If you give him all day in the pocket, he will burn you. You must be able to pressure him without having to blitz often. If you have a good pass rush, and only give him so much time, you can keep Peyton in check.

4 - You still need to score - The Broncos also have a pretty good defence. Plus, even if you do all the right things on defence, Peyton will not be held to zero points. If you hold the Broncos under twenty points, then you did a great job. That means you have to be able to score at least twenty points if you want to win.

Conclusion - The broncos will not lose to any bad team this year. They are too good and too disciplined. The only teams that have a chance to beat them must have an effective pass rush, a good offence, and confusing defence, and protect well against the pass (forget the run).

The only four teams on the Broncos schedule that are good enough to even have a chance are the Colts, Patriots, Chiefs, and Texans. And probably not even the Texans. If I were one of them, I start today to make an elusive defencive strategy to use against the Broncos.

And even all that might not be enough. The Broncos have a real chance to go undefeated this year. They are historically good right now and, barring an injury to Peyton Manning, will continue to dominate all year.

Why Rafael Nadal is better than Roger Federer

Did you see Nadal destroy everyone in his win at the US Open again? He went almost the entire tornament without dropping a game where he served. He beat number one Djokovic comfortably in 4 sets for the championship.

Rafael Nadal is the best player in our generation. Perhaps the best of all time. Nadal is better than Roger Federer ever was. A lot better. Federer was good, but not the best ever. Not by a long shot.

Federer does have the record of grand slam titles with 17. But who did he beat? No one. Federer's wins were in a time period when there were no great tennis players. Nadal was still a teenager and Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi were almost retired. Federer is a good player that got to play against a bunch of nobodies.


When Federer was in his prime and young Nadal stepped onto the scene, Federer stopped winning almost immediatly. Nadal has a career 21-10 record against Fed, and is 8-2 in grand slam matches. One of those two wins over Nadal was the Wimbledon final where Nadal was playing with a messed up knee, and Fed still only won just by the thinnest of margins (7-6 4-6 7-6 2-6 6-2). This was in Federer's prime, and Nadal was still up and coming.

Since then, Nadal has dominated Federer. Djokovic has dominated Federer. Federer's "prime" was when he was twenty four because when he turned twenty seven, Nadal was already kicking his butt. Nadal is now twenty seven and he is still dominating.

So Federer has 17 grand slam title compared to Nadal's 13. But like I said earlier, Federer didn't have to beat anyone good. Nadal has to fight for every single championship. He has always had to go up against Federer and Djokovic - two of the greats. Even Andy Murry is probably better than anyone Federer had to play when he was winning his grand slams. On top of that, Nadal has missed quiet a few grand slam opportunities because of injury.

Nadal is the best player I've been alive to watch. Maybe the best ever. Federer is great, but not legendary.


EDIT 6/9/2014 - With his 14th grand slam title, Nadal is now the only player to win at least one Grand Slam for 10 years straight. He also has 4 Davis Cups (Federer has 0) and Nadal has an Olympic gold in singles and Federer does not.

Nadal is also now 9-2 in Grand Slams against Federer. The only 2 losses were on Federer's best court (Wimbledon) in the Final. Also, Nadal was only 19 and 20 years old then. Since Nadal was 20 years old, he's never lost to Federer in a grand slam tournament.

EDIT 10/25/2014 - In a nut shell, Fed dominated until actual competition arrived. He feasted on sub-par players. He won 12 of his 17 grand slams in his early 20's before players like Nadal and Djokovic were even 20 years old yet. When Federer hit 26 (his "prime") he should have been more dominate that ever. Instead, he started losing because actual competition like Nadal and Djokovic stepped into the scene. He was 26 in 2008, and since the beginning of 2008, he has only won five grand slams. Nadal has more than double that since 2008 with ELEVEN. Even Djokovic has more with seven. And this was all right under Federer's prime years (starting at age 26).

Bottom line: Rodger Federer was the best tennis player compared to his competition for only three years. Ranging from 2004-2007. During those three years with poor competition, Federer took advantage and won 12 grand slams! When the competition got better (Nadal turned 20 years old, Djokovic turned 20 years old, etc.), Federer, who was in the middle of his prime at age 26, stopped winning.

From 2008, Nadal, injuries and all, won 11 slams to Federer's five. That's more than double.

And since 2008, Nadal is never lost to Federer in a grand slam tournament (9-0)

Tom Brady's Greatest Weakness

Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback in this generation. Maybe the best all time. 3 super bowl rings and

great stats. Today he became the second quarterback ever to throw a touchdown in fifty consecutive games. I have him tied at 1 and 1A with John Elway for top quarterback ever. Brady can fit a football through any window. He sends the football flying like a missile through two or three defenders and hits his target perfectly. Brady is a great leader, a great passer, and a great play caller. However there is one big, nasty flaw in his game.

I don't know if it is a result of bad play calling, or a loss of confidence, or something else. Every time the Patriots lose a playoff game, it is because of this same flaw in Brady. When he leaves at half time with a small lead, he come back onto the field a different person. He looks scared. He has no confidence. He looks like he wants to just run out the clock and cling onto his three point lead.

Tom Brady will kill you if you give him a big lead early. If you need a comeback win, there is no one I'd rather have than him. But if you go into halftime with small lead, please give me someone else.

Today was a fine example. He went into the half winning 13-3 with all the momentum in the world. He had thrown for 136 yards and a touchdown. In the second half, the Patriots did not even score once. They were bailed out by their defence. Brady threw for 49 yards and 0 touchdowns. He let the Jets back into the game and almost lost.

Lets look back at the years at some of the most important losses in Brady's career.

2013 The Patriots were at home against the Ravens. One game away from the Super Bowl. The first half ended 13-7 in favor of the Patriots. But, Tom Brady stopped passing with confidence. The failed to score the entire second half. He let the Ravens come back, take the lead, and knock him out of the playoffs. Final score 28-13.

2012 Super Bowl. Tom Brady had a one point lead going into the half, and only scored once in the second half. He did not score in the fourth quarter. He stopped attacking. He played way too conservative. The Giants were able to come back, score 6 points in the fourth quarter, and win the game 21-17.

2009 Undefeated season. They killed everyone they played. There were accused of running up the score in some games. Brady and Randy Moss were breaking all kinds of records. They got to the Super Bowl. They went into the half with a 7-3 lead. Brady tried to run out the time. He didn't Attack. He became passive. He looked scared to throw the ball. He reacted instead of acted. As a result, the Giants came back and won the game 17-14.

Conclusion - If Tom Brady would keep attacking for a whole game instead of trying to run out the clock out with a small lead, he would probably have at least three more super bowl rings to show for it. This is his greatest weakness.

The Right, The Wrong, and the Sort Of

Week one is almost over. What a Sunday that was. So many games ending within just one possession. It made for some very exciting games.

Those of you that heard me out on who to avoid and who get grab should be thanking me... for the most part. Here are my predictions at the beginning of the season and how they look after week 1.

The Right

Stevan Ridley - I told everyone to stay away from Stevan Ridley in my "Have Not's" blog. And what happened? Exactly what I said was going to happen! Ridley has a fumble and less caries than another running back on his own team (Vereen). He only 2 more than the third string running back (Blount). I predict Vereen and Blount will continue to take playing time away from Ridley. He should not be trusted as a number 1 fantasy running back.

Dez Bryant - Stay away from him, I said. Round 2 is way too early to draft him, I said. Miles Austin will cut into his playing time, I said. I hope you listened to me. Bryant had 4 receptions for 22 yards and no touchdowns. That is good for 4th on his team in receptions and 5th in receiving yards. Miles Austin, however, had 10 receptions for 72 yards. Anyone who drafted Dez Bryant before AJ Green or Matt Forte are regretting it now, and will continue to do so throughout the season.

Danny Amendola - I've been grabbing Amendola usually 5th or 6th round. Way too many people let Amendola slide far down the draft. He is so talented and is Brady's number one receiver. That means he is at worse an average WR1 or a great WR2 in any fantasy league. Today he had 10 receptions for 104 yards. Brady will continue to throw the ball to him often.


The Wrong

Zach Sudfelt - I encouraged drafting Zach Sudfeld. I believe this isn't too bad because I suggested drafting him no earlier than round 11, so he's not a huge loss. However,  I was wrong about him being a starting TE in 10 team leagues. He failed to score any fantasy points today. I personally am keeping him for a few more weeks to see if he will turn around. He will be on the bench however. I will be starting someone else next week.


The Sort Of

The Denver Receivers - I stayed away from Denver's receivers because I knew they would either all be mediocre, or someone would get left out. And low and behold, Eric Decker was left out. Even on a night Peyton Manning threw for 465 yards and 7 touchdown, Decker only have 2 receptions for 32 yards. So those of you who drafted Decker... you should have listened to me. I expect Peyton to continue to leave him out of the loop, and look first for other targets.

Demaryius Thomas and Welker, on the other hand, were fantastic. I expect them to continue to do well. Thomas is a great WR1 and Welker will be a great WR2 or even a WR1. Those of you who drafted Thomas or Welker... Good thing you didn't listen to me!

4 Things I Learned from Opening Day

The first game of the season was really fun to watch... for the first half of the game. Denver ran Baltimore out the door in the second half. That passing game for the Broncos looked amazing. Here are four things I learned from the opening game.

1. Hello Wes Welker, Goodbye Eric Decker - Peyton Manning and Wes Welker quickly found chemistry. Welker caught 9 of his 11 targets. (The second most catches by a Bronco receiver was 5. Welker almost caught double more than any other Bronco!) Welker has got Manning's respect and Manning will look for him often the rest of the season.

Eric Decker has lost his spot as an every down receiver. He only caught two of his seven targets, and some of this drops were very costly. He dropped an easy touchdown pass. Then, to put the game away, the Broncos needed a first down. It was second down, and Peyton put the ball right in Deckers hands for a first down, and he dropped it again. Luckily for the Broncos, different receivers stepped up the next play both times and saved the drives. Manning obviously cannot trust Decker. And now the Welker is here, he doesn't have too. I expect Decker to have a very low season in terms of stats. Oh yeah, and here's another reason Decker isn't going to have a lot of targets. Meet Julius Thomas.

2. Julius Thomas - Hello Julius Thomas! 5 catches (tied for second most on the team) and two touchdowns. He is talented and very physical gifted. Peyton has new toy, and he has big plans for him. I expect DeMaryius Thomas and Wes Welker to have better overall season, but Julius Thomas will have a good season as well.

3. Peyton Manning - Peyton looked better than he has since 2007, maybe even better than ever. What a historic night for Peyton Manning. If anyone still thinks Peyton is slowing down because of age or injury, you're wrong. Simple as that. He is playing at 100%.

Peyton's best talent was never his physical talent. You do not see Peyton fitting the ball into tiny windows like Tom Brady or scrambling like Brett Favre. Peyton's biggest strength is his mind. He knows exactly where the ball should go. He coaches his receivers to where they should be. Peyton could play quarterback until he is sixty years old. Tom Brady can fit a football threw the tiniest window, but Peyton Manning never needs to. He creates giant windows for himself. His superpower was, is, and always will be his brain. And if anything he's getting better, not worse, over time. He's getting smarter and more experienced.

4. Fast-paced offence - This game was the first of many games this season that will feature such a fast paced offence. Offences statistics will be through the roof this year. Since football began, teams have focused on  having a high 'time of possession.' Over the last few years, teams have been getting more and more away from this. In 2011, three QB's threw over 5,000 yards (Brady, Brees, and Matthew Stafford). Prior to that, only two QB's had ever thrown for that many. In 2012, more QB's threw for over 4000 yards than ever before (11. Previous record was 10 set in 2009 and 2011). Offensive stats over the last 5 years have been skyrocketing.

Chip Kelly said it before the season even started. "Time of possession is overrated." Peyton Manning was the first QB to throw 7 touchdowns in a single game since 1969. I wouldn't be surprised to see him or another QB do that again this season. This season is going to be high scoring all year.

On a fantasy football note: I want players that play for or against fast offences. I am starting DeSean Jackson over Mike Wallace this week. If Chip Kelly's offence as fast as the Broncos were, then I expect Jackson to have numbers similar to DeMaryius Thomas last night. Faster offence means more opportunity to score for both sides.

And if you thought yesterday was fun, that was just one game!

Ravens/Broncos box score - http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=330905007

3 QB's over 5000 yards 2011 - http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/01/drew-brees-tom-brady-matthew-stafford-all-top-5000-yards/

11 QB's over 4000 yards 2012 - http://www.sportsgrid.com/nfl/more-quarterbacks-threw-for-4000-yards-in-2012-than-any-other-season/

Time of possession overrated - http://sportsusamedia.com/nfl-football-news/eagles-coach-chip-kelly-time-of-possession-overrated/

Patriot Receivers on Clearance

Tom Brady is one of the best quarterbacks to ever play in the NFL. I think he's the best or second best next to Elway. Yet all his receivers going so late in the fantasy football drafts.

Tom Brady is going to get a lot of yards thrown and a lot of touchdowns. He always has. He always will. This year, people are saying he has no one to throw to. When has it been any different? His number one receiver for the last six years was Wes Welker, a guy who got cut from the Dolphins because he wasn't good enough. Tom Brady turned him into a possible hall of famer.

This year, no one is drafting his receivers again. In a 10 team action draft, ESPN ranks the three top bronco receivers at a combine $60! (Thomas $28, Welker $19, and Decker $13.) As opposed to the Patriots top four receivers who total just $29. ($14 Amendola, $12 Gronkowski, $2 Thompkins, $1 Sudfeld.) I believe Peyton Manning and Tom Brady will finish with similar stats. At least one receiver on the patriots will get a lot more fantasy points than they are projected.

Let's look at the options.

Danny Amendola is the most talented wide receiver Tom Brady has ever played with (next to Randy Moss of course). Unlike Welker in Miami, he was actually making a name for himself as a 'pre-patriot' with the Rams. However, he is still going very late in the fantasy drafts. People take Tom Brady's #1 wide receiver after players like Wes Welker, Reggie Wayne, Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, and Hakeem Nicks.... Yikes!

Amendola has a much higher floor and a MUCH higher ceiling than those duds. Amendola could easily be a top 10 receiver this year. He's on track right now to be Tom Brady's #1 wide receiver. If he stays that way all year, he will easily put up Wes Welker type numbers or better. And getting him in the same round as Mike Wallace and Dwayne Bowe is a steal. I take Amendola in round 5. Even when I don't take him in five, he'll sometimes slip to me in round six. People avoid him, and you should not.

I've already done a whole post on Gronk (http://keelesports.blogspot.com/2013/09/gronk.html), so I'll keep this real short. I like Rob Gronkowski a lot. I like him in round six or seven, but often people will take him earlier than that. I don't want to use a top 3 pick on such a risk, even a risk with a reward like Gronk. If he's there round 6, I'll usually grab him. If he slips to 7, I take him laughing.

Kenbrell Thompkins has impressed in training camp. If you do well on the patriots, Tom Brady knows it and keeps feeding you. Thompkins is set up to be the #2 receiver this year, taking Brandon Lloyds spot. Last year, Lloyd was going in round 4 or 5 in 10 team drafts. This year, Thompkins is going in round 13 or 14. I usually take him round 12 or even 11 just to be sure I get him.

Around round 12, people are starting to waste picks on players like Michael Floyd, Fred Jackson, Knowshon Moreno, Jermichael Finley, Matt Schaub, Isaiah Pead, and Justin Blackmon. Probably all of these players will never play on your starting roster and you'll end up dropping them. Thompkins has way more potential than anyone you'll find this late in drafts. (And think about this: If Amendola gets hurts again and Gronk comes back later instead of sooner, Thompkins could be Brady's #1 receiver. That's a strong #2 WR at worst!)

Lastly is Zach Sudfeld.  Even if he loses all this touches when Gronkowski gets back, he is still worth the round 14 pick. You can get him in the last few rounds. Sudfeld often goes undrafted. If you already drafted, check your waivers for Sudfeld. Here is a guy that is taking Aaron Hernandez spot, and temporarily filling in for Gronkowski. In round 14 or 15, he's a high reward no risk guy. Rounds 14 and 15 are usually a crap shoot anyway, and getting  a 6'8 TE on the Patriots that's going to start week one? Count me in! As long as he doesn't have another fumble like pre-season, Brady will throw to him a lot.

Now I'm not encouraging you to go out and pick Tompkins and Sudfeld in rounds 5 and 6. They do have uncertainty and risk with them. But what a deal they are at the price they have. Go get all four Patriots receivers if others shy away from them and win your fantasy football league.

My 'Have Nots'

As I do mock drafts and real drafts for fantasy football, I notice certain players I never get. I call them my Have Nots.
*I'll be using language from a normal espn ten team league.*


Alfred Morris - Morris usually goes in the first round, around the 9th pick. Here is why I have avoided him so far. His coach, Mike Shanahan, has always used multiple running backs. Running backs on a Shanahan team never have elite fantasy points. Starting running backs are always changing with Shanahan. Morris did very well last year, but I am scared Shanahan could find some other talent on the bench, and steal touches from Morris.

Also, Morris was a rookie last year. He could very well fall into that "sophomore slump." There are just too many risks to make Morris a round 1 pick. I would take him with maybe the 15th pick overall, mid second round. But in the 1st round, I want someone with less risks.

Players I am taking ahead of Morris - (in order) The top 8 projects RB's, Trent Richardson, LeSean McCoy (very underrated this year), Aaron Rodgers, and Calvin Johnson.

Stevan Ridley - Ridley usually goes in the early to mid second round. I don't hate Ridley, but a lot of people are too high on him. Ridley's coach Bill Belichick has always seen running backs as a dime a dozen. Who was the last Patriots running back to have 2 good fantasy years in a row?

Also, the Patriots have a QB named Tom Brady. He throws it a lot.

Also, the Patriots have an on-coming young stud named Shane Vereen that could steal touches from Ridley. They also got a monster LaMarcus Blount this off season that could steal touches from Ridley, particularly goal line touches thus taking away touchdowns.

Players I am taking ahead of Ridley - Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning.

Dez Bryant - He is going as the 2nd or 3rd WR, usually in round 2. I think he's good, but not that good. One problem I have with him is he always goes too high as a WR. I'm still looking for a 2nd RB or a QB. My other problem with Dez is I think Miles Austin is back and will take some targets away from Bryant. (I actually have Miles Austin on a lot of teams!)

Players I am taking ahead of Bryant - Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Chris Johnson, and Frank Gore.

All 3 Bronco Receivers - There are 3 receivers from Denver going ahead of many number 1 receivers. Peyton Manning only has one football. His two receivers did good last year, but now you add Welker to the mix, there's only one way to go, and that's less targets per receiver.

Demaryius Thomas is good but he's going as the 5th or 6th WR in the late 2nd round.

Players I am taking ahead of Thomas - Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Tom Brady,and Jimmy Graham.

Wes Welker. Who knows how he will fit in. He's going to take some targets away from Thomas and Decker, but how much? Also, Welker was nothing before Tom Brady. Now that he doesn't have Brady anymore, maybe we'll see his true colors again and he won't be very good.

Players I am taking ahead of Welker - Vincent Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, McFadden, Cruz, Amendola, Lacy, Murray, Colston, Kaepernick, RGIII, and Reggie Bush.

Eric Decker - He's projected to be the number 3 receiver for Denver, yet he's going ahead number 1 receivers. Peyton Manning is good, but he only has one football. He only has so much time in one game.

Players I am taking ahead of Decker - Reggie Bush, Rob Gronkowski, Matt Ryan, Lamar Miller, Reggie Wayne, Mike Wallace, Hakeem Nicks, Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Jordy Nelson, Russell Wilson, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Matt Stafford. 

All tight ends - All tight ends that aren't named Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski are too overrated. They all go too early. Graham and Gronk often go too early as well. Jason Witten and Vernon Davis are the 3rd and 4th TE being drafted. I believe they're risk/reward isn't much better than a Zach Sudfeld or a Jordan Cameron that you can get in the last 4 rounds. I like to keep my eye on Antonio Gates. I personally like him. I think he has pretty high potential. I try to get him in the 10th round if he is still there. Maybe late 9th.

Players I am taking ahead of Antonio Gates and other TE's

Greg Jennings, Andrew Luck, Michael Vick, Anquan Boldin, Miles Austin, T.Y. Hilton, Seattle Defence, San Francisco Defence,Steve Johnson

Players I am taking ahead of other TE's besides Gates

Bears Defence, Ben Tate, Kenbrell Thompkins, Kenny Britt, Emmanuel Sanders, Ben Roethlisberger, and the Steelers Defence.

*Keep in mind positions you've already drafted. EI: If you have 3 Rb's and 1 WR, you should probably draft Victor Cruz over Reggie bush, and vise-versa if you have 2 Rb's and 2 or 3 WR's.*

Gronk

Yesterday the New England Patriots cut their team down to the required 53 man roster. On the list was Rob Gronkowski - their stud Tight End coming into his 4th year. This is news not because of we question his talent, but his injuries. The Patriots have been watching Gronkowski as he recovers from his surgeries. They could have put Gronk on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list.  This would have allowed the patriots to have another person on their 53 man roster, because Gronk wouldn't count. The con would be Gronkowski wouldn't be able to play the first six games of the season.

MEANING: The Patriots have reason to believe Gronk will be back sooner than 6 weeks.

Today, Gronkowski was at practice in "full pads" for the first time. (http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/9624968/rob-gronkowski-full-pads-new-england-patriots-practice)

As I am watching fantasy football drafts, I see Gronk being passed on. Other TE's are often picked ahead of him (including Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Vernon Davis, and others). I have Gronk as my number 2 TE after Jimmy Graham and you should too. I would take Gronk 2 or 3 rounds before any other tight end.

The Talent: Lets look back quickly at how good Gronk really is. He set the record for most touchdowns by a TE in their first two seasons, and tied Randy Moss' record of 28 offensive touchdowns by any position in their first two seasons. In 2011 he scored 18 touchdowns in 2011 (TE record) and 17 of them were by reception (also TE record) and had 1,327 yards (TE record). He was also the first TE ever to lead the NFL in reception touchdowns.

The Opportunity: The Patriots lost Welker, Hernandez and Lloyd this year. Brady will be looking to target Gronk all the time. Gronk is set up to have more targets per game than ever before. This could easily lead to his best stats per game in any season.

Missing Games: Missing the first couple games won't even hurt you as bad  as you think. Two reasons.

             1) You just need to get into the playoffs, which is usually six or eight teams that make the playoffs. If you can get Gronk at such a discounted price and have him in the playoffs, you will win your league.

             2) The TE position is weak everywhere this year. You won't be too far behind with a temporary waiver pick. The "best" TE's after gronk (Vernon Davis, Witten, Tony Gonzalez...) are not the much better than TE's on the waivers (Jordan Cameron, Coby Fleener, Zach Sudfeld...). I can always get a serviceable TE in the last couple rounds of a draft instead of using a high pick for a high risk, mediocre reward player like Vernon Davis. I will be just fine.

Bottom Line: In a 10-team league, I am looking to draft Gronkowski in the 6th round. Unless there is a player I feel 'slipped' down to round six, I take Gronk. He has 1st round potential. You may have a SLIGHT disadvantage in the first few games, but he will give you a HUGE advantage once he comes back.

Think about it. If you get him in round 6, you already have 5 good players. You can only start 6 players anyway (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, FLEX). If Gronk falls to round 7, he should be a 'no-brainer.'  If you take anyone else in the 7th round, you're either picking a bench player, or reaching way too soon and far on a different TE or a DEF.

Conclusion: Gronk is a medium risk, super high reward pick in round 6. We know he has the talent to be a round one pick. He should make a full recovery. There are serviceable TE's you can get at the end of your draft or off waivers that are not much worse that TE's you waist round 7 and 8 picks on. They will get you through the first fews weeks. Then Gronk will come back. You will dominate the 2nd half of your season. You will fly through the playoffs. Then you will win the championship.

My Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

The NFL is just a few weeks away and that means it's time for Fantasy Football. My draft was last week. In this article i will talk about the draft. I'll tell all my strategies before the draft, give insights for all my picks, and give a conclusion at the end.

Our league is H2H. A team consists of QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, FLEX, DEF, K and six bench spots (typical ESPN settings). Our league has 12 teams this year (we only had 10 last year). Here was my pre-draft strategy by position:

RB - Two years ago, I picked Adrian Peterson with my first pick, and he got hurt. I spent the rest of the season struggling to find a good #2 running back. Last year I waited too long to draft good running backs, so I again spent the season with a bad #2 RB. Since it was hard to find a good RB on waivers with 10 teams, it is going be even harder with 12 teams. I decided this year to in order to avoid that I was to get 3 good running backs in the first 4 or 5 rounds. Also I would like 1 or 2 starting RBs with high potential on my bench.

QB - I reached both of the last two years on QB and it did not serve me well. (Philip Rivers 2 years ago and Matthew Stafford last year.) This year QB is really deep. I was determined to let other people reach for QB's. I would wait and get someone like Colin Kaepernick and a high risk/reward back up like Michael Vick.

WR - Usually i find WR is a lot deeper than RB. If you think about it, usually an NFL team will have one RB that gets a lot of fantasy points, and the 2nd string RB doesn't do hardly anything. WR, however, can help you even at the 2nd or 3rd string (ei: White/Jones, Decker/Welker/Thomas, Nelson/Cobb/Jones...). I would like to have a solid WR, maybe with my 2nd or 3rd pick, but I don't want to reach for a WR. I believe you could find a serviceable WR later on in the draft and even on the waivers. Serviceable RB's, however, are usually gone a lot sooner and much harder to find on waivers.

TE - Whoever has Jimmy Graham has a big advantage over everyone else. He is much better than the rest of the TE's. However - I don't want to use a high pick for him when I could get a solid RB2 or a good WR1 instead. If I don't get Graham, then I am going to wait and wait and wait on TE. The next batch after Graham are all overrated. Tony Gonzalez, Vernon Davis, and Jason Witten will surely go too early. Rudolph, Olson, and Daniels as well. If Gronk or Antonio Gates slip, I would take them. The is however high risk for both.

DEF - The Seahawks and the 49ers are the two best. I like the Bears too. For those three I would start looking for them around rounds 7 or 8. If they're all gone then I'm waiting a bit longer. Hopefully I can get the Steelers in a later round.

K - I am not touching a kicker until the last or second to last round.

Actual Draft

I got the 8th pick out of twelve. I would rather be close to the end like the 10th or 11th. But It's ok. I will still dominate.

(PS) - One guy picked 49ers players almost the whole time, so this was almost like an 11 team league instead of 12..

Round (Overall)

1st (8th) - Jamaal Charles. I knew I wanted a top running back with my 1st pick and i got it.

2nd (17th) - Drew Brees. I was going to wait on QB's, but the RB's and WR's I would have picked were all gone. I hoped that someone like Trent Richardson or Calvin Johnson would fall to me, but they didn't. Aaron Rodgers was also gone, or I would have picked him over Brees.

        I could have picked Stevan Ridley. However I feel he's a big risk. As a patriots fan, I know Bill Belichick sees RB's as a dime a dozen. When was the last time the Patriots had the same, good fantasy RB 2 years in a row? With Tom Brady at the helm, you know they're going to throw a lot. 24 year old Shane Vereen and newly acquired LeGarrette Blount could significantly cut into Ridley's goal line touches, and maybe even take the starting job from him. So I will pass on any RB for the New England Patriots.

        I also could have pick Matt Forte but i didn't want to reach on anyone and that would have been a big reach. Hopefully he will fall to me in the 3rd round?

        I feel that Brees was no steal at 17 but neither was he a reach. It will be nice to have a great QB for a change instead of Rivers or Stafford throwing interceptions all season.

3rd (32nd) - Chris Johnson. Well Forte didn't make it out of the 2nd round. Staying true to my RB strategy, I picked who i felt was the best RB at the time. Plus, there wasn't a WR there worth a 3rd round pick. (Gone were Marshall, Jones, White, Cruz, Green, Bryant, and Thomas.)

4th (41st) - Darren McFadden. In between my last pick and this, Jones-Drew, Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson were all picked. Once again, I would have to reach for a WR, so I took who i felt was the best RB available. Plus I feel that after McFadden, there is a huge drop off at RB. (Sproles was the next best RB. No thanks!)

5th (56th) - Danny Amendola. I have 3 RB and a QB. I have the talent and depth at RB i wanted. Now it's time to draft 2 or 3 WR's in a row. Welker almost fell to me but went 50th. Reggie Wayne went 53rd. I really like Amendola's talent. I like even more that he is Tom Brady's number one target. He has high reward potential. (Tom Brady hooking up with Amendola in the pre-season --> http://nfl.univision.com/videos/video/2013-08-16/danny-amendola-anoto-su-primer-td-como-patriot)

6th (65th) - Mike Wallace. Antonio Brown went 64th. I liked Wallace more last week when i drafted him than today, but I still think he has high potential. He used to be a top receiver a few years ago. If he can develop some chemistry with his new QB, he could be a solid WR2 for me. (33 yard gain -->  http://www.miamidolphins.com/multimedia/videos/Highlight_Tannehill_To_Wallace_For_33Yard_Gain/54bda4a8-f89b-4641-9858-0568f162eea8)

7th (80th) - DeSean Jackson. With Amendola's risk injury and Wallace's risk of sucking, I wanted to use my next pick for a 3rd WR. Jackson is someone who has the talent to be great. Maybe with a new coach and with Maclin out, he will be worth it. He can be my WR2 if something bad happens to someone else.

8th (89th) - Chris Ivory. I've been keeping my eye on TE, DEF, and backup QB, but they're all going too early. The good DEFs (including Seattle, San Fran, Chicago, Denver and Houston) are all gone. The top 9 TE's are all gone. Big Ben, Eli, and Romo all went last round. Picking Flaco or Vick would be too much a reach. So i picked a starting RB with some good potential.

9th (104th) - Rashard Mendenhall. All the starting RB's are almost all gone. I took one of the last ones. Mendenhall has talent potential. I don't expect to start Mendenhall very often (if ever), but having him on the bench just in case of injuries or bye weeks will be nice.

10th (113th) - Kenny Britt. TE, DEF, and QB are still being reached on too much. Flaco and Vick are gone. Britt has high potential if he can stay healthy. With my WR's being risks, It's good to have some depth just incase there is more risk that reward.
11th (128th) - Pittsburgh DEF - I have 5 RB's and 4 WR's. I'm probably not going to pick anymore RB or WR. I only have two bench spots left anyway. It's time to pick something else. I like the steelers as much as anyone after Seattle, San Fran, and Chicago. They have a pretty soft schedule their first few games, and they are the Steelers. The steel curtain. They have a defensive tradition in Pittsburgh. I trust them just as much as I trust the Patriots, Broncos, or Bengals who all went several rounds earlier.

12th (137th) - Martellus Bennett. I'm a Bears fan. Hopefully Marc Trestman will turn the bears into a more offensive team, and Bennett can be a big part of it. Plus I don't think he's any worse than other TE's drafted several rounds before him (Daniels, Gresham and Fleener).

13th (152nd) - Dustin Keller. He's had some good chemistry with Tannehill. Maybe he'll be a top 10 or 12 TE? Update 8/18/2013 - Dustin Keller is out for the year after his knee injury yesterday. I picked up Zach Sudfeld to replace him. Sudfeld is Aaron Hernandez'  replacement on the Patriots and should be a good backup. At least until Gronkowski is back.

14th (161st) - Alex Smith. Best QB left. New team, new coach... maybe he'll be good? Hopefully it won't matter since I have Drew Brees anyway.

15h (176th) - Robbie Gould. Last pick, I needed a kicker... Kickers are pretty much a 'crap shoot' anyway. Besides being a bears fan, I picked Gould because of his opportunity. The Bears have a history of being unable to move the chains and get into the endzone. There should be plenty of opportunity for Gould to kick field goals. And he has plenty of job security. He is the bears kicker now and has been for a while.

In conclusion, I am happy with my team this year. I think I did the best with the position I had. I got a lot of people I like without having to reach too much. Barring an injury to Charles or Brees, I have no doubt i'll get into the playoffs this year.