Tuesday, May 10, 2022

Utah Jazz 2022 Offseason 4 Options: Option 4 - Tank Next Year

After losing to the Mavericks in the 1st round of the playoffs, the Utah Jazz must face reality: they are not a Tier 1 team and they are not going to get better with time. They must make a big change.

And they only have four options:

Option 1: Fix their biggest problems while keeping Rudy Gobert & Donovan Mitchell (if possible). READ HERE

Option 2: Trade Rudy Gobert & do a mini-rebuild around Donovan Mitchell. READ HERE

Option 3: Trade Donovan Mitchell for an aging superstar for ~2 year championship window (if possible). READ HERE

Option 4: Tank.


Option 4: Tank to get the player you want and bribe the commissioner to make sure you get the #1 overall draft pick.


Comp: 1996-97 San Antonio Spurs / 2002-03 Cleveland Cavaliers


In the 1996-97 NBA season, David Robinson was recovering from a fractured foot. After it healed in January, he played six game, then the Spurs shut him down for the rest of the season. They were horrible the rest of the season and ended up getting the #1 overall pick - Tim Duncan. They finished 13th in the West (they were the 2nd seed in the West the year before).

In the 2002-2003 NBA season, the Cleveland Cavaliers finished season with a record of 17-65, their worst record since 1982. Just in time to get the #1 overall pick so they could draft Cleveland native LeBron James.

The Utah Jazz have NEVER had the #1 overall pick, and they had the #2 pick just one time (1980 - Darrell Griffith).

Maybe it's time to change that?

If the Jazz can't get to where they want to be this offseason through Option 1Option 2, or Option 3, then it's time to tank.

And honestly, 2022-23 is shaping up to be a pretty good year to tank.

First of all, there's not many tanking teams this year. The Thunder will be tanking again. Same with the Rockets. Probably the Magic. Maybe the Knicks? I don't think the Pistons will take this season. Aka: the Utah Jazz would easily be a bottom 4 team in the NBA this year if they trade their vets for future picks.

Secondly, This is supposedly a deep draft class. Is projected #1 Victor Wembanyama "that dude"? Is he a Tim Duncan or LeBron James can't miss player? Is it worth throwing away a season to try for him? Are there other franchise-caliber players in this class?

Does tanking even work?

6 out of 8 playoff teams say yes.

6 of the 8 current playoff teams have a player they drafted in the top #3 since 2014!
  1. The Phoenix Suns starting center Deandre Ayton was the 2018 #1 overall pick.
  2. The Dallas Mavericks best player Luka Doncic was the 2018 #3 pick.
  3. The Memphis Grizzlies best player Ja Morant was the 2019 #2 pick and their 2nd best player Jaren Jackson Jr. was the 2018 #4 pick.
  4. The Boston Celtics best player Jayson Tatum was the 2017 #3 pick and their 2nd best player Jaylen Brown was the 2016 #3 pick .
  5. The Philadelphia 76ers best player Joel Embiid was the #3 pick in 2014. And their second best player James Harden they got by trading their 2016 #1 overall pick Ben Simmons.
  6. The Warriors tanked just two years ago and got James Wiseman with the #2 overall pick.

Whereas the Utah Jazz haven't had a top 4 draft pick since 2011 (when they blew it on Enes Kanter) and in 2005 (Deron Williams - the last guy to take the Jazz to the Western Conference Finals).


I think it is safe to say that Tanking can be an effective long term strategy.







Utah Jazz 2022 Offseason 4 Options: Option 3 - Trade Donovan Mitchell

After losing to the Mavericks in the 1st round of the playoffs, the Utah Jazz must face reality: they are not a Tier 1 team and they are not going to get better with time. They must make a big change.

And they only have four options:

Option 1: Fix their biggest problems while keeping Rudy Gobert & Donovan Mitchell (if possible). READ HERE

Option 2: Trade Rudy Gobert & do a mini-rebuild around Donovan Mitchell. READ HERE

Option 3: Trade Donovan Mitchell for an aging superstar for ~2 year championship window - if possible (this article).

Option 4: Tank next year. READ HERE


Option 3: Trade Donovan Mitchell


Comp: 2018 Toronto Raptors

If the Utah Jazz choose to keep Rudy Gobert and trade Donovan Mitchell, that means their window becomes much smaller. Rudy Gobert is turning 30 this year. If you keep Gobert, trading Donovan Mitchell for draft picks and undeveloped players is unacceptable. This would guarantee wasting the rest of Rudy Gobert's prime.

They have to upgrade their current roster if they are going to keep Gobert. Like the Toronto Raptors trading DeMar DeRozan for 1 year of Kawhi Leonard and helped Kyle Lowry and Marc Gasol win a championship.


If the Jazz want to keep Gobert and trade Mitchell, the Jazz will need to look for a trading partner who is wanting to trade an aging and/or disgruntled superstar for the 25-year-old Donovan Mitchell.


Lets take a look at four aging superstars that might fit the criteria:


1. LeBron James




Stephen A Smith said on his ESPN show First Take last week that he believes the Lakers should considering trading LeBron James. Stephen A believes the Lakers should call the Utah Jazz and offer LeBron for Mitchell (LINK).

And the more I think about it, the more I love it for LeBron James.

First of all, this would only be for 1-2 seasons. LeBron wouldn't even have to sell his Los Angeles house!

Secondly, the Lakers are not going to be legit contenders next season. They dug themselves into a hole when they gambled with Russell Westbrook. Now they are stuck next year. LeBron coming to the Utah Jazz next season would significantly increase LeBron's chances at winning ring #5.

Thirdly, Dwyane Wade is a part-owner of the Utah Jazz. D Wade and LBJ are famously besties. They
would be able to spend a lot of time together during the season trying to win a championship for Utah and banana boating in the Great Salt Lake.

Fourthly, this is a "Low Risk / High Reward" opportunity. It would probably be the least pressure to win that LeBron has had in over a decade. If LeBron gets traded to Utah and falls short of a championship, who cares? It's Utah. But if LeBron comes to Utah and wins a championship, it would be a huge add to the GOAT argument. Utah has never won a championship. And honestly, if he helped the Jazz win a championship, the Jazz would probably retire his jersey number, build a statue of him, and officially declare June 23rd "LeBron James Day" (6/23).

Fifthly, LeBron James would fit perfectly right into the Utah Jazz lineup. Without even making any moves, you are looking at a line up of:

PG: Mike Conley
SG: Danuel House
SF: Bojan Bogdanovic
PF: LeBron James
C: Rudy Gobert
6M: Jordan Clarkson

And with LeBron James on the team, the Jazz should be able to get a good MLE (Bruce Brown?) and a good Vets Min (Otto Porter?). Plus they could trade their 2026 1st rounder for another piece at the trade deadline.

After become a deity in Utah, LeBron would be a Free Agent and could sign right back with the Lakers. Bronny will be of age by that time too. So LeBron Sr. and LeBron Jr. can join Donovan Mitchell, Anthony Davis, and whoever else the Lakers got during the hiatus and LeBron probably wins ring #6 (helloooo Michael Jordan!).


2. Paul George



I heard this one suggested on a YouTube channel called "NoDunks Inc." (LINK)

Paul George, like LeBron James, would seamlessly fit right into the Utah Jazz lineup. He is 32 years old and often injured, but this gives the Jazz exactly what they would be looking for in Donovan Mitchell trade; a two year window of legit title contending with Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley.

Plus, Paul George would get something he's never had: an legit title contending team in which he is the #1 guy (not that there's anything wrong with being Robin to Kawhi Leonard).


3. Jimmy Butler



Jimmy Butler's remaining time with the Heat started to come in to question after we saw THIS heated argument during the game with Erik Spoelstra. Players had to holding both Jimmy Butler and Coach Spoelstra back. They were ready to fight!

If the Heat don't make it out of the East this year, they may be looking to get younger from Jimmy Butler. And Miami has been maybe the most talked team surrounding Donovan Mitchell besides the Knicks.

Butler would also seamlessly fit right into the Jazz veteran lineup. And his work ethic and passion would really benefit this Jazz team.

And in this scenario, I wouldn't be surprised if the Jazz could get back another good player back as well with Butler for Mitchell. If I were Utah, I would ask for Tyler Herro first and see if we can't figure out some kind of Butler/Herro deal. If no, I would ask for Max Strus with Butler.


4. Damian Lillard



The Trailblazers need to take a hard look at themselves in the mirror and decide what they are going to do this offseason. Without Damian Lillard, they are probably the worst team in the entire NBA. They are nowhere near near title contention. Besides soon-to-be-32-years-old Dame Lillard, they only have young, undeveloped players.

Portland needs to get some legit help this offseason to justify keeping Dame Lillard.

If not, for the good of the organization and for the good of Dame himself: TRADE HIM TO A CONTENDER!!!

Jazz fans have always has a soft spot for Damian Lillard - ever since his college days at Utah's Weber State University. Also, Dame dropping random 'love kernels' throughout his career about Utah being one of his favorite places, like this tweet from 2017 when a fan asked Lillard "if you had the opportunity to sign with any team in the league today other than trailblazers what team would it be?" and Dame responded with "If blazers said they didn't want me... Utah Jazz or Lakers."


Dame coming to the Jazz would feel like a player coming home.

And Dame fits the Jazz's window of ~2 years of elite contention.

However, Unlike the other three player mentioned, Lillard doesn't "fit perfectly" into the current linup. Acquiring Lillard would mean the Jazz to also trade their current starting veteran point guard Mike Conley. Maybe to make salaries work, the Blazers would do a Mitchell+Conley for Lillard+Josh Hart deal? If not, the Jazz would look to move Mike in a separate deal with a different team as soon as possible.



Here is a "blow it up" trade getting a huge haul in picks from the Houston Rockets (LINK)


Erik Walden, Utah Jazz writer for the Sale Lake Tribune, proposed "Houston gets to kick-start its rebuild with a bonafide star, while Utah blows it up, adding last year’s No. 2 pick, this year’s No. 3, and a couple of big men with upside besides."

Rockets get: Donovan Mitchell

Jazz get: Jalen Green, Christian Wood, Usman Garuba, No. 3 pick in 2022 draft, Brooklyn’s 2024 first-round pick



Or this crazy 5 team trade













The reasoning: The number 1 team that Donovan Mitchell has been linked to is the New York Knicks. However that has seemed very unlikely given the fact the Knicks don't have what the Utah Jazz want. To make that work, you would have to find a 3rd team that has a high draft pick that is interested in Julius Randle (like the Trailblazers LINK). Then, find a 4th team that is interested in Mike Conley (like the Clippers). And preferably a 5th team for Bogdanovic. The Jazz get 6 first round draft picks between Mitchell, Conley, and Bogdanovic. That's a bit hefty, but it gets Mitchell on the Knicks.



What a successful "Option 3" Offseason might look like:


PG: Mike Conley
SG: Danuel House
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Bojan Bogdanovic
C: Rudy Gobert

BN: Jordan Clarkson
BN: Max Strus
BN: Bruce Brown (MLE)
BN: Otto Porter (FA)
BN: Hassan Whiteside
BN: Royce O'Neale
BN: Juancho Hernangomez
BN: Nickeil Alexander-Walker
BN: Jared Butler



or



PG: Damian Lillard
SG: Danuel House
SF: Josh Hart
PF: Bojan Bogdanovic
C: Rudy Gobert

BN: Jordan Clarkson
BN: Bruce Brown (MLE)
BN: Otto Porter (FA)
BN: Hassan Whiteside
BN: Joe Ingles (FA)
BN: Royce O'Neale
BN: Juancho Hernangomez
BN: Nickeil Alexander-Walker
BN: Jared Butler





Options 1, 2, & 4


If the Utah Jazz can't find a way to improve the team right now around Rudy Gobert by trading Donovan Mitchell, the Option 3 will not work for them.

Click HERE for Option 2 - Trading Rudy Gobert








Utah Jazz 2022 Offseason 4 Options: Option 2 - Trade Rudy Gobert

After losing to the Mavericks in the 1st round of the playoffs, the Utah Jazz must face reality: they are not a Tier 1 team and they are not going to get better with time. They must make a big change.

And they only have four options:

Option 1: Fix their biggest problems while keeping Rudy Gobert & Donovan Mitchell (if possible). READ HERE

Option 2: Trade Rudy Gobert & do a mini-rebuild around Donovan Mitchell (this article).

Option 3: Trade Donovan Mitchell for an aging superstar for ~2 year championship window (if possible). READ HERE

Option 4: Tank next year. READ HERE


Option 2: "Mini Rebuild" Trade Rudy Gobert.


Comp: 2004 Los Angeles Lakers.



In 2003, the Lakers lost in the 2nd round of the playoffs. In 2004, although they made it to the finals, they got crushed by the Pistons. Kobe Bryant had a particularly horrible series; shooting 17% from three. After two disappointing playoffs in a row, an aging roster, and two All-Stars that didn't get along, the Lakers chose to trade 31-year-old center Shaquille O'Neal for younger players and picks; including 24-year-old Lamar Odom. Veterans Derrick Fisher, Rick Fox, Karl Malone, Gary Payton, and Bryon Russell also left the team one way or another. The Lakers chose to rebuild a new foundation with 26-year-old Kobe Bryant.



In 2021, the Jazz lost in the 2nd round of the playoffs. In 2022, they got crushed by the Mavericks. Donovan Mitchell was not great in that series; shooting 21% from three. After two disappointing playoffs in a row, an aging roster, and two All-Stars that don't seem to get along, what will the Jazz do? Will the Utah Jazz trade their 30-year-old center Rudy Gobert for younger players and picks? Will the Jazz choose rebuild a new foundation with 26-year-old Donovan Mitchell?

Back to the Lakers. Remember, this can be a long process. Remember, after trading Shaq, Kobe Byrant went on to miss the playoffs for the first time in his career in 2005. And then lost in the first round two years in a row in 2006 & 2007. It was not until the 4th season after the Shaq trade did Kobe win a playoff series. And Kobe was very frustrated during those first 3 seasons without Shaq. However, staying through the mini rebuild ended up in the Lakers making three straight finals and winning two of them between 2008-2010.

Does Donovan Mitchell have enough Kobe Bryant mentality get through a tough 1-3 year rebuild?

There is no Rudy Gobert trade out there that won't make the Jazz worse next season. There is no current
value straight up for Gobert. If the Jazz trade Gobert, it will be for undeveloped players & 1st round draft picks. The Jazz would be taking a (good?) step back going into next season.

You aren't getting equal current value for equal current value. That's how trades are in the NBA. A win-now team trades their youth/picks to non win-now teams for win-now players. You never see two equally talented All-Stars get traded for each other.

Sometimes to raise your ceiling, you have to take a step back in order to take two steps forward. Build a new foundation.

Here are 12 possible trade partners and their respective potential trade package that I've seen on various sights including Bleacher Report, the Athletic, Sports Illustrated, Yahoo Sports, etc.
  1. Atlanta Hawks (all over the place)
    • Some combination of Capella, Collins, Hunger, Okongwu, first rounders, and second rounders (LINK), (LINK), (The Athletic LINK)
  2. Boston Celtics (Sports Illustrated)
    • Something around Jaylen Brown (LINK).
  3. Brooklyn Nets (Bleacher Report and Yahoo)
    • Ben Simmons + 2 first rounders (LINK) & (LINK)
  4. Charlotte Hornets (The Athletic)
    • Something like Hayward+Washington+3 or 4 first rounders+take Rudy Gay's contract in "a James Harden-type package for Gobert" (LINK) & (LINK)
  5. Chicago Bulls (Yahoo Sports)
    • Something like Vucevic+Patrick Williams+2 first rounders (LINK)
  6. Golden State Warriors (Bleacher Report)
    • Something like Wiggins+Wiseman+Moody or Kuminga+future draft compensation (LINK), (LINK) and (LINK Bleacher Report)
  7. Memphis Grizzlies (several places)
    • Something like Adams+Brooks+2 first rounders.
    • Adams+Melton+Tillman+Konchar+maybe Ziaire Williams+up to 3 1st rounders (The Athletic LINK)
  8. New York Knicks
    •  Rumored to be "extremely interested" in Gobert (LINK) and are "willing to include Julius Randle and Multiple 1st-round picks in exchange for an all-star" (LINK).
    • Or, something like Fournier+Reddish+Noel+11st overall pick+2 future first rounders (The Athletic LINK)
  9. Portland Trailblazers (Yahoo Sports & Bleacher Report)
    • Something like Bledsoe+Anfernee Simons+1 first rounder (LINK)
    • Or something like Bledsoe+Keon Johnson+Justise Winslow+2 first rounders+1 2nd rounder (LINK)
  10. Sacramento Kings
    • Something around the 4th overall pick (LINK).
  11. Toronto Raptors (several places)
    • Something like OG Anunoby+Gary Trent Jr+Draft Compensation (Bleacher Report LINK) & (Bleacher Report LINK)
  12. Washington Wizards (Yahoo Sports)
    • Something like Kristaps+Deni Avdija+2 first rounders (LINK)

It is rumored the Brooklyn Nets are interested in trading Ben Simmons + draft compensation for Rudy Gobert, (For example, Bleacher Reports' Zach Buckley identified 'Every NBA Team's Dream Offseason Trade Target' and for the Nets it was Rudy Gobert)(LINK). But, if the Utah Jazz aren't interested in Ben Simmons nor if Ben Simmons isn't interested in Utah, maybe a 3 team deal makes sense here. "League executives reportedly believe the (Sacramento) Kings will trade the No. 4 pick for a win-now veteran"(LINK). They might be interested in Rudy Gobert straight up. However, I am not sure if Gobert would be a great fit with newly acquired Domantas Sabonis. What the Kings really need someone that can guard bigger wings/forwards - aka the players too big for Davion Mitchell to guard. Ben Simmons is exactly that and more. The Kings tried hard to get Simmons at the trade deadline. They could be interested again.
  1. The three way trade between Brooklyn Nets, Sacramento Kings, & Utah Jazz:
    • Kings receive Ben Simmons
    • Nets receive Rudy Gobert
    • Jazz receive #4 overall, #23 overall, and two future first rounders. Match salaries however the Kings want. (showing Gobert for Ben Simmons+2 first rounders).
  2. Another potential 3rd team that might be interested in Ben Simmons is the Indiana Pacers. Maybe something like:
    • Pacers receive Ben Simmons
    • Nets receive Rudy Gobert
    • Jazz receive something like Brogdon+Turner+2 first rounders (LINK showing Gobert for Ben Simmons+2 first rounders) & (LINK showing Simmons trades involving Brogdon and Turner and draft picks)

If the Jazz go this route, I would also expect them to also trade their other veterans to. Here are some trades I've seen on other sights.
  1. Mike Conley to the Clippers (Bleacher Report) (LINK)
    • Jazz receive Brandon Boston Jr., Terance Mann, and Marcus Morris Sr. (Jazz would likely look to move Morris later on as well.)
  2. Mike Conley to the Wizards (NBC Sports LINK)
    • Jazz receive Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Gary Payton II, & 2 second round picks (LINK)
  3. Jordan Clarkson to the Lakers (LINK)
    • Jazz receive Laker's 2027 1st round draft pick, Talen Horton-Tucker, and Mac McClung.
  4. Bojan Bogdanovic to the Mavericks (LINK)
    • Jazz receive Finney-Smith, Josh Green, and Marquese Chris
    • or Jazz receive Davis Bertans, and 2025 First-Round Pick
  5. Bojan Bogdanovic to the Grizzlies
    • Jazz received Steven Adams and the #16 pick this year.

What a successful "Option 2" Offseason might look like:


Added: 4+ future 1st round picks & several 2nd rounders
PG Malcolm Brogdon
SG Donovan Mitchell
SF Marcus Morris (Looking to flip to a contender by the trade deadline)
PF Davis Betrans (Looking to flip to a contender by the trade deadline)
C Myles Turner

BN Royce O'Neale (Looking to flip to a contender by the trade deadline)
BN Talen Horton-Tucker
BN Brandon Boston
BN Terrance Mann
BN Eric Paschall
BN Udoka Azunuike
BN Jared Butler
BN Nickeil Anlexander-Walker
BN Trent Forrest


or


Added: #4 overall, #16 overall, #23 overall, 2-3 more future 1st rounders
PG Trent Forrest / Jared Butler
SG Donovan Mitchell
SF Marcus Morris
PF Harrison Barnes
C Steven Adams

BN Richaun Holmes
BN Royce O'Neale
BN Talen Horton-Tucker
BN Brandon Boston
BN Terrance Mann
BN Eric Paschall
BN Udoka Azunuike
BN Nickeil Anlexander-Walker




Options 1, 2, & 4


If the Jazz don't want to do a mini-rebuild around Donovan Mitchell, here are the other three options:







Monday, May 9, 2022

Utah Jazz 2022 Offseason 4 Options: Option 1 - Return Gobert & Mitchell

In the 2020-2021 NBA season, the Utah Jazz got the #1 overall seed in the NBA going into the playoffs. In the playoffs, they beat the Memphis Grizzlies 4-1 in the first around and were up 2-0 in the 2nd round against the Los Angeles Clippers. And then, Donovan Mitchell aggravated an injury. He played through it, but was obviously diminished. Mike Conley was also injured - missing every game that series besides that game 6. After going up 2-0, the Jazz lost 4 straight games, falling to the Clippers. Donovan Mitchell would later say "I feel like if we were healthy... we get to the Finals."(LINK)


Going into the 2021-2022 season, the Utah Jazz had very high expectations. Hoping to build off of last year success, they were expecting to be to title contenders. Needless to say, losing in the 1st round of the 2022 playoffs was a disappointment. And this time, the Jazz couldn't blame injuries. They were completely healthy. In fact, it was the Mavericks who were without their best player Luka Doncic for the first three games. And the Jazz could not capitalize.

This time, running it back is not an option.

The Jazz need to make a major change.

Here are their 4 options for the 2022 offseason (and their "comps"):
  1. Build around Rudy Gobert & Donovan Mitchell (if possible).
    • Comp: 2020 Milwaukee Bucks
  2. Trade Rudy Gobert, break down the foundation of your team, and rebuild around Donovan Mitchell (if Mitchell is willing to do a mini rebuild). (LINK)
    • Comp: 2004 Los Angeles Lakers
  3. Trade Donovan Mitchell for a ~2 year championship window (if possible). (LINK)
    • Comp: 2018 Toronto Raptors
  4. See somebody you like in the 2023 NBA draft, tank to get them, and bribe the commissioner to make sure you get the #1 overall draft pick. (LINK)
    • Comp: 2002-03 Cavaliers & 1996-97 San Antonio Spurs


Option 1: Build around Rudy Gobert & Donovan Mitchell (if possible).


"The goal should be to build around these two players (Gobert & Mitchell) not to split them up. Now here’s the problem: what on this Utah team has value outside of your two core guys?" -Bobby Marks (LINK)


If the Jazz want to be contenders next year while also keeping Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, they have to address two big problems; they need to upgrade in talent, and they need to address their locker room / player leadership problems.

David Locke, Radio voice of Utah Jazz and creator of Locked on Podcast Network, dedicated one week's worth of podcasts (May 2nd - May 6th) talking about reasons why the Jazz fell short of expectations this year. In the first episode (HERE), Locke's argument is that the Jazz just aren't that good of a team and that the prior season was an outlier. In his third episode (HERE), Locke talked about the "lack of leadership and camaraderie."

Both an upgrade in talent and/or fit (particularly looking for a borderline-elite 3&D forward) AND leadership and camaraderie must be addressed this offseason if Jazz want to be an elite team while keeping Gobert and Mitchell.

Upgrade Talent and/or fit (particularly looking for a starting 6'8+ forward and a starting 6'4+ guard replacement for Conley)


What 6'8+ forwards could be available to the Utah Jazz?
  1. It sounds like the Clippers want to move on from turning-33-this-year Marcus Morris's 2 year $33.5 mil remaining contract (Would Marcus Morris even be willing to play for a small market team like the Utah Jazz? What if the Jazz are willing to also sign twin brother Markieff Morris?) There are reports that the Clippers would be interested in trading Morris plus other stuff for Mike Conley. HERE is a bleacher report trade idea of the Jazz trading Mike Conley for Marcus Morris, Brandon Boston Jr., Terance Mann.
  2. The Pistons will likely be looking get something for Jerami Grant's expiring contract. Can the Jazz put together the best offer?
  3. Will the Kings be listening to offers for Harrison Barnes' expiring contract?
  4. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley as their starting bigs, and Lauri Markkanen having a great year last year, that leaves Kevin Love with a continually dimension role with this Cavaliers teams. Many believe the Cavs will be looking to trade Love's $29M expiring contract. And there are reports that the Cavs are interested in Mike Conley (LINK)
  5. The Clippers have been trying to move Tobias Harris for a while now. Would they be interested in a trade centered around Mike Conley for Harris?
What 6'4+ guards could be available to the Utah Jazz?
  1. "Sources say that the Pacers have also left numerous rival teams with the impression that they will be trying to move Malcolm Brogdon this offseason..." - Marc Stein (LINK). If the Jazz were to move Mike Conley (which I believe they should), Malcolm Brogdon would theoretically be a great backcourt partner with Donovan Mitchell because he is a good shooter, is tall/lengthy for his position, and can be a secondary ball handler. HERE is a trade proposal from nbaanalysis.net including Mike Conley + Utah's 2026 1st rounder for Brogdon. Or would the Pacers be more interest in something like Royce+NAW+Gay and that 1st round pick for Brogdon?
  2. According to Bobby Marks, "The free-agent class of two-way wings is weak, and [Victor] Oladipo should see offers starting at the $6.4 million tax midlevel and up to the $10.3 million full midlevel" (LINK).

Lack of Leadership.


Summarizing David Locke here: a leadership void was created when Ricky Rubio wasn't resigned in 2019. That Jazz essentially replaced Rubio with Mike Conley, who is a great locker room guy but he is not a leader. Can the Jazz bring in a veteran that also a strong leader?(LINK)

During his stink with the Cavs, Rubio was coming off the bench. Rubio was having some early success that season, until he tore his left ACL in late December. Rubio is turning 32 this year and is coming off that ACL tear. What will his demand be, if any? Could the Utah Jazz sign Ricky Rubio with the MLE? Or even a veterans minimum? Could they do a sign-and-trade with the Pacers? Would Ricky Rubio be willing to come off the bench for the Jazz like he did for the Cavaliers last year?

To me, if I'm Ricky Rubio, the Utah Jazz seems like a perfect fit. It's a team that should be able to get a top 6 seed without Ricky, but will need his leadership and basketball skills in the playoffs.

Having Rubio back in the locker room would help immensely with the lack of leadership, and could potentially be enough to fix the next problem as well (camaraderie).

Lack of Camaraderie.




Summarizing David Locke again, the Jazz used to love being in the gym together. Practices and such were fun for them. This season, that wasn't quite the case. Locke says he doesn't see animosity between the players (like some other media have suggested), but the joy was definitely diminished. Locke attributes a large part of that to departures of Derrick Favors and Georges Niang last offseason. Derrick Favors loved being in Utah and was happy to sacrifice for the team. That went a long way with the other players. It was hard to complain about your situation when Derrick Favors is sacrificing more than you and being happy about it. From what I have heard, Favors didn't complain about minutes, touches, usage, etc.. He did what he was asked with a smile. And Georges Niang, according to Locke, was everyone's favorite person. He was just fun to be around. Losing those two players hurt the Utah locker room (LINK).

From what I know about Harrison Barnes and Ricky Rubio, they are both guys that are willing to sacrifice to win. Apparently a GM said about Harrison Barnes: "He can be your third best player if you need him to be. If you need him to be your sixth best player, he can be that too. No ego. Just wants to play and win" (LINK). Getting a guy like that on your team will do wonders for your locker room.

Six more players I want to mention:



As I mentioned early, Marcus Morris is exactly the type of player help get the Jazz over the hump. But is he willing to play in a small market like Utah? What if the Utah Jazz also sign free agent / twin brother Markieff Morris? Would the Morris Twins have a strong desire to play together again before their careers are over? Perhaps if the Jazz were willing to offer that to them, they would be willing to play there? And it's not just motivation for Marcus. Markieff skillset would also add to the Jazz roster. They really need 6'8 guys that aren't afraid play some defense and stick up for their teammates. A huge win for all parties involved.

Joe Ingles had played all 8 of his seasons with the Utah Jazz and is a fan favorite. He tore his left ACL in late January and was out of the season. Desperate to salvage their season, the Jazz traded Joe Ingles at the trade deadline. As a player, Joe Ingles is not what he used to be. Joe came into the NBA at age 27. And, until last year, shot an average of 41.4% from three and was a decent defender. Last year, his 3P% dropped all the way down to 34.7% for the season before the injury and just wasn't the same. Ingles will be turning 35 this year. As a player, at this point in his career, Joe is probably at best a serviceable bench player. But with what he also brings to the Jazz locker room, the Jazz should 100% offer him the veterans minimum to come back to Utah. Hopefully the Jazz can get Ingles back and ease him into less and less minutes as he gets older like Udonis Haslem has done with the Miami Heat.

According to sources, the 76ers are "willing to include Matisse Thybulle in any trade that includes Tobais Harris" (LINK).  It is not a secret the 76ers have been looking to move Tobias Harris's contract for a while now. And both Thybulle and Georges Niang struggled to get any significant playing time in the playoffs. I could see the Jazz doing something like Clarkson/Conley/Gay for Harris/Thybulle/Niang. From the Jazz perspective, it might not necessarily be an upgrade in talent, but it is arguably an upgrade in fit. It address 1) small backcourt problem 2) defense / forced turnovers, and 3) camaraderie. Having Tobias in the starting lineup instead of Conley makes the Jazz bigger. Thybulle off the bench brings defense / forced turnovers. And Niang was awesome for the locker room while with the Jazz.

Some 76ers fans I've talk to love this trade straight up for the 76ers, like the idea of adding Clarkson/Conley/Gay. Others I've talked to believe that will leave their team with too many point guards and not enough wings/forwards. So maybe a 3 team deal would make more sense with a team that is interested in Mike Conley (The Cavs trade LeVert? The Clippers trade Marcus Morris + someone like Kennard?). For the Jazz, this trade feels like a "last resort" type trade to me - addressing the major weaknesses but not necessary upgrading talent.

The Jazz will also need to address their backup center position with Hassan Whiteside's contract ending, and I am not sure if Hassan will want to resign with the Jazz at the vets min or not. Meanwhile, notorious locker room favorite Boban Marjanovic completely fell out of the rotation in Dallas this season. I'm sure the Mavs would willing to listen to trade proposals for Boban's expiring contract with $3.5 mil left his year since they are not playing him anyway. Boban could be a serviceable backup center for Gobert, and would also help with camaraderie. And, side note, if the Jazz end up trading for Tobias Harris, wouldn't it be awesome to reunite Tobi & Bobi?! 



Final Thoughts: All or Nothing


My theory is that the Utah Jazz are currently a Tier 2 team that performs like a Tier 3 team due to lack of leadership & camaraderie. Ricky Rubio off the bench would do wonders for the lack of leadership / camaraderie, and acquiring a player like Harrison Barnes and maybe Brogdon and/or Marcus Morris could be the piece they need become a Tier 1 team.

As a final note, this "Option 1" should not be only partial done or it won't work.

The Jazz need to address both problems in the offseason, or else they need to trade Gobert and/or Mitchell. Just acquiring a borderline-elite 3&D player isn't enough. Just addressing their lack of leadership and camaraderie isn't enough. If they want go into next season with both Gobert and Mitchell, they must address both of these weaknesses this offseason.

For example, if the Jazz address their lack of leadership and camaraderie, but fail to upgrade the talent at the wing position, they will still not be good enough to be legit contenders. Let's say they sign Rubio, Ingles, and trade for Boban. But that's it. That would for sure help with the lack of leadership and camaraderie, but still leaves the Jazz not talented enough at the wing position to win a championship.

On the flip side, if the only thing they do is trade for someone like Jerami Grant or Marcus Morris, but fail to address the lack of leadership and camaraderie, that is a recipe for disaster. That lack of leadership and lack of camaraderie needs to also be address if the Jazz want to keep Gobert and Mitchell together for another season.


What a successful "Option 1" Offseason might look like:


Cavs trade
PG Donovan Mitchell / Ricky Rubio / Trent Forrest
SG Victor Oladipo / Jordan Clarkson
SF Bojan Bogdanovic / Danuel House
PF Kevin Love / Royce O'Neale / Joe Ingles
C Rudy Gobert / Udoka Azubiuke

76ers & Pacers trade
PG Malcolm Brogdon / Ricky Rubio / Jared Butler
SG Donovan Mitchell / Matisse Thybulle
SF Bojan Bogdanovic / Danuel House
PF Tobias Harris / Georges Niang / Joe Ingles
C Rudy Gobert / Boban Marjanovic






Clippers Trade
PG Donovan Mitchell / Ricky Rubio / Jared Butler
SG Terrance Mann / Jordan Clarkson /
SF Bojan Bogdanovic / Brandon Boston / Royce O'Neal
PF Marcus Morris / Markieff Morris / Joe Ingles
C Rudy Gobert / Udoka Azubiuke






Pistons & Wizards Trade
PG Donovan Mitchell / Gary Payton II / Trent Forrest
SG Kentavious Caldwall-Pope / Jordan Clarkson
SF Jerami Grant / Danuel House / Joe Ingles
PF Bojan Bogdanovic / Juancho Hernangomez / Eric Paschall
C Rudy Gobert / Udoka Azubiuke






Options 2, 3, & 4


If the Utah Jazz can't upgrade their roster and/or fit AND address their lack of leadership and camaraderie, they cannot get good enough around Gobert and Mitchell, and thus they will need to trade one of them.

Click HERE for Option 2 - Trading Rudy Gobert







Monday, January 24, 2022

Why the 76ers & Kings should call the Utah Jazz to get the Ben Simmons trade done.

The Recent Daryl Morey Interview

Daryl Morey just gave some great insight on what he is looking for in a Ben Simmons deal.

Here are a few highlights:

  • "Everyone sees what's happening with Joel and how special that is... We have got to do whatever we can to help him.
  • “It’s precisely because Joel is playing so amazing that this deal [the Ben trade] has to be the one.”
  • Morey point out some specific things he is looking to improve, including defense, rebounding, playmaking, and transition game. But then followed that up with "We have, actually, a lot of things we need to improve.""
  • “If you trade one of these great players (Ben Simmons) for multiple players, it does not change your championship odds enough to make a difference. For Joel, we have to make sure we get this right and that we move ourselves into a higher tier of ability to win the championship."
  • Morey says they have lowered their asking price for Simmons because of how great Joel Embiid has been playing. “Because Joel’s playing amazing… now we might be able to do it with a top-40 player who’s a great fit."
  • “I think it’s less likely than likely (that Ben Simmons is moved by the trade deadline), but hopefully I’m wrong. It won’t be from lack of trying.”

To sum all that up: Daryl Morey is very motivated to get a deal done but will not settle for anything outside of a current top 40 player that fits with Joel Embiid.

Why the Kings need to do this trade BEFORE the Trade Deadline


Ben Simmons reportedly "would have no problem going to Sacramento" and was even reported as having them as one of the few teams he actually wants to play for.


The Kings haven't made the playoffs in 15 years; but now a superstar has them on his small list of teams he wants to get traded to? Don't mess this up Sacramento!

Not only that, but De'Aaron Fox and Ben Simmons compliment each other very well. They fit!

The Kings have a chance to get a generational player on their team who is 1) just entering his prime, 2) actually wants to play for them, and 3) fits perfect with other franchise player. The Kings simply cannot miss on this opportunity.

Right now is the time to get a deal done; because other destinations don't have good offers right now. The Kings are the best suitors by far for the 76ers. But if they wait, they could lose that status and get outbid in the offseason.

For example, right now, the Warriors are not interested in breaking up their team to trade for Ben Simmons. However, they might be interested in trading for Ben Simmons in the offseason and could potentially outbid the Kings. Right now, the Lakers don't have a good enough packet that the 76ers would accept, but maybe that changes in the offseason as well. And who know what other suitors will come up in the offseason. Maybe the Celtics? Who knows?

The Kings simply can't risk letting other teams get back into the Ben Simmons discussion by waiting until the offseason.

The 76ers are motivated to make a deal now, and the Kings are the only legit suitors and should be willing to do what it takes to make it happen before the trade deadline.

The Rumored Rejected Kings Trade




I think there are a lot of reasons why the 76ers are not interested in that trade. First of all, none of those players fit the criteria of "a top-40 player who’s a great fit." In fact, this might be the exact trade Daryl Morey has thinking of when he said “If you trade one of these great players for multiple players, it does not change your championship odds enough to make a difference." Haliburton maybe have top 40 potential down the road, but not right now. He is only 21. By the time he is in his prime, Joel Embiid will be out of his prime and it will be too late. Second of all, I don't think the 76ers are interest in moving Thybulle.


This trade package just doesn't work for the win-now 76ers.

This is where the Utah Jazz come in




"A top-40 player who's a great fit" screams Mike Conley to me.

Conley made the All Star game last year, and has been a fringe All Star his entire career. He led a Grizzlies team for years with center Marc Gasol. Now he is doing it with Rudy Gobert. Just imagine what we could do with MVP talent Joel Embiid!

Conley and Embiid are not just a "great fit;" they're perfect for each other.

The Kings trade missing a top 40 player, but adding Mike Conley would change that. Also, the original trade does not address all of the needs Daryl Morey specifically listed. One of the things he said he wanted was playmaking. Mike Conley is an elite playmaker.

As a side bonus - the 76ers are rumored to want to get off of Tobias Harris's contract when moving Ben Simmons. 99% of the league would not want to take Tobias Harris, but I think the Jazz might be the one team that would be willing to take on that contact.

What are the Jazz getting out of this?


The answer: Tyrese Haliburton.

I do not believe the Jazz are actively looking to make a major trade before the trade deadline. They are fringe contenders right now and they are perfectly content going into the playoffs with their current roster. However, they would not be favored against the Warriors or the Suns in a playoff series. So I guess I would call it a "punchers chance."

Size has been a problem for the Jazz the last few seasons. Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell are both 6'1. It is hard to win in today's NBA with two player that short in a starting rotation. If the Jazz had the chance secure a young, talented combo guard to pair with Donovan Mitchell for the future, they would have to at least consider it.

Haliburton is 21 years old and is listed at 6'5. His career 3P% is currently at 42%. I think Hali could be the perfect backcourt player to pair with Donovan Mitchell for the foreseeable future. Maybe for Donovan's entire career!

Besides size, age is about to become a big problem for Utah. The Jazz are decent contenders right now, but their window is closing. Mike Conley and Joe Ingles are 34. Rudy Gay is 35. Bojan Bogdanovic and Hassan Whiteside are 32. And Rudy Gobert and Jordan Clarkson are both 29. Donovan Mitchell is just entering his prime, but all of his teammates are on the tail end. In three years, Donovan could be looking around at a pretty bare supporting cast.

So I say again, if the Jazz are given the opportunity get younger with a high potential 21 year old, perfect backcourt player with Donovan, while at the same time also still being able to contend in the playoffs this year, I think the Jazz would have to seriously consider that. In fact, I think they would have to take it.

And, even though Tobias Harris has one of the most contracts in the league, the Jazz could actually use him. Tobias would probably even start over the undersized Royce O'Neale. A starting lineup of Haliburton, Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic, Tobias Harris, and Rudy Gobert isn't even that far off of their current starting lineup of Conley, Mitchell, Royce, Bognaovic, and Gobert.

Also, that horrible Tobais contract actually lines up quite nicely with Haliburton's rookie contract. So when it is time to pay Haliburton the big bucks in two and a half years from now, Tobias's will finally be an unrestricted free agent.

The Trade


Philadelphia 76ers receive:
  • Mike Conley
  • Harrison Barnes
  • Buddy Hield
  • Rudy Gay, Joe Ingles, or Jordan Clarkson.

Sacramento Kings receive:
  • Ben Simmons
  • An expiring contract (probably either Joe Ingles or Danny Green).

Utah Jazz receives:
  • Tyrese Haliburton
  • Tobias Harris


Specific Trade Scenarios

Trade Scenario 1


The 76ers get their top 40 player that is a perfect fit with Joel Embiid in Mike Conley. Daryl Morey checks all those other boxes, too, getting help with defense, rebounding, playmaking, transition game, etc. with Conley, Barnes, Hield, and Gay.

The Kings get their superstar Ben Simmons and they only have to trade the three players they were already willing to trade. Plus they don't have to take on Tobias Harris's contract and they don't have to give up those two 1st round draft picks either.

The Jazz get taller, younger, and the high potential 21 year old Haliburton.



Trade Scenario 2

In Scenario 2, I have the 76ers getting reining 6MOY Jordan Clarkson instead of Rudy Gay, and the Kings taking Danny Green's expiring contract instead of Joe Ingles. Everything else is the same.

Talent wise, I don't quite like this variation as much for the 76ers. I think Rudy Gay makes more sense than Clarkson. Philly would already have plenty of guards (Conley, Hield, Curry, Maxey, and Thybulle). Plus they would now be losing forward Danny Green in this scenario as well. That would put a lot of pressure on Harrison Barnes and Georges Niang at the 4 position, whereas Scenario 1 would include both Rudy Gay and Danny Green to the 4 mix. But an argument can be made that the 76ers need a shot creator / bucket getter like Clarkson off the bench. And maybe they just like JC more than Gay. Plus, with this trade variation, now would be are trading 3 players for 4 instead of 2 for 4; so there in now only one roster spot they need to free up instead of 2.

It's pretty much exactly the same for the Kings. They still get their guy Ben Simmons and an expiring contract.

From the Jazz perspective, it's about a wash. They keep more size but get less younger. I would probably rather have Gay and Ingles this year if I am the Jazz. They need size, so trading two guards for one guard and one forward could actually work very well for Utah. Plus keeping Joe Ingles and Rudy Gay adds versatility, playmaking, and shooting. However, they would miss JC's offense off the bench. And in the scenario they are trading away a 29 year old player instead of the two 34+ year old players, so going forward after this, scenario 1 might be better.

Conclusion


I think the 76ers would for sure do this deal especially Trade Scenario 1. They would be getting everything Daryl Morey wants for Ben Simmons and more, plus they would be getting rid of the Tobias Harris contract.

I think the Kings would do it too. I do not think the Kings can afford to let Ben Simmons stay on the 76ers this year and then potentially lose out on him to a different team in the offseason. The Kings are only giving up the 3 players they already were rumored to be willing to give up. And now they don't have to give away any picks.

And I think the Jazz would do it. They would have the chance to give Donovan Mitchell perhaps the perfect backcourt partner in Tyrese Haliburton for the foreseeable future; maybe even play their entire primes together like Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Tobias and Haliburton address two of the Jazz's biggest weaknesses: size and age. The Jazz future would be much brighter, without damaging their current playoffs contention status too much. And although the Tobias contract is horrible, pairing it with Haliburton's rookie contract makes it not-as-bad.