Utah Jazz 2022 Offseason 4 Options: Option 1 - Return Gobert & Mitchell

In the 2020-2021 NBA season, the Utah Jazz got the #1 overall seed in the NBA going into the playoffs. In the playoffs, they beat the Memphis Grizzlies 4-1 in the first around and were up 2-0 in the 2nd round against the Los Angeles Clippers. And then, Donovan Mitchell aggravated an injury. He played through it, but was obviously diminished. Mike Conley was also injured - missing every game that series besides that game 6. After going up 2-0, the Jazz lost 4 straight games, falling to the Clippers. Donovan Mitchell would later say "I feel like if we were healthy... we get to the Finals."(LINK)

Going into the 2021-2022 season, the Utah Jazz had very high expectations. Hoping to build off of last year success, they were expecting to be to title contenders. Needless to say, losing in the 1st round of the 2022 playoffs was a disappointment. And this time, the Jazz couldn't blame injuries. They were completely healthy. In fact, it was the Mavericks who were without their best player Luka Doncic for the first three games. And the Jazz could not capitalize.

This time, running it back is not an option.

The Jazz need to make a major change.

Here are their 4 options for the 2022 offseason (and their "comps"):

1. Build around Rudy Gobert & Donovan Mitchell (if possible).
• Comp: 2020 Milwaukee Bucks
2. Trade Rudy Gobert, break down the foundation of your team, and rebuild around Donovan Mitchell (if Mitchell is willing to do a mini rebuild). (LINK)
• Comp: 2004 Los Angeles Lakers
3. Trade Donovan Mitchell for a ~2 year championship window (if possible). (LINK)
• Comp: 2018 Toronto Raptors
4. See somebody you like in the 2023 NBA draft, tank to get them, and bribe the commissioner to make sure you get the #1 overall draft pick. (LINK)
• Comp: 2002-03 Cavaliers & 1996-97 San Antonio Spurs

Option 1: Build around Rudy Gobert & Donovan Mitchell (if possible).

"The goal should be to build around these two players (Gobert & Mitchell) not to split them up. Now here’s the problem: what on this Utah team has value outside of your two core guys?" -Bobby Marks (LINK)

If the Jazz want to be contenders next year while also keeping Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, they have to address two big problems; they need to upgrade in talent, and they need to address their locker room / player leadership problems.

David Locke, Radio voice of Utah Jazz and creator of Locked on Podcast Network, dedicated one week's worth of podcasts (May 2nd - May 6th) talking about reasons why the Jazz fell short of expectations this year. In the first episode (HERE), Locke's argument is that the Jazz just aren't that good of a team and that the prior season was an outlier. In his third episode (HERE), Locke talked about the "lack of leadership and camaraderie."

Both an upgrade in talent and/or fit (particularly looking for a borderline-elite 3&D forward) AND leadership and camaraderie must be addressed this offseason if Jazz want to be an elite team while keeping Gobert and Mitchell.

Upgrade Talent and/or fit (particularly looking for a starting 6'8+ forward and a starting 6'4+ guard replacement for Conley)

What 6'8+ forwards could be available to the Utah Jazz?

1. It sounds like the Clippers want to move on from turning-33-this-year Marcus Morris's 2 year $33.5 mil remaining contract (Would Marcus Morris even be willing to play for a small market team like the Utah Jazz? What if the Jazz are willing to also sign twin brother Markieff Morris?) There are reports that the Clippers would be interested in trading Morris plus other stuff for Mike Conley. HERE is a bleacher report trade idea of the Jazz trading Mike Conley for Marcus Morris, Brandon Boston Jr., Terance Mann.
2. The Pistons will likely be looking get something for Jerami Grant's expiring contract. Can the Jazz put together the best offer?
3. Will the Kings be listening to offers for Harrison Barnes' expiring contract?
4. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley as their starting bigs, and Lauri Markkanen having a great year last year, that leaves Kevin Love with a continually dimension role with this Cavaliers teams. Many believe the Cavs will be looking to trade Love's $29M expiring contract. And there are reports that the Cavs are interested in Mike Conley (LINK)
5. The Clippers have been trying to move Tobias Harris for a while now. Would they be interested in a trade centered around Mike Conley for Harris?

What 6'4+ guards could be available to the Utah Jazz?

1. "Sources say that the Pacers have also left numerous rival teams with the impression that they will be trying to move Malcolm Brogdon this offseason..." - Marc Stein (LINK). If the Jazz were to move Mike Conley (which I believe they should), Malcolm Brogdon would theoretically be a great backcourt partner with Donovan Mitchell because he is a good shooter, is tall/lengthy for his position, and can be a secondary ball handler. HERE is a trade proposal from nbaanalysis.net including Mike Conley + Utah's 2026 1st rounder for Brogdon. Or would the Pacers be more interest in something like Royce+NAW+Gay and that 1st round pick for Brogdon?
2. According to Bobby Marks, "The free-agent class of two-way wings is weak, and [Victor] Oladipo should see offers starting at the $6.4 million tax midlevel and up to the $10.3 million full midlevel" (LINK).

   

Lack of Leadership.

Summarizing David Locke here: a leadership void was created when Ricky Rubio wasn't resigned in 2019. That Jazz essentially replaced Rubio with Mike Conley, who is a great locker room guy but he is not a leader. Can the Jazz bring in a veteran that also a strong leader?(LINK)

During his stink with the Cavs, Rubio was coming off the bench. Rubio was having some early success that season, until he tore his left ACL in late December. Rubio is turning 32 this year and is coming off that ACL tear. What will his demand be, if any? Could the Utah Jazz sign Ricky Rubio with the MLE? Or even a veterans minimum? Could they do a sign-and-trade with the Pacers? Would Ricky Rubio be willing to come off the bench for the Jazz like he did for the Cavaliers last year?

To me, if I'm Ricky Rubio, the Utah Jazz seems like a perfect fit. It's a team that should be able to get a top 6 seed without Ricky, but will need his leadership and basketball skills in the playoffs.

Having Rubio back in the locker room would help immensely with the lack of leadership, and could potentially be enough to fix the next problem as well (camaraderie).

Lack of Camaraderie.

Summarizing David Locke again, the Jazz used to love being in the gym together. Practices and such were fun for them. This season, that wasn't quite the case. Locke says he doesn't see animosity between the players (like some other media have suggested), but the joy was definitely diminished. Locke attributes a large part of that to departures of Derrick Favors and Georges Niang last offseason. Derrick Favors loved being in Utah and was happy to sacrifice for the team. That went a long way with the other players. It was hard to complain about your situation when Derrick Favors is sacrificing more than you and being happy about it. From what I have heard, Favors didn't complain about minutes, touches, usage, etc.. He did what he was asked with a smile. And Georges Niang, according to Locke, was everyone's favorite person. He was just fun to be around. Losing those two players hurt the Utah locker room (LINK).

From what I know about Harrison Barnes and Ricky Rubio, they are both guys that are willing to sacrifice to win. Apparently a GM said about Harrison Barnes: "He can be your third best player if you need him to be. If you need him to be your sixth best player, he can be that too. No ego. Just wants to play and win" (LINK). Getting a guy like that on your team will do wonders for your locker room.

Six more players I want to mention:

As I mentioned early, Marcus Morris is exactly the type of player help get the Jazz over the hump. But is he willing to play in a small market like Utah? What if the Utah Jazz also sign free agent / twin brother Markieff Morris? Would the Morris Twins have a strong desire to play together again before their careers are over? Perhaps if the Jazz were willing to offer that to them, they would be willing to play there? And it's not just motivation for Marcus. Markieff skillset would also add to the Jazz roster. They really need 6'8 guys that aren't afraid play some defense and stick up for their teammates. A huge win for all parties involved.

Joe Ingles had played all 8 of his seasons with the Utah Jazz and is a fan favorite. He tore his left ACL in late January and was out of the season. Desperate to salvage their season, the Jazz traded Joe Ingles at the trade deadline. As a player, Joe Ingles is not what he used to be. Joe came into the NBA at age 27. And, until last year, shot an average of 41.4% from three and was a decent defender. Last year, his 3P% dropped all the way down to 34.7% for the season before the injury and just wasn't the same. Ingles will be turning 35 this year. As a player, at this point in his career, Joe is probably at best a serviceable bench player. But with what he also brings to the Jazz locker room, the Jazz should 100% offer him the veterans minimum to come back to Utah. Hopefully the Jazz can get Ingles back and ease him into less and less minutes as he gets older like Udonis Haslem has done with the Miami Heat.

According to sources, the 76ers are "willing to include Matisse Thybulle in any trade that includes Tobais Harris" (LINK).  It is not a secret the 76ers have been looking to move Tobias Harris's contract for a while now. And both Thybulle and Georges Niang struggled to get any significant playing time in the playoffs. I could see the Jazz doing something like Clarkson/Conley/Gay for Harris/Thybulle/Niang. From the Jazz perspective, it might not necessarily be an upgrade in talent, but it is arguably an upgrade in fit. It address 1) small backcourt problem 2) defense / forced turnovers, and 3) camaraderie. Having Tobias in the starting lineup instead of Conley makes the Jazz bigger. Thybulle off the bench brings defense / forced turnovers. And Niang was awesome for the locker room while with the Jazz.

Some 76ers fans I've talk to love this trade straight up for the 76ers, like the idea of adding Clarkson/Conley/Gay. Others I've talked to believe that will leave their team with too many point guards and not enough wings/forwards. So maybe a 3 team deal would make more sense with a team that is interested in Mike Conley (The Cavs trade LeVert? The Clippers trade Marcus Morris + someone like Kennard?). For the Jazz, this trade feels like a "last resort" type trade to me - addressing the major weaknesses but not necessary upgrading talent.

The Jazz will also need to address their backup center position with Hassan Whiteside's contract ending, and I am not sure if Hassan will want to resign with the Jazz at the vets min or not. Meanwhile, notorious locker room favorite Boban Marjanovic completely fell out of the rotation in Dallas this season. I'm sure the Mavs would willing to listen to trade proposals for Boban's expiring contract with $3.5 mil left his year since they are not playing him anyway. Boban could be a serviceable backup center for Gobert, and would also help with camaraderie. And, side note, if the Jazz end up trading for Tobias Harris, wouldn't it be awesome to reunite Tobi & Bobi?! 

Final Thoughts: All or Nothing

My theory is that the Utah Jazz are currently a Tier 2 team that performs like a Tier 3 team due to lack of leadership & camaraderie. Ricky Rubio off the bench would do wonders for the lack of leadership / camaraderie, and acquiring a player like Harrison Barnes and maybe Brogdon and/or Marcus Morris could be the piece they need become a Tier 1 team.

As a final note, this "Option 1" should not be only partial done or it won't work.

The Jazz need to address both problems in the offseason, or else they need to trade Gobert and/or Mitchell. Just acquiring a borderline-elite 3&D player isn't enough. Just addressing their lack of leadership and camaraderie isn't enough. If they want go into next season with both Gobert and Mitchell, they must address both of these weaknesses this offseason.

For example, if the Jazz address their lack of leadership and camaraderie, but fail to upgrade the talent at the wing position, they will still not be good enough to be legit contenders. Let's say they sign Rubio, Ingles, and trade for Boban. But that's it. That would for sure help with the lack of leadership and camaraderie, but still leaves the Jazz not talented enough at the wing position to win a championship.

On the flip side, if the only thing they do is trade for someone like Jerami Grant or Marcus Morris, but fail to address the lack of leadership and camaraderie, that is a recipe for disaster. That lack of leadership and lack of camaraderie needs to also be address if the Jazz want to keep Gobert and Mitchell together for another season.

What a successful "Option 1" Offseason might look like:

Cavs trade

PG Donovan Mitchell / Ricky Rubio / Trent Forrest

SG Victor Oladipo / Jordan Clarkson

SF Bojan Bogdanovic / Danuel House
PF Kevin Love / Royce O'Neale / Joe Ingles
C Rudy Gobert / Udoka Azubiuke

76ers & Pacers trade

PG Malcolm Brogdon / Ricky Rubio / Jared Butler

SG Donovan Mitchell / Matisse Thybulle

SF Bojan Bogdanovic / Danuel House
PF Tobias Harris / Georges Niang / Joe Ingles
C Rudy Gobert / Boban Marjanovic

Clippers Trade

PG Donovan Mitchell / Ricky Rubio / Jared Butler

SG Terrance Mann / Jordan Clarkson /

SF Bojan Bogdanovic / Brandon Boston / Royce O'Neal

PF Marcus Morris / Markieff Morris / Joe Ingles

C Rudy Gobert / Udoka Azubiuke

Pistons & Wizards Trade

PG Donovan Mitchell / Gary Payton II / Trent Forrest

SG Kentavious Caldwall-Pope / Jordan Clarkson

SF Jerami Grant / Danuel House / Joe Ingles

PF Bojan Bogdanovic / Juancho Hernangomez / Eric Paschall

C Rudy Gobert / Udoka Azubiuke

Options 2, 3, & 4

If the Utah Jazz can't upgrade their roster and/or fit AND address their lack of leadership and camaraderie, they cannot get good enough around Gobert and Mitchell, and thus they will need to trade one of them.

Click HERE for Option 2 - Trading Rudy Gobert

Click HERE for Option 3 - Trading Donovan Mitchell

Click HERE for Option 4 - Tanking

Why the 76ers & Kings should call the Utah Jazz to get the Ben Simmons trade done.

The Recent Daryl Morey Interview

Daryl Morey just gave some great insight on what he is looking for in a Ben Simmons deal.

Here are a few highlights:

• "Everyone sees what's happening with Joel and how special that is... We have got to do whatever we can to help him.
• “It’s precisely because Joel is playing so amazing that this deal [the Ben trade] has to be the one.”
• Morey point out some specific things he is looking to improve, including defense, rebounding, playmaking, and transition game. But then followed that up with "We have, actually, a lot of things we need to improve.""
• “If you trade one of these great players (Ben Simmons) for multiple players, it does not change your championship odds enough to make a difference. For Joel, we have to make sure we get this right and that we move ourselves into a higher tier of ability to win the championship."
• Morey says they have lowered their asking price for Simmons because of how great Joel Embiid has been playing. “Because Joel’s playing amazing… now we might be able to do it with a top-40 player who’s a great fit."
• “I think it’s less likely than likely (that Ben Simmons is moved by the trade deadline), but hopefully I’m wrong. It won’t be from lack of trying.”

To sum all that up: Daryl Morey is very motivated to get a deal done but will not settle for anything outside of a current top 40 player that fits with Joel Embiid.

Why the Kings need to do this trade BEFORE the Trade Deadline

Ben Simmons reportedly "would have no problem going to Sacramento" and was even reported as having them as one of the few teams he actually wants to play for.

"He's the kind of talent the Kings would never have a chance of getting in free agency."

The Kings haven't made the playoffs in 15 years; but now a superstar has them on his small list of teams he wants to get traded to? Don't mess this up Sacramento!

Not only that, but De'Aaron Fox and Ben Simmons compliment each other very well. They fit!

The Kings have a chance to get a generational player on their team who is 1) just entering his prime, 2) actually wants to play for them, and 3) fits perfect with other franchise player. The Kings simply cannot miss on this opportunity.

Right now is the time to get a deal done; because other destinations don't have good offers right now. The Kings are the best suitors by far for the 76ers. But if they wait, they could lose that status and get outbid in the offseason.

For example, right now, the Warriors are not interested in breaking up their team to trade for Ben Simmons. However, they might be interested in trading for Ben Simmons in the offseason and could potentially outbid the Kings. Right now, the Lakers don't have a good enough packet that the 76ers would accept, but maybe that changes in the offseason as well. And who know what other suitors will come up in the offseason. Maybe the Celtics? Who knows?

The Kings simply can't risk letting other teams get back into the Ben Simmons discussion by waiting until the offseason.

The 76ers are motivated to make a deal now, and the Kings are the only legit suitors and should be willing to do what it takes to make it happen before the trade deadline.

The Rumored Rejected Kings Trade

"The Kings were looking at trading Buddy Hield, Tyrese Haliburton, Harrison Barnes, and two first-round picks for Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris and Matisse Thybulle, according to The Philadelphia Inquirer. But the 76ers rejected the idea."

I think there are a lot of reasons why the 76ers are not interested in that trade. First of all, none of those players fit the criteria of "a top-40 player who’s a great fit." In fact, this might be the exact trade Daryl Morey has thinking of when he said “If you trade one of these great players for multiple players, it does not change your championship odds enough to make a difference." Haliburton maybe have top 40 potential down the road, but not right now. He is only 21. By the time he is in his prime, Joel Embiid will be out of his prime and it will be too late. Second of all, I don't think the 76ers are interest in moving Thybulle.

This trade package just doesn't work for the win-now 76ers.

This is where the Utah Jazz come in

"A top-40 player who's a great fit" screams Mike Conley to me.

Conley made the All Star game last year, and has been a fringe All Star his entire career. He led a Grizzlies team for years with center Marc Gasol. Now he is doing it with Rudy Gobert. Just imagine what we could do with MVP talent Joel Embiid!

Conley and Embiid are not just a "great fit;" they're perfect for each other.

The Kings trade missing a top 40 player, but adding Mike Conley would change that. Also, the original trade does not address all of the needs Daryl Morey specifically listed. One of the things he said he wanted was playmaking. Mike Conley is an elite playmaker.

As a side bonus - the 76ers are rumored to want to get off of Tobias Harris's contract when moving Ben Simmons. 99% of the league would not want to take Tobias Harris, but I think the Jazz might be the one team that would be willing to take on that contact.

What are the Jazz getting out of this?

The answer: Tyrese Haliburton.

I do not believe the Jazz are actively looking to make a major trade before the trade deadline. They are fringe contenders right now and they are perfectly content going into the playoffs with their current roster. However, they would not be favored against the Warriors or the Suns in a playoff series. So I guess I would call it a "punchers chance."

Size has been a problem for the Jazz the last few seasons. Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell are both 6'1. It is hard to win in today's NBA with two player that short in a starting rotation. If the Jazz had the chance secure a young, talented combo guard to pair with Donovan Mitchell for the future, they would have to at least consider it.

Haliburton is 21 years old and is listed at 6'5. His career 3P% is currently at 42%. I think Hali could be the perfect backcourt player to pair with Donovan Mitchell for the foreseeable future. Maybe for Donovan's entire career!

Besides size, age is about to become a big problem for Utah. The Jazz are decent contenders right now, but their window is closing. Mike Conley and Joe Ingles are 34. Rudy Gay is 35. Bojan Bogdanovic and Hassan Whiteside are 32. And Rudy Gobert and Jordan Clarkson are both 29. Donovan Mitchell is just entering his prime, but all of his teammates are on the tail end. In three years, Donovan could be looking around at a pretty bare supporting cast.

So I say again, if the Jazz are given the opportunity get younger with a high potential 21 year old, perfect backcourt player with Donovan, while at the same time also still being able to contend in the playoffs this year, I think the Jazz would have to seriously consider that. In fact, I think they would have to take it.

And, even though Tobias Harris has one of the most contracts in the league, the Jazz could actually use him. Tobias would probably even start over the undersized Royce O'Neale. A starting lineup of Haliburton, Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic, Tobias Harris, and Rudy Gobert isn't even that far off of their current starting lineup of Conley, Mitchell, Royce, Bognaovic, and Gobert.

Also, that horrible Tobais contract actually lines up quite nicely with Haliburton's rookie contract. So when it is time to pay Haliburton the big bucks in two and a half years from now, Tobias's will finally be an unrestricted free agent.

The Trade

Philadelphia 76ers receive:

• Mike Conley
• Harrison Barnes
• Buddy Hield
• Rudy Gay, Joe Ingles, or Jordan Clarkson.

Sacramento Kings receive:

• Ben Simmons
• An expiring contract (probably either Joe Ingles or Danny Green).

Utah Jazz receives:

• Tyrese Haliburton
• Tobias Harris

Specific Trade Scenarios

Trade Scenario 1

The 76ers get their top 40 player that is a perfect fit with Joel Embiid in Mike Conley. Daryl Morey checks all those other boxes, too, getting help with defense, rebounding, playmaking, transition game, etc. with Conley, Barnes, Hield, and Gay.

The Kings get their superstar Ben Simmons and they only have to trade the three players they were already willing to trade. Plus they don't have to take on Tobias Harris's contract and they don't have to give up those two 1st round draft picks either.

The Jazz get taller, younger, and the high potential 21 year old Haliburton.

Trade Scenario 2

In Scenario 2, I have the 76ers getting reining 6MOY Jordan Clarkson instead of Rudy Gay, and the Kings taking Danny Green's expiring contract instead of Joe Ingles. Everything else is the same.

Talent wise, I don't quite like this variation as much for the 76ers. I think Rudy Gay makes more sense than Clarkson. Philly would already have plenty of guards (Conley, Hield, Curry, Maxey, and Thybulle). Plus they would now be losing forward Danny Green in this scenario as well. That would put a lot of pressure on Harrison Barnes and Georges Niang at the 4 position, whereas Scenario 1 would include both Rudy Gay and Danny Green to the 4 mix. But an argument can be made that the 76ers need a shot creator / bucket getter like Clarkson off the bench. And maybe they just like JC more than Gay. Plus, with this trade variation, now would be are trading 3 players for 4 instead of 2 for 4; so there in now only one roster spot they need to free up instead of 2.

It's pretty much exactly the same for the Kings. They still get their guy Ben Simmons and an expiring contract.

From the Jazz perspective, it's about a wash. They keep more size but get less younger. I would probably rather have Gay and Ingles this year if I am the Jazz. They need size, so trading two guards for one guard and one forward could actually work very well for Utah. Plus keeping Joe Ingles and Rudy Gay adds versatility, playmaking, and shooting. However, they would miss JC's offense off the bench. And in the scenario they are trading away a 29 year old player instead of the two 34+ year old players, so going forward after this, scenario 1 might be better.

Conclusion

I think the 76ers would for sure do this deal especially Trade Scenario 1. They would be getting everything Daryl Morey wants for Ben Simmons and more, plus they would be getting rid of the Tobias Harris contract.

I think the Kings would do it too. I do not think the Kings can afford to let Ben Simmons stay on the 76ers this year and then potentially lose out on him to a different team in the offseason. The Kings are only giving up the 3 players they already were rumored to be willing to give up. And now they don't have to give away any picks.

And I think the Jazz would do it. They would have the chance to give Donovan Mitchell perhaps the perfect backcourt partner in Tyrese Haliburton for the foreseeable future; maybe even play their entire primes together like Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Tobias and Haliburton address two of the Jazz's biggest weaknesses: size and age. The Jazz future would be much brighter, without damaging their current playoffs contention status too much. And although the Tobias contract is horrible, pairing it with Haliburton's rookie contract makes it not-as-bad.

Playing Around with Ben Simmons Trades

Today I saw a tweet from 76ers beat writer Keith Pompey saying "A league source said the Timberwolves, Pacers, Cavaliers, Pistons, Raptors and Spurs are still inquiring about Ben Simmons’ availability."

There are two main things I do not like about this tweet for the 76ers.

The first thing I don't like for the 76ers is that is it sounds too reactive on Philly's part. Why are teams calling them instead of the other way around? The 76ers need to be proactive in trading Ben Simmons. The Sixers should be calling teams that have the players they want, not waiting around for teams to call them. There needs to be some urgency here. Preseason is important if you're trying to win a championship. The Sixers would be much better off making a trade sooner than later. Joel Embiid is the reining MVP runner up; despite playing only 51 regular season games last year. He turns 28 in March. Philly can't afford to waste this season. Embiid probably only has a 2-4 years left in his prime; and bigs with injury histories tend to decline fast. The Sixers should be trying to trade Simmons ASAP so they can focus on trying to win a championship with Embiid while they still can.

The second thing I don't like about this tweet for the 76ers is that none of those six teams have an elite player that is ready to win a ring now with Embiid. Embiid needs someone that can initiate the offense and bring the ball up. Philly already has good shooters and good wing players (Seth Curry, Danny Green, Tobias Harris...). If I were the 76ers, I would be looking for an established, proven All Star floor general that compliments Joel Embiid. I don't want picks. I don't want 20 year olds with potential that need to develop over the next 3+ years. The Sixers don't have 3 years to develop a rookie in place of Ben Simmons. Like I said, they have maybe a 2-4 year window with prime Joel Embiid. They need a floor general that's also in his prime. None of the six teams in the tweet have a player that fits that description.

That said, which players do fit that description?

If I am the 76ers, my "wish list" would probably look something like this:

1. Luka
2. Steph
3. Harden
4. Dame
5. CP3
6. Butler
7. Kyrie
8. Beal
9. Westbrook
10. Conley

Most of those players are probably untouchable. But, part of being "Proactive" is doing your due diligence. Call the Mavs. Ask them about Luka. "Would you trade Luka for Ben Simmons and 3 first round picks? If not, what if we get a third team involved? Is there any player in the NBA you would trade Luka for? If yes, we'll call them right now and see if we can work something out."

If not, start going down the list. Luka, Steph, and Harden are probably untouchable. But call those teams anyway and see if there's anything you can work out.

Dame Lillard is an interesting one to me.

Portland barely made the playoffs last year. Portland then lost in the first round to a Nuggets team that was missing Jamal Murray.

It's time for Portland face reality: their current team is not a title contender. If they can trade Dame Lillard for an Godfather package of young players and picks, they should do it and get a huge headstart on a rebuild. It's a good business move; but they could spin it as "we owe it to Dame to trade him to a contender."

Portland probably isn't interested in Ben Simmons. So now we look back at the initial tweet. I don't know what those six teams are willing to trade for Ben Simmons, but I'm sure they all include young talent and/or several 1st round draft picks. Let Portland pick which package they like better. Maybe the Timberwolves are willing to trade Anthony Edwards and a first round pick in order to pair Ben Simmons with KAT and D-Lo. Philly would add more first round picks as well. Maybe something like this:

The Timberwolves get Ben Simmons like they wanted. The 76ers get what they were looking for - an elite point that has the same window of prime window as Joel Embiid. Dame and Embiid can try to win a championship in the next 2-4 years. Portland gets a young player with potential and 4-5 first round draft pick - a huge head start in a rebuild.

If Portland says no, keep going down the list.

CP3 and Jimmy Butler are probably untouchable.

Kyrie for Ben Simmons makes a lot of sense, but I doubt Kevin Durant will let the Nets do that.

Maybe the Wizards are willing to do a trade Beal for Simmons?

If none of those work, I would look into a Ben Simmons for Russell Westbrook trade. Westbrook isn't at the top of my wish list if I'm the Sixers, but he IS on the list. Pairing Westbrook with Embiid would be a great duo, and surrounded by Seth Curry, Danny Green, and Tobias Harris filling out the starting 5, they would be serious title contenders for the rest of Embiid's prime.

LeBron James has always been vocal about how much he likes Ben Simmons. At this point in their careers, Simmons probably has a lot more valuable than Westbrook, so I think the Lakers are willing to do a trade like this.. Maybe something like:

(It wouldn't be the first time LeBron has traded Ben Simmons for Russell Westbrook.)

If the Lakers say no, keep going down the list. 

If nobody else is interested dealing with the 76ers, the Utah Jazz should be willing to work something out. Mike Conley was an All Star last year. Conley was 2nd in league in plus/minus last season at +548 and was a huge reason way the Jazz got the #1 overall seed.

Mike Conley fits everything Philly needs to be title contenders for rest of Embiid's prime. He is a proven elite floor general that has made deep playoff runs with Marc Gasol and Rudy Gobert. He is deadly from 3 if you go under on screens. Imagine what he and Embiid could do together.

The other thing Philly could really use is a player that can create his own shot and get a bucket. Coincidentally, 6th man of the year Jordan Clarkson's contract plus Mike Conley's contract adds up perfectly to match Ben Simmon's contract. A line up for Embiid, Tobias, Green, Curry, and Conley with Clarkson coming off the bench would be legit title contenders for the rest of Embiid's prime.

But why would the Utah Jazz do this?

Building around 25 year old Donovan Mitchell is a tricky situation. He is only 6'1 and needs the ball in his hands. 33 year old, 6'1 Mike Conley has worked ok playing next to Mitchell, but is not an ideal backcourt with Donovan. First of all, it is almost impossible to play two short players under 6'2 at the same time in today's NBA. You can hide one short player, but not two. Secondly, Mitchell just turned 25. In 2-4 years, Conley will be out of his prime right when Mitchell is entering his. If Conley retires when Donovan Mitchell is 29, that is obviously not ideal. And thirdly, Conley is also best with the ball in his hands, so he doesn't compliment Mitchell's game as well as another guard could.

Honestly, it is extremely difficult to win the NBA championship if your best player is a short guard. The only team that has done that in the last 30 years is the 2015 Warriors with Steph Curry. His backcourt partner was 6'6, Mr. never-needs-to-dribble Klay Thompson. The Jazz should probably be looking for a Klay Thompson type player to put in the backcourt with Donovan Mitchell.

I do not believe the Jazz would be interested in Ben Simmons. With Rudy Gobert already on the team, having two players that won't shoot from long distance makes it very hard to win in today's NBA. Plus, Utah is probably the 2nd-to-last team Ben Simmons wants to play for besides Philadelphia (Simmons has thrown shade towards both Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert in the past). So we look at those six teams in the original tweet that wants Ben Simmons as a 3rd team in a trade.

The player that's jumping out the most to me for the Utah Jazz is Malcolm Brogdon. What are the Pacers wanting to trade for Ben Simmons? If Brogdon is on the table, he would be that taller, lengthy guard next to Donovan Mitchell in the backcourt. He shoots the three well. Add either Jeremy Lamb or T.J. Warren maybe a pick or two, and that might be enough for all three teams involved. Maybe something like this:

The 76ers get both of their needs filled with All Star floor general Mike Conley and the deadly create-his-own-shot 6MOY Jordan Clarkson. This puts the Sixers as legit title contenders for the rest of Embiid's prime. The Pacers get Ben Simmons like they wanted. And the Jazz get younger and build around Donovan Mitchell better. 

Looking at the other teams in the initial tweet... I have no idea what the Pistons are trying to offer for Ben Simmons, but if Jerami Grant (a perfect PF next to Rudy Gobert) and 6'8 guard Cade Cunningham (maybe the perfect guard next to Donovan Mitchell) are on the table, that should be a huge yes from the Jazz.

(Personally I don't think the Pistons would do this, but then again, I would have never thought the Pistons would be interested in Ben Simmons so what do I know?)

In summary, the 76ers should not be nonchalant about trading Ben Simmons. They need to be proactive. Just fielding calls isn't good enough. Joel Embiid is an MVP caliber player that is in his prime right now for a few more years. Now is the time to go for it all for the 76ers. They should be calling teams that have on of those 10-15 elite guards in the league that compliment Embiid. A player that is in their prime now, fill that floor-general role, and is an all-star level talent. Philly should be trying to get a deal done sooner rather than later, as preseason is a very important part when it comes to winning it all; especially if you are trying to integrate a new All Star player(s) and implement a new system.

In short: Don't waste these next 2-4 years! Embiid finished 2nd in MVP voting last year despite playing only 51 games - probably would have won it if they had played 10 more regular season games. He's turning 28 in March. Now is the Sixers window to win a ring. Holding onto Ben Simmons and being reactive instead or proactive in trading Simmons will only hurt their chances at winning a ring.

PS - I'd love to hear your Ben Simmons trade scenarios if you've got any! Comment here or tag me on Twitter @SpencerKeele 

2019 Free Agents (and What They Should Do)

First of all, congratulations to the Toronto Raptors on winning their first ever NBA championship. (Hopefully I can say that to the Utah Jazz one day...)


Now that the last game of the season as been played, time to turn our attention to the NBA offseason. And honestly, I already know what's best for every free agent this year. If their smart, this is what they will do -->

1. Kawhi Leonard.

Toronto is the best option right now for Kawhi. I'm not just saying that because they won it all this year. I've thought about every scenario. So let's break the roster down, because they are poised to be great again next year.

Pascal Siakam is only 24, is getting better, and will only be making $2 million next year. Fred VanVleet is also 24 and will only be making $8.5 next year. There's two young, key players that aren't even taking up much cap space.)

Lowry is 32 years old and Serge Ibaka is 29 - both locked up for next year.

The only players that could leave this year besides Kawhi are Marc Gasol (player option) and Danny Green (unrestricted). If the Raptors can't keep them both (which I think they will), they should be able to get good free agents to replace them. Returning champs often get the better free agents.

So if I were Kawhi Leonard, I would opt out of my player option, and sign a 2 year contract with the Raptors with a player option for the 2nd year. See how it goes next year, but give myself an out if I need it.

2. Kevin Durant.

The injury changes everything. I hope he can recover quickly and fully.

KD will to miss the entire season next year. If I am Kevin Durant, why try to predict what the landscape will look like in a year from now? I would definitely opt into that $31.5 player option this year with the Warriors and rehab. Why sign with new team that you are not going to play for at all next year when you have $31.5 million dollars on the table? He should wait and get himself right. Then, in a year from now, he can see what the landscape looks like and make the decision that is best for him.

3. Kyrie Irving.

All signs point to him wanting to play with the Nets. So I'm all for that. Go where you want. The Nets did well this year without a superstar. They have a lot of cap space to work with and build a team around Kyrie. It works.

4. Klay Thompson

This one is the hardest one for me. If Durant picks up his player option like I think he should do, that means Curry, Durant, Green, Iguadala, and Livingston (if he picks up his player option) would make up $155,148,381 of the Warriors' team salary. That is more than 9 entire teams this year! That's more than the entire 76ers roster this year! If they resign Klay at a max deal, they will not have any cap room for anything else. And you're stuck with a hurt Durant and an aging Andre Iguadala and Livingston.

So, if I'm Klay, I'm seriously considering leaving. And honestly, I'd taking a good, hard look at the Los Angeles Lakers. If they land Anthony Davis via trade, they will have a great front court but they will desperately need guards. Klay would be the perfect fit. Klay's, LeBron's, and AD's strengths would complimenting each other perfectly. Klay is a great 3 point shooter, great off the ball, and great defender. LeBron is best initiating the offense, loves to get teammates involved, and needs spacing to be most effective. Davis has never gone deep in the playoffs and would benefit having those two champions, he can stretch the floor, and also plays great defense. That big 3 would bring out the best in each other and would probably be the favorite to win it all next year. Not to mention, LeBron and A.D. would be able to get the Lakers into the playoffs while Klay is healing.

5. Kemba Walker.

He said he would take less money to stay in Charlotte, and I think the Hornets want him to stay. I think they find a deal where both are happy and he stays.

6. Jimmy Butler.

In my current scenario, the Clippers did not get Kawhi. They are still a perfect destination for a superstar small forward that plays great offense and defense. If they miss out on Kawhi, I think they could end up offering a max deal to Butler and I think Butler would thrive there. He could be "the guy" and have a very competitive team. Great match.

7. DeMarcus Cousins.

Kevin Durant's injury and not getting the #1 pick completely killed the Knicks' off season plans. Rumors had the Knicks getting the #1 pick, trading it for Anthony Davis, signing KD and maybe Kyrie, and then being the favorites to win the East.

Now, the Knicks have a ton of cap space, but Kyrie Irving is probably going to the Brooklyn Nets, Anthony Davis is getting traded to either the Lakers or the Celtics, and Kevin Durant can't play next year even if he signs with the Knicks. And if KD picks up his player option like I think he should, the Knicks are left only with "maybe Durant will come to New York next year."

I could see the Knicks offering Cousins a bigger contract than any other team (maybe just a one or two year contract tho). And if I were Boogie Cousins, I would love to go play at the Garden next year - especially if they were the highest bidders for my services.

8. Marc Gasol.

I think he opts into his $25.5 mil player option and stays with the Raptors.

9. Khris Middleton.

I think he opts out of his $13 mil but resigns (with a bigger contract) to stay in Milwaukee. They love him there and will probably pay him well to stay.

10. Tobias Harris.

The 76ers have Embiid and Simmons on pretty cap-space friendly contracts right now, and everyone else (pretty much) are free agents. If they lose Butler, like I have in this scenario, they have have a ton of money to spend and will be desperate to keep talent around their two young superstars. I think Philly offers Tobias a huge contract (especially if Butler leaves) and Tobias gets to stay with a great team.

11. DeAngelo Russell.

He says he wants to stay in Brooklyn, he is a restricted free agent, and if Brooklyn gets Kyrie they will want to keep as much talent on the team and try to contend next year. I can't see DeAngelo anywhere else next year right now.



That's what I think they should do anyway! Although I could also see KD signing a 4 year max deal with the Knicks despite his injury if that's where he knows he want to be. And I could for sure see Jimmy Butler wanting to stay in Philly as well. What would you do in these free agent's shoes? Let me know!

By The Numbers: Dwyane Wade's Record Breaking Amount of Free Throws in 2006 NBA Finals

Dwyane Wade shot a jaw-dropping amount of free throws in the 2006 NBA finals against the Dallas Mavericks. He shattered records and destroyed linear projections. The attempts were so much more than normal, that other players and coaches throughout the NBA couldn't help but take notice and make comments. Let's look into the numbers:

FTA Per Game

Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant are two players with a similar tendency to get to the free throw line so I will use their averages and "highest averages" to compare how much more Wade's 2006 finals average was.

Dwyane Wade's career playoff FTA is 6.9
Kobe Bryant's career playoff FTA is 7.4

Dwyane Wade's five highest FTA (discounting 2006) are: 9.9, 8.5, 8.3, 8.0, 8.0 ('05, '11, '09, '07, '10 - respectively).
Kobe Bryant's five highest averages are 9.4, 9.2, 8.7, 8.6, 8.0 ('01, '08, '03, '09, '10).

Dwyane Wade's FTA in the 2006 Finals was 16.2

That is a 65% increase from his second highest average of 9.9 and a 70% increase from Kobe's highest free throw average of 9.4!

Free Throw Attempts Total

Now lets take a look at the records for most FTA in a playoff series:

• Most FTA in a 4 game series - 68 by Shaquille O'Neal 2002
• Most FTA in a 5 game series - 79 by Karl Malone 1992
• Most FTA in a 6 game series - 97 by Dwyane Wade 2006
• Most FTA in a 7 game series - 100 by Charles Barkley 1986

As you can see by the numbers and also by the line graph (below), Wade's 97 total free throws in a 6 game series is ridiculously higher than it should be on a linear tread line, even when dealing strictly with record holding numbers.

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Tim Donaghy, ex NBA Ref, said in his book "I knew from the get go that Dallas didn't have a chance in the NBA finals. People in the NBA front office had no love for Cuban and the majority of NBA Referees had even less."

Why LeBron James to the Boston Celtics is the best choice for both Boston and for LeBron

The best case scenario for the Boston Celtics this off season is getting LeBron James.

The best case scenario for LeBron James this off season is going to the Boston Celtics.

They are perfect for each other. They need to make this happen - even if it means trading Kyrie Irving.

Let's start with why it is perfect for Boston:

The Aging Superstar with Up-And-Coming Talent is Proven Success.

Adding LeBron to Tatum, Hayward, Horford, and those other young players would turn Boston into a dynasty. They would undoubtedly win several rings and continue to contend after LeBron declines/retires. Look at these examples: Kareem and Magic. David Robinson and Tim Duncan. Duncan and Kawhi Leonard. The nearing-the-end-of-their-prime superstar paired with young talent is a proven recipe for success.

LeBron fits perfectly with Boston's Tatum, Horford, and Hayward.

Brad Stevens will surely be starting are Horford, Hayward, and Tatum. LeBron as the forth starter would make this team perhaps the most versatile team of all time. LeBron can play that "point-foward" roll of bringing the ball up and initiating the offense, thus allowing you to start a defensive player like Marcus Smart or a center like Morris or Baynes. Or, LeBron could play off the ball, allowing Stevens to start a point guard like Kyrie, Brown, or Rozier. Ultimately, these four main players gives Brad Steven's the freedom to plug in and rotate players however he wants; regardless of position.

Kyrie's contract is perfect if you have to move him

Kyrie does not have a no trade clause. He also only has one more year left on his contract. This makes moving him easy. Here's a question I've heard: Are the Celtics better off starting Brown or Rozier than Irving anyway? The fact that this is even a legitimate question makes moving Kyrie for LeBron an easy choice. Kyrie's bad defense makes him a borderline starter on this Celtics team with player like Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier that are already better on defense, getting better on offense, and play the same position. With LeBron James instead of Kyrie, you've upgraded on both sides of the ball.

Winning Championships

Winning championships is what both parties want, so let's now transition into why Boston is perfect for LeBron.

LeBron has never played for a great coach.

Besides the obvious "best chance to win rings," there are other perfect benefits to joining Boston for LeBron. The first one is playing for Danny Ainge and Brad Stevens. LeBron pretty much had to bring an entire new culture to Cleveland to make the Cavaliers a contender. LeBron had to help the front office, the coaching, and also carry a huge load as a player. That sounds exhausting. Finishing his career with Boston would mean being able to focus on being a player, and at most a "coach on the court" where he helps Stevens carry out the game plan. All the other stuff would be covered at a high level. Stevens would be far and away the best coach LeBron has ever played for. And Danny Ainge is one of the best general managers in the league. Stevens would make a great system that includes LeBron and worry about the parts of the game like when to call time-outs, leaving LeBron free to focus more on being the best player he can be.

LeBron would be "the guy" at first and then transition like Kareem and Duncan.

LeBron would be joining a team without any MVPs and, if they did end up trading Kyire, a team without any championship experience. LeBron could to go Boston and LEAD them to a ring in the next year or two. Then, as he gets older, watch the other Celtics step up and carry more and more of the load. And then, like the Lakers did for Kareem and the Spurs did for Duncan, LeBron could still be contending for championships at 40 years old because his team being able to carry a lot more of the load.

Defense Wins Championships.

Plain and simple. Boston was the best defensive team in the NBA last year - especially after Kyrie Irving got hurt. All the greats had great defenses. Michael Jordan had Pippen and Rodman. Kobe had defensive-player-of-the-year Metta World Peace for his last ring, and Shaq for his first ones. The Warriors are a great defensive team. The Celtics would immediately become the best defensive team LeBron has ever been on.

Stay in the East

This is a lesser reason but a good reason none-the-less. If LeBron were to go West, he would have to go through Golden State before the finals. He would have to go through Houston (if he didn't join them). Other teams like the Jazz are one piece away from being very good. You think the East is worse than the West now? Imagine if LeBron left it. That would destroy the balance of the conferences. LeBron staying in the East keeps the conferences closer in strength and makes for a better finals.

In conclusion, LeBron and Boston are perfect for each other - regardless if they to give up Kyrie in order to make it work. If Boston's goal is to become a dynasty and win championships, their best move it to bring in LeBron. He completes their starting line up and brings a perfect balance of experience to their young core. LeBron would benefit greatly from Brad Stevens and the Celtics front office. He'd be joining the number one rated defense. He would have as high a chance as anywhere (except joining the Warriors) to win championships, all while not having to join up with any other current MVPs. He would set himself up to transition from carrying a team to just being a part of the team like Kareem and Duncan as he gets older. And with the cherry on top being able to stay in the East.

Three Reasons: Why Rafael Nadal Is Better Than Roger Federer.

Even if you completely disregard injuries!

“Who is better in head-to-head matchups?”

In tennis, because you play one-vs-one, head to head victories are more impressive than in team sports like football or basketball. In tennis, you cannot shift responsibility to teammates for wins or loses. The fact that Nadal gets the better of Federer more often than not is a huge tell:

Nadal is 9-5 against Federer in majors.
Nadal is 4-3 against Federer in majors if you don’t count Clay courts.
Nadal is 5-0, then, against Federer at the French Open.
Nadal is 23-15 all-time against Federer is all tennis tournaments.

“But Federer has won 20 majors and Nadal just 17…”

Although 20 majors is very impressive, context also matters.

Federer was born at a lucky time. 12 of his 20 majors came during weak competition between 2003-2007. Federer started his professional career in 1999. Pete Sampras retired in 2002. Federer finally won his first major in late 2003 and then won 11 more of his 20 in the subsequent four years (04-07). The 2^nd best tennis player in the world during that time was Andy Roddick. Here are the 12 majors Federer won during that span (and who he beat in the finals):

• 2003 Wimbledon over Mark Philippoussis.
• 2004 Australian Open over Marat Safin.
• 2004 Wimbledon over Andy Roddick.
• 2004 US Open over Lleyton Hewitt.
• 2005 Wimbledon over Andy Roddick (2nd time).
• 2005 US Open over old Andre Agassi (Agassi's last final’s appearance)
• 2006 Australian Open over Marcos Baghdatis
• 2006 Wimbledon over young Rafael Nadal (20 years old)
• 2006 US Open over Andy Roddick (3rd time)
• 2007 Australian Open over Fernando Gonzalez
• 2007 Wimbledon over Rafael Nadal (21 years old.)*
• 2007 US Open over young Novak Djokovic (Novak's 1st final appearance)

*This was that 5 set match Federer barely won. Nadal
would come back the next year to beat Federer at Wimbledon.

As you can see, Federer took advantage of a time that was the tail-end of Pete Sampras and Andre Aggassi and the very beginning of Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray to win a majority of his majors. Over Federer’s 19 year career (1999-current), more than half of his majors came between the years 2004-2007. While you can't blame him for taken advantage of bad competition, his accomplishments do have their accompanying context. It is very telling that Federer never won a major in his first four years, won over half his majors in the next four years, and then only won eight majors over the next eleven years. Federer was only 26 after 2007, so not-being-in-his-prime is not what caused the decline in winning. It was Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, and other decent tennis players getting into their primes. The competition got harder. And since the competition got harder, aka since 2008, Nadal has actually won more majors (14) than Federer (8).

“Isn't Nadal a clay court specialist?”

Nadal, while dominating Clay, also has done very well on all other surfaces. Nadal has won six majors off clay (four on hard court and two on grass). Where Federer has only won one major on clay court. So if you think about it, considering that grass and hard court are very similar and clay is much different: Federer is more the specialist than Nadal. Federer struggles mightily on clay courts where Nadal has been impressive on all courts. Nadal has bested Federer on both Grass (2008 Wimbledon finals) and hard court (Australian Open finals). Federer, on the other hand, has never come close to beating Nadal on clay.

(Side Note: Nadal has a gold medal in Olympics: Men's Singles. Federer does not.)

In conclusion, since 2008 when Nadal started his prime, he has won more majors than Federer (14 majors to Federer’s 8). Nadal is significantly better on both grass/hard courts than Federer is on clay (so who's really the specialist?). And Nadal simply beats Federer more often than not when they play against each other (on or off clay courts!). Therefore, I must concluded that Nadal is the better overall tennis player. Federer’s overall stats, while impressive, are also inflated because of his taking advantage of weak competition from 2004-2007. Nadal’s overall stats, which are not far behind Federer’s, were harder earned against the better competition from 2008-on.