The AFC West is Very Overrated

Today, as I was listening to a sports radio station, I realized that many of us have fallen in love with the AFC West. I listened to these "experts" rank the NFL teams. Each one put the Oakland Raiders at #2 overall and the Kansas City Chiefs at #5.

The AFC West has tricked many of us into thinking they have the best teams in the NFL and that their's is the best division. However, if we look deeper and actually watch their games, we can see the truth. They not not among the NFL's elite.

Here's the proof:

Their records are good because the easy out-of-conference schedule.

Face it. The AFC West's schedule is the easiest. They get to play all the teams from the two worst divisions in the NFL: The AFC South and NFC South. Playing bad teams all season = good records. They get to beat up on bad teams like the Titans, Jaguars, Buccaneers, Saints, etc. For reference: The NFC South is the only NFC division without an 8 win team, and the AFC South is the only division that doesn't have a team with a winning record.

Oakland and Kansas City both keep winning close games to average teams.

None of them have played a top tier NFL team (Dallas, New England, Seattle, etc.) except when Kansas City got destroyed by the Steelers. And whenever they play a second tier NFL team, they've never won by more than one score. Have you watched an full game of either Oakland or Kansas City? They haven't looked like the "better team" in a lot of their games.

Here's a look at the best out-of-conference teams the Raiders have played:

W Saints 35-34

L Falcons 35-28

W Ravens 28-27

W Texans 27-20

W Panthers 35-32

Here's a look at the best "out of conference" teams the Chiefs have played:

L Texans 19-12

L Steelers 43-14

W Saints 27-21

W Panthers 20-17

W Falcons 29-28

Not one convincing win against a good opponent. Notice that every win against a decent team came by 7 points or less. And the best team either one of them have played (the Steelers) destroyed them 43-17. 

Neither AFC West team is a tier 1 team. Whichever one wins that conference will be relying heavily on home field advantage to get them to the superbowl. They are tier 2 teams with good records because of an easy schedule and winning close games to other tier 2 teams.

Top 14 NBA players of all time

A year and a half ago, I made a top 25 NBA players list. So really this is a "condensed" and "updated" list.

I do top 14 players because I think these 14 players are clearly the top 14 to play in the NBA. It's hard to choose a top 10 or a top 15 but a top 14 is clear to me.

1. Bill Russell
2. Michael Jordan
3. Wilt Chamberlain
4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
5. LeBron James
6. Magic Johnson
7. Larry Bird
8. Oscar Robertson
9. Shaquille O'Neal
10. Tim Duncan
11. Hakeem Olajuwon
12. Moses Malone
13. Kobe Bryant
14. Jerry West

Links:
A chronological look at when these 14 players were the best in the league

Here is my top 25 list from a year and a half ago.

PS - Before you complain about Bill Russell having a good team, may I remind you Michael Jordan also had a great team. When MJ retired the first time in 1993, the Bulls were one questionable call away from advancing to the Eastern Conference finals and perhaps winning the whole thing and Scottie Pippen was the second runner up in MVP voting. The Bulls were legit contenders without MJ, Pippen was one of the best players in the league, and Phil Jackson is perhaps the greatest coach in NBA history. Magic's Lakers even made the playoffs after Magic retired. The Celtics, however, had never won a ring before Bill Russell and missed the playoffs for two years in a row after Russell. In fact, no other team ever fared so well after losing an all time great player in their prime than the Bulls fared without MJ (LINK).

The Year After

A look at the "year after" from NBA teams after losing an all-time NBA great in their prime:

• Bill Russell
• Final year with Celtics - Wins a ring. 
• First year without him - Miss playoffs with 34-48 record.
• Wilt Chamberlain
• Final year with Warriors - Lost in NBA finals
• First year without  him - Miss playoffs with 17-63 record.
• Final year with 76ers - Lost 7 game series in Conference Finals to Bill Russell
• First year without him - First round playoff exit losing 4-1.
• Final year with Lakers - Lost in NBA finals.
• First year without him - First round playoff exit losing 4-1.
• Magic Johnson
• Final year with Lakers - Lost in NBA finals
• First year without him - First round playoff exit losing 3-1.
• Michael Jordan
• Final year with Bulls (before coming back)- Won a ring.
• First year without him - Bulls were one questionable call away from moving on to the Conference Finals.
• Shaquille O'Neal
• Final year with Lakers - Lost in NBA finals
• First year without him - Miss playoffs with 34-48 record.
• LeBron James
• Final year with Cavaliers (before coming back) - Lost 6 game series in second round.
• First year without him - Miss playoffs with 19-63 record 
• Final year with Heat - Lost in NBA finals.
• First year without him - Miss playoffs with 37-45 record

PS - Some names I didn't include because they were far past their prime when they left their teams, so it would be an unfair comparison to see their "final year" compared to the "year after" (Kobe Bryant, Oscar Robertson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Larry Bird, etc....)

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Before seasons mixed with after seasons

Five Reasons Why Kawhi Leonard will win the 2016-17 MVP.

I think Kawhi Leonard could be the obvious choice for MVP this season in the NBA. And here are my five reasons:

1) He finished 2nd in voting last year.

2) I think he is better offensively this year than he was last year.

3) With Tim Duncan retired and Kawhi separating himself from Aldridge as "the man", Kawhi has become the main guy on a Gregg Popovich team.

4) This Spurs team will surely be a top 3 seed in the West and most likely top 2. The MVP is almost always on a top 2 seeded team. You have to be on a good team to win MVP in the NBA

5) No one else is set up as good as him. Other candidates: LeBron is done getting votes from "fatigued" voters and he also is in "chill mode" too often in the regular season. KD/Curry will hurt each other being on same team. Same with Blake and CP3 like always. And Lillard, Westbrook, Davis, and Harden's teams probably won't get top 3 or 4 seeds, which will greatly hurt their chances even if they have great stats.

Tim Duncan won back to back MVPs in 2001-2003 when he was the main man for Greg Popovich. Kawhi has established himself as the man now in San Antonio. As long and the Spurs finish top 2 seed, I believe Kawhi (who got a lot of love last year, again, finishing 2nd in the MVP race) will be the front runner for the award.

Fun Fact - Tim Duncan won his two MVPs with the Spurs when he was in his 5th and 6th season. This is Leonard's 6th season.

Best NBA Player Per Season

In honor of 2016-17 NBA opening night, I have compiled the greatest NBA players of all time; per nba season. (Starting with Bill Russell.)

Bill Russell was great from day one. In his first season (1956-57), Russell lead the league in rebounding and brought defense unlike the NBA had ever seen. Defensive stats like blocks and steals were not recorded at the time so one can only imagine what stats Bill might have had. He lead his team to 12 finals, winning 11 of them in his 13 year career. Oscar Robertson and Wilt Chamberlain came on strong not long after Russell. The three players won 10 of the 11 MVP awards from 1957-1968. In the 60's, Oscar and Wilt had some of the best statisticals season of all time (LINK), including being the only player to average a triple double (Oscar while also averaging 30+ PPG) and averaging 50.4 PPG (Wilt).

The 70's had Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who won six MVP awards, and (eventually) six rings, ten finals appearances, and the all time leader in total points. Moses Malone's prime started mid-70s and ended mid-80s. He is perhaps the most forgotten about great. Moses won three MVP awards but only ended up winning one championship in two appearances. Moses often lead the league in rebounding while also being a good scorer and defender.

The 80's were dominated by the entertaining players Larry Bird and Magic Johnson. Between 1983-1990, Magic and Bird won six of the seven MVPs (Three each) (Michael Jordan winning one in 1988). And between 1980-1989, the finals always had at least one of the two teams lead by Magic or Larry.

Michael Jordan was one of the best players in the NBA since the late 1980s. And in the 90's, he won six rings, had six finals appearances, and ended up with five MVP awards. Jordan also broke some of Wilt Chamberlain's scoring records like total scoring titles (10) and highest career PPG average (30.12). Hakeem Olajuwon capitalized on Michael's year and a half retirement, having his best two seasons, making the finals his only two times, and winning both of them.

Shaquille O'neal and Tim Duncan dominated the early 2000's. From 1999-2005, either Duncan lead or Shaq lead teams were in the finals all seven times and they won six of them. O'neal ended up with only one MVP, four championships, three finals MVP awards, and six finals appearances. Duncan ended with two MVPs, five championships, and six finals. Once Shaq and Duncan weren't so dominate, Kobe Bryant had some of his best seasons and LeBron James was taking the NBA by storm. Kobe ended up with one MVP award, five championships, two finals MVP awards, and seven appearances.

LeBron James, to me, looks a lot like Oscar Robertson but without Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain competing against him. LeBron James every season finishes in the top 5 of PPG. In fact, finished in the top four in PPG from 2005-2016 (LINK) (Last year he broke that streak when he finished 5th in PPG). Like Oscar Robertson, scoring isn't the only thing he does well. LeBron rebounds well, has good passing and court vision, a good basketball IQ, and plays great defense. James has won four MVP awards, three championships, three finals MVP awards, and seven final appearances so far.





(LINK) - "LeBron has been the best player in the best player in the league since 2007 not even close" "You can make an argument Kobe Bryant was never the best player in the league."


(LINK) - A great article on Bleacher Report:

"Ranking the 10 Greatest Individual Seasons in NBA History"

"1. Shaquille O'neal (1999-2000)

2. Wilt Chamberlain (1966-1967)

3. Michael Jordan (1990-91)
4. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1970-71)

5. Tim Duncan (2002-2003)

6. Hakeem Olajuwon (1993-94)

7. LeBron James (2011-12)

8.Wilt Chamberlain (1961-62)

9. Magic Johnson (1986-87)

10. Michael Jordan (1987-88)

Honorable Mentions

Larry Bird 1985-86

Lebron James 2008-09

Oscar Robertson 1961-62"

Here's the difference between the Heat LeBron joined and the Warriors Kevin Durant joined.

Stop putting Steve Kerr's Warriors pre-Durant and Eric Spolstra's heat pre-LeBron together. They're not similar.

Heat's last 3 seasons before LeBron James
15-67 (no playoffs)
43-39 (1st round exit)
47-35 (1st round exit)

Warrior's last 3 seasons before Kevin Durant
51-31 (1st round exit)
67-15 (won championship)
73-9 (lost in 7 game finals)


Heat's league MVPs LeBron joined up with: (none)

Warrior's league MVPs Durant joined up with: 2x defending MVP Steph Curry.

Miami Heat's odds of winning it all before LeBron joined them: 50/1.  

Warrior's odds of winning it all before Durant joined them: 7/4. 

Conclusion

These teams are not comparable. The Warriors are/were already being discussed as an all-time great team. Curry is/was already being discussed as the best player in the league. The Heat were never close to being the best team before LeBron. Wade was never even close to being considered the best player in the league. The Heat hadn't been to the finals for 4 seasons, including a 15-67 season where they finished 15th in the East. The Warriors are a young team that have dominated the West for two straight years, The Warriors had years left of dominance in them without Durant. If Durant gets a season ending injury, the Warriors are still the favorites to win it all. When LeBron left the Heat, the replaced him with Luol Deng and Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside and still missed the playoffs that next year.

Harder Road to Rings - MJ vs LeBron - 1st Ring

Sports fans love to throw around statements that they actually have no idea if they are true.

Two of the statements going around right now are the comments "LeBron James' road was harder than Micheal Jordan's road" and visa-versa "Jordan's road to rings was harder than LeBron's..."

Which one is correct? Let's us dig into NBA history and see how the to "roads" compare. This blog will cover the road to the 1st ring:

The Road to the First Ring

Playoff Round 1

MJ - Bulls vs Knicks. These Knicks got into the playoffs as the 8th seed with a losing record (39-43). The Bulls handled the Knicks easily in the sweep. The Knicks were led Patrick Ewing, who averaged 16.7 PPG in the series.

Notable award winners - Patrick Ewing: All-NBA 2nd Team.

LBJ - Heat vs Knicks. These Knicks got into the playoffs as the 7th seed with a winning record (36-30). The Heat handled the Knicks easily winning 4-1. The Knicks were led by Carmelo Anthony, who averaged 27.8 PPG in the series.
Notable award winners - Tyson Chandler: Defensive-player-of-the-year. Tyson Chandler: leader in FG%. Steve Novak: leader in 3FG%. Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler: All-NBA 3rd Team.

Playoff Round 2

MJ - Bull vs 76ers. The 76ers were the 5th seed in the East finishing the season with a 44-38 record. The Bulls handled the 76ers easily winning 4-1. The 76ers were led by Charles Barkley, who

averaged 25.6 PPG in the series.

Notable award winners - Charles Barkley: All-NBA 1st Team

LBJ - Heat vs Pacers. The Pacers were the 3rd seed in the East finishing the season with a 42-24 record. The Heat won the series 4-2. The Pacers didn’t have a clear leader, and is showed as all five starters scoring double digits in the series. 

Notable award winners - Larry Bird: Executive of the Year.

Eastern Conference Finals

MJ - Michael faced the team that knocked him out of the playoffs plenty of times: The “Bad Boys” Detroit Pistons. The Pistons were the 3rd seed in the East finishing with a 50-32 record. The Bulls had no problem with the Pistons sweeping them 4-0. 

Notable award winners – Dennis Rodman: Defensive player of the year. Joe Dumars: All NBA 3rd team.
 


LBJ - LeBron faced the team that knocked him out of the playoffs plenty of times: The “Big 3” Boston Celtics. The Celtics were the 4th seed, finishing the season with a 39-27 record. The Heat won a competitive 7 game series. 

Notable award winners – Rajon Rondo: Leader in triple doubles, leader in assist per game, and All NBA 3rd team.

The Finals

MJ - Michael’s finals were against the last of the Showtime Lakers. Kareem had retired and Magic Johnson was in his last season. The Lakers were the 3rd seed in the West. The Bulls handled the Lakers easily winning 4-1. 

Notable award winners – Magic Johnson: All NBA 1st team. James Worthy: All NBA 3rd Team.

LBJ - LeBron’s finals were against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder were the 2nd seed in the West. The Heat handled the Thunder easily winning 4-1. 

Notable award winners – Kevin Durant: Scoring title. Serge Ibaka: Leader in blocks-per-game. James Harden: 6th man of the year. Kevin Durant: All NBA 1st team. Russell Westbrook: All NBA 2nd team. Serge Ibaka: NBA All-Defensive 1st team.

Conclusion

After looking at both MJ’s and LBJ’s road to their first ring, I say they are surprisingly similar. And Degree of difficulty being about the same.





A last look of some other stats and possible factors:

Michael won his first ring in the 1990-1991 season at 27 years old.
LeBron won his first ring in the 2011-2012 season at 27 years old.

Pippen lead the Bulls in minutes per game.
LeBron lead the Heat in minutes per game.


The Bulls used the same starting line in every playoff game.
Chris Bosh only started in 10 of the Heat’s 23 playoff games as he battled injury.
Because of injury, the Heat only had three players start all of the games (LeBron, Dwyane Wade, and Mario Chalmers).

Finally, I look at the head-to-head stats of MJ vs LeBron.

Again, surprisingly similar.