Update on Mock Draft

Just FYI - the mock drafted I did at the beginning of the year... yeah i totally won that league. I was criticized for not taking a quarter back until the very end, but everyone else was reaching for quarterbacks so I didn't both. I ended up snatching Carson Palmer and Derrick Carr of waivers early in the season and was able to win that way.

See the original mock draft, every pick, and the break down HERE

Screen Shots:

Peyton Manning And His Defenses

Observation:

The Bronco's defense that "carried Tim Tebow" seemed to get much worse when Peyton Manning took over at QB, even though not much changed on the defensive side of the ball for the Broncos. Also, last years Bronco's "not #1 defense" somehow became the "#1 defense in the league" this year going into the Super Bowl without making hardly any changes from last year.


Hypothesis:

When a QB throws the ball as much as Peyton Manning used to, the statistics of that team's defense will suffer. When an offense uses a lot of clock, the statistics of the same defense will appear better.


Prior knowledge:

There is a strategy in the NFL that goes something like "keep (the other team's quarterback) off the field."


Common sense:

If a defense only has to try to stop a Tom Brady, or an Aaron Rodgers, or a Peyton Manning led offense ten times, stats like "total yards allowed" and "total points allowed" will look a lot better then if they have to try to stop them twenty times.


"Ideal" experiment:

Let's have Tim Tebow and the Broncos play a game of football game against my 'Utah Ideals' (just because I wish there was a team in Utah ;) ). Let's also have Peyton Manning play a football game against the same team. Now, the Utah Ideals always score 7 points and take exactly 3 minutes of game block starting from their own 20 yard line when playing against this particular Bronco defense. Lets say Tim Tebow scores on every drive and his average drive time takes 7 minutes of game clock. Peyton also scores on every drive and his average drive takes only 2 minutes of game clock.

So everyone scores every time, and we'll assume a touchback on every kick off. Also, for this experiment, the game will end at the end of regulation (no overtime).


After doing the math, both games end in a tie.
Game 1 - 42 to 42
Game 2 - 84 to 84


Team 1's defense (Tebow's) allowed 10.5 points per quarter and half the yards.
Team 2's defense (Peyton's) allowed 21 points per quarter and double the yards.


Q - Which defense is better?

A - Both defenses are the exact same defense. Team 2 only appears worse


Conclusion:

High volume passing QB's, especially whose that prefer to go fast, do in fact make their defense seem worse than they actually are. 

PS - This experiment doesn't even factor in rate-of-interceptions nor a fatigue factor, which would have hurt Team 2's defensive statistics even more. 

Final Statement: 

Largely because of having to be on the field more, Peyton Manning's style of play both with the Colts and with the Broncos (until this year) has made his teams' defenses seem worse than they actually were.

Clarifying statements:

• I am not proposing whether Peyton Manning's style of play is good or bad.
• I am more so directing this article to those who believe one defense is better than the other because of "total yards allowed" or because of "total points allowed."
• I am concluding that you cannot compare defenses by yards allowed or points allowed. If one defense has to try to make more stops than another, they will tire as the amount of plays stack up,. If one defense has to try to make more stops per game than another, their yards and points allowed will clearly be higher. Simple math shows that the more opportunities an opposing offense has, the better chance of them gaining more yards and scoring more points.
• Thus, defenses that have a quarterback that uses small amount of time per possession will have "worse" stats than defenses who have a quarterback that uses large amounts of time. Stats like yards allowed and points allowed is not a good way to determine if one defense is more competent or efficient than the other.
• I'm not saying the Colts would have been better off without Peyton Manning. I'm just trying to point out that comparing defenses by looking at stats like "yards allowed" and "points allowed" isn't a very good system, due to the fact some defenses have to play a lot more drives than others.